Buy Alert: USANA Health Sciences (USNA)

TRADE INSTRUCTIONS
Date: 
November 29, 2016
Name: USANA Health Sciences
Symbol: USNA
Type: Open
Limit: Buy below $66

TRADE TARGETS
Holding Period: 
3 months
Target Return: 12.1%
Annualized Return:
 48.4%
Target Price: $74
Stop Loss Level: $54

COMPANY DESCRIPTION
USANA Health Sciences develops and makes science-based nutritional and personal care products. It operates as a direct selling company in two primary geographic regions: Americas and Europe, and Asia Pacific, which includes three sub-regions: Southeast Asia Pacific, Greater China and North Asia. Link to company website.

TRADE RATIONALE
The U.S. GDP growth rate of +3.2% released this morning provides further evidence that we are now in a growth market, so it’s time to add a good old-fashioned growth stock to our portfolio and USANA fits the bill. In fact, this is the type of small-cap growth stock that mutual fund legend Peter Lynch would have loved given its PEG (Price/Earnings/Growth) Ratio of 0.56, meaning it has been growing earnings for the past five years at nearly twice the rate that the market is currently valuing them.

USANA also ranks 33rd among all 6,000+ stocks evaluated by our Rapids Profits Matrix for its healthy combination of a high Earnings Yield (EBIT divided by enterprise value including long term debt) and high Return on Total Capital (EBIT divided by net working capital plus net fixed assets). Combined with its low PEG Ratio, these metrics indicate that USANA is fundamentally undervalued relative to the overall stock market.

Another unusual aspect of USANA is that nearly all of its outstanding stock is held by institutional and mutual fund investors, so there isn’t much stock trading in the open market. That means its price movements in either direction tend to be exaggerated by its relatively small trading volume. For that reason it’s possible we may see its price spike upward in the days to come once the program trading algorithms that follow USANA adjust for its recent stock split (see note below).

NOTE: USNA just split 2:1 last week, so be careful if you rely heavily on technical data for determining entry and exit points. For example, as of this morning Yahoo Finance was showing the 50DMA near $130 and an upper Bollinger Band at $161 even though the stock is now priced closer to $64.

Stock Talk

Maria R

Maria R

bought @62.80
Thanks

black arrow

black arrow

Maria,
Wow you bt at a good price. I am looking at chart right now and have just seen the new stock.
I will wait a while and see if it goes down to the dashed middle bollinger band area which is usually also its 20 day moving average. Here is a link: http://schrts.co/BCnt6T
Here in the fer what it is worth dept is my RGR option:
RGR Apr 21 2017 60 Call today it is up 37.50 /18.29% [this was just my idea].
have a good day

black arrow

black arrow

afterthought on USNA. The important thing on the chart is the “Band Squeeze” or note the bands are contracting this means there is volatility coming which can be either with us or not. To know answer to that we need to be patient and watch the price action.
Hopefully it will be moving up, but watch prices, the main thing is recognizing the squeeze and what it means. Here is a picture for the visual folks note the chart is past history:http://stockcharts.com/articles/dont_ignore_this_chart/2012/05/a-bollinger-band-squeeze-for-google-goog.html?st=bollinger+band+squeeze

Maria R

Maria R

Hi Black arrow: Again, many thanks for your posts. Am still learning chart reading.

black arrow

black arrow

Maria,
Here are several things on a chart to understand. I have two examples of a Bollinger band Squeeze. Toward the left the color is circled in brown squeeze think bands get closer together, In this case it was followed by selling pressure or a downtrend. Note the green circle to the right it is another Squeeze, now you can see what I mean we need to follow price to see direction of the movement. That one is our present trend in BKE UPptrend. Now note the Pennant formation that is bullish when pointing down. We will get a breakout maybe tomorrow. all the symbols within the pennant are called spinning tops they show indecision. Now move to left with your eyes. see the horizontal lines with a number on each? This is called a fibonacci retracement you round off 61.8 to 62%. Next we will be shooting for 100% retracement to the 28 area.

Maria R

Maria R

Hi Black Arrow,
Thank you again for taking the time to post. I keep rereading and learning.
also trying to do my homework by reading up on charts.

Richard C.

Richard C.

Can’t find it listed ? Where do you buy it ?

Larry Johnson

Larry Johnson

Symbol is USNA.
It’s on the NYSE and any brokerage house should be able to bring it up.

black arrow

black arrow

Here is an example of how a short term time frame gives us a different picture. http://schrts.co/q7H6SE
I think I will enter a position now. For the very cautious timer you could wait til stochrsi hits 0.5

Since tomorrow is the start of a new month that is very bullish for small caps this stock may well rise.
Cheers, remember last day of month tends to be slow and first week money flow is strong

black arrow

black arrow

Hi Jim,
Just entered a position on USNA thanks for the new selection I got in at 62.15.
Have a good day

Anubis

Alpha_Dog_510

I just bought USNA @ 62.0871

Thank You, Jim

George Coughlan

George Coughlan

Hi Jim,

I’m in at 62.66. I see that on 11-3–16 Zack’s Equity Research added USNA to the Zack’s Rank #5 ( strong sell) list as their consensus estimates for USNA current year EPS has been revised 0.1%
downward over the last 30 days. The stock has dropped to the 59-60 area. Any comments?

Thanks,
George

Jim Pearce

Jim Pearce

Hi George. I have noticed that Zack’s system tends to run counter to our RPM, but that’s not surprising since we use entirely different metrics to predict future behavior. That said, I will manage this trade no differently that the others; if it closes below our stop point then I will dump it, but until then we will stay with it to see where it goes.

Janis Bell

Janis Bell

Is anyone concerned about the downward trend? I think it closed today below 60, which represents more than 5% drop on my purchase price of 63. We hang in unless it drops to -15%, hoping for a strong rebound?

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