Sell Alert: Banco Macro S.A. (BMA)

By Jim Pearce • November 10, 2016

TRADE INSTRUCTIONS

Date: November 10, 2016
Name: Banco Macro S.A.
Symbol: BMA
Type: Close
Limit: Sell at market

TRADE RATIONALE

We are closing out our position in Banco Macro since its share price did not respond as strongly as we had hoped it would to the release of its quarterly earnings report earlier this week (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/banco-macro-posts-3q-profit-231333253.html). However, it has opened higher in this morning’s trading so we will still book a small profit in it.

We issued the buy alert on BMA on October 11th with a 30 day holding period to see if it would jump on this report, and now that we know it has not we do not see the point in holding it any longer. Also, Donald Trump’s somewhat unexpected victory has triggered an even more surprising rally in U.S. stocks, so with better opportunities in our own back yard we feel the capital tied up in this Argentinian bank can be better deployed elsewhere.

To that end, please see the new buy alert also being issued today.

Stock Talk

Comments Guidelines
Anubis

Alpha_Dog_510

BMA sold ready to roll.

Thank You, Jim

Janis Bell

Janis Bell

I was so late in getting to this. Now it’s down below 72. Do you think I might do better waiting until tomorrow?

Janis Bell

Janis Bell

Hi Jim,
I was indecisive at end of day, talked to my broker, who said BMA indicators showed it was “oversold.” Not sure what this means, but I wonder if the size of our group can have this effect on the stock price and the indicators like RSI of 30.

Jim Pearce

Jim Pearce

Hi Janis. I doubt trading from our small group (we limited membership to Systematic Wealth to 300 people just for that reason) could materially impact the share price of a $4 billion market cap stock like BMA. Instead, I suspect its trading behavior this week is more a function of the perception of to what extent a Trump victory might have a deleterious effect on the increased foreign trade that Argentina is pursuing, and the trickle down impact that might have on banks like this one, which is one of the reasons why I decided not to stick with it.

black arrow

black arrow

Hi Janice,
We all must be on guard about a human nature thing; the hardest thing for us to do is SELL – if things are going against us. We can all improve in ways because we must to ‘stay in the game’. The term oversold can mean there was too much selling based on the evidence. Keep in mind we sometimes see an oversold bounce this happens when RSI gets below 30, and means it is an reaction to too much selling. look up to the October high of 81.41, the red candle. Now look at the combined next 2 candles they form a bearish Harami. The green cloud turned in to the red cloud this is a downtrend. The candles went below the red cloud. really negative . I made this chart a while ago and at the time I added a fibonacci retracement. This is in the top viewing pane I used a ‘top’ and ‘bottom’ based on numbers I was watching at the time.note where it says 61.8you round that to 62% IF there is an uptrend on any stock it should be able to retrace 62%. this would be the 79 area of price. But so far it has only been down since I did that. While we are in the top pane check the words ‘last size at top outside the viewing pane. 794 shares was the last trade last night. I think there is a group of traders who work on this stock and they know how many shres it takes to move it. move down visually MACD has been negative awhile and is a lagging indicator. PPO is negative. Below that pane pink and black lines are pop in mid and short term both down. So we see all price percentage Oscillators are down. Chaiken Money flow is brown – no $$ flowing in. Stoch RSI is a very fast moving indicator, if it is at or above 0.5 the stock iOS likely to rise.

So lets wrap this up Janice, our leader has announced we are closing the position. We don’t like selling psychologically – at a loss. Therefore we need rules. Prolific author William O’Neil gave us quite a few rules here are 2 related important ones. Sell if your stock is up 20%. Sell if your stock is down 8%. What this does is allows us to be wrong, but be able to continue. We don’t need to be right all the time if we are right 60% of the time we can do well. So here is a case where it could pay off to choose a very short time period on a chart at the open 5 or 10 minutes. You let 3 candles form. If they are all down you are out. If they are all up you could try to recoup some.

I hope this is helpful. for you. So our leaders idea is after BMA is sold then we can redeploy into a sector and stock that is going up.. William O’Neil also wrote the only good stock is one that is going up.
Cheers and don’t beat yourself up

I really don’t know what the size of our group is, but doubt if we move markets. I am looking at the chart and the candles as well as the Ichimoku cloud. There are some things that can be gleaned on the chart.

black arrow

black arrow

whoops I need to drink more coffee here is a link:http://schrts.co/KFsXFd

Jim Pearce

Jim Pearce

BA – Since I am more of a fundamentalist and not a technician, I’m not sure how much to trust the technical variables that I am following. I would like to hear your opinion as to what extent, if any, the Trump victory may temporarily invalidate some of the recent technical metrics (MA, BBs, etc.) given how much recalculating is going on at the moment? Is there any historical precedent for a major unexpected event like this (e.g., the 9/11 attacks) that have been studied to determine that? Thank you. Jim

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black arrow

Hi Jim,
First of all I hold you in high regard. Being a fundamentalist is great! My understanding of Technical analysis is the techs consider the fundamentals to be ‘baked in the cake’.
I think technical analysis is somewhat short term personally. I think someone who is schooled in fundamentals has a broader view.

I think someone who does some of each may be the best approach. I have learned a great deal from stock charts, like right now I am reading a new post by Art Hill who’s work I enjoy immensely and profit from. Here is one that is predictive you might like since its very practical it has an acronymn RRGs this stands for Relative Rotation Graphs; they help you see which stocks are leading a portfolio and which are laggards. They usually relate to a benchmark. The one I am looking at is using $SPX.
So you could make up one of these for your holdings if you wished. The one I am looking at ended today has been 10 weeks in length. The graph looks like a square with a vertical and horizontal centerline. starting on bottom right it has WEAKENING, bottom left it has Lagging. Top left it shows Improving, Top right Leading.
Leaders CAT Appl [I question that one based on price], dolman Sachs,MSFT, BA.
These went from lagging to improving MCD, DIS, KO. These went from lagging to weakening, PFE, GE went from lagging to improving.
Art says we are in a risk on mode with small-caps outperforming large caps. IWM outperforms SPY. He does not state how long any of this may last.

Now still staying in stock charts the wise gentleman who goes way beyound technical and is a prolific author; and explains things very well, most participants would not understand but for his education he imparts is John Murphy.

I bt a position in an iShares ETF this past summer the symbol is [IVE] well yesterday reading Mr. Murphy’s market message, he helped me understand things about that ETF and the tech sector as well. He created a ratio of IVE: IVW, it shows IVE rising to highest levels in nearly 2 years. He explained that which may be puzzling to some. my ETF is value where [IVW] is growth. TECHNOLOGY is largest part of growth ETF. the value is mainly made up of financials, energy, healthcare industrials. This shows tech stocks are down because many investors appear to be moving into former group that were underperforming and which may now improve. In order to accomplish this they may be jettisoning some tech holdings.

Personally I don’t think the new president will invalidate your technical metrics because I think the market reacts to data and BB’s, MA just keep track of trends. I am not aware of historical precedents for major changes in markets. Please realize I am just a student after all this is a lifelong pursuit. I just try to help a few folks if I can.

Personally I think you are doing a great job, and very pleased to have signed on I am benefitting already which is welcome after the difficult year we are now at the end of. As a former Shipfitter apprentice, and Naval Architect I like seeing steel go up in price – US steel. Its so satisfying to have earned my way through the sweat of my brow, and have had a part in building ships for the US Navy. And now to understand charts, since I am a visual type, and earn money trading steel
in my own house.
Thanks for all you do sir

Maria R

Maria R

Happy vet day, balck arrow and to all to have served

Jim Pearce

Jim Pearce

Thank you for the thoughtful reply, and as Maria said, thank you and everyone else who has served in our military on this Veteran’s Day!

black arrow

black arrow

IWM is up NASDAQ is up someone just bt 200 IWM!!
see risk is on YAHOO!

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