Buy Alert: Michael Kors Holdings (KORS)

TRADE INSTRUCTIONS
Date: October 13, 2016
Name: Michael Kors Holdings Ltd.
Symbol: KORS
Type: Open
Limit: Buy below $49

TRADE TARGETS
Holding Period: 3 months
Target Return: 11.6%
Annualized Return: 46%
Stop Loss Level: $39

TRADE RATIONALE

Michael Kors Holdings Limited is a designer, marketer, distributor and retailer of branded men’s and women’s apparel and accessories bearing the Michael Kors trade name and logo. The Company operates through three segments: retail, wholesale and licensing. The Company licenses its trademarks on products, such as fragrances, beauty, eyewear, leather goods, jewelry, watches, coats, men’s suits, swimwear, furs and ties, as well as through geographic licenses.

Until recently, KORS was priced too high to trigger a buy alert. But after peaking above $58 earlier this year, its share price has gradually declined to the mid-40s range. That values it at less than 10 times forward earnings, suggesting a lack of confidence in the next set of quarterly numbers and guidance due to be released the first week of November. According to our IDEAL Stock Rating System, KORS has a one-year price target of $67 suggesting it is severely undervalued on a fundamental basis.

This buy alert is based on one of the simplest, yet most effective elements of our Rapid Profits Matrix. It ranks every stock that trades on a U.S. exchange according to how they score for two metrics: Earnings Yield (dividing a company’s earnings before interest and taxes by its enterprise value) and Return on Total Capital (dividing a company’s earnings before interest and taxes by its tangible capital employed). According to that formula, KORS is currently ranked 8th out of more than 6,000 stocks that our RPM evaluates.  

Stock Talk

Janis Bell

Janis Bell

Hey, I’m feeling discouraged as I just joined, bought the Oct alert for BMA and two earlier ones still recommended yesterday (LMAT, RUTH) and ALL THREE are down. Makes me feel reluctant to buy more, especially as I used up all the cash in my Schwab account, and either must buy it on margin or hold off 5 days until the fund transfer is complete.

JIM: When we get these alerts before the market opens, do you want us to purchase right away?

Folks who’ve been around for awhile — is this typical, lots of going down first, did I just hit a pothole?

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Janis,
As a long time student of the markets, for ultimate conservation of your working capital – wait til after the Nov election. It’s not just this one every presidential election is a sea anchor for stock market.
Keep your powder dry fight another day
But at same time realize you are in a group with an excellent leader!

Janis Bell

Janis Bell

I went ahead and bought it. It was dropping every minute I watched, so I put in a price a bit lower 2cents than the current bid. Waiting to see if….

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Hi Janis,
Here is a candlestick lesson. Now keep in mind there are several hours left in day so a symbol can change as day goes on. Right now in the present the red candle at the bottom is called a hammer. In candlespeak it is said the Hammer hammers out the bottom. Here is a link to a chart so you know what it looks like. http://schrts.co/VaQDao If it works the way it typically does maybe tomorrow, we will see it go up a bit.

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Janios and anyone who may be interested. At this time KORS has morphed into a DragonFly Doji. Dojis can mean mean a change or indecision. For more careful traders they can wait for tom,sorrows open to see confirmation. Right now there is some buying happening here is how you can tell two ways. See the Stoch RSI it is now above 50. Art Hill calls stock rsi rsi on steroids crossing above 50 is bullish. Another way is to switch to a shorter time frame and then you can see what is actually happening are they going up or down? OK we need not wait longer. It5 is morphing back to a hammer this shows buying and I looked at a 10 minute chart it has been going up. See Ya time fer me to buy then hit the Gym
Thanks Jim Pearce

DLD

DLD

Right now i am watching as the market is going down today so i am in know hurry to buy KORS it is currently down almost 3 percent do not fear the market do not panic most of these alerts have a 3 month or more holding period i am using diversification only allocating a 1000.00 to 1500.00 per trade
just remember this is not a get rich quick scheme it requires patience

Ado Casagrande

Ado Casagrande

THE ONLY QUESTION I HAVE IS is there a time when we raise our stoploss to protect our profits or do we sell when we hit our target? just wondering

Jim Pearce

Jim Pearce

Good question. The only time I will raise my stop loss price on a stock is if/when its share price rises above my original target price prior to the end of the target holding period. Thank you.

Bruce Demko

Bruce Demko

New to following this service and, just wondering why the original alert does not have a target sell price included. Do we wait for a decision or do you already have a price in mind and do not want to disclose it?

Jim Pearce

Jim Pearce

I just added a ‘Target Price’ column to the Open Trades portfolio table, so you can now see that data on the website. Thank you for the suggestion.

Bruce Demko

Bruce Demko

Thank you Jim.

I was thinking this service may be useful for some Buy/Write type of purchases. I have had some success with using Jim Fink’s purchase suggestions to place buy writes and either let them close in one deal or roll them forward continuing to make income. I suspect however that most of the stocks you suggest won’t have the best options available due to the nature of the suggested stock.

Jim Pearce

Jim Pearce

Bruce, you are correct. A lot of the stocks our RPM identifies do not lend themselves to options, but there will be some. Also, since we are specifically targeting stocks that we think will appreciate dramatically in the near term, not sure if a buy/write strategy is the best way to play it. Might be better off going with a long call if you are looking to leverage the ROI.

Skippie2000

Brian Hale

I really hate retail stocks, but as a new subscriber, I will buy. If you are willing to accept their track record, you have to follow their lead. I am certainly hopeful that this service works well for me.

Jim Pearce

Jim Pearce

I hear you. There are a lot of major macro factors overhanging this market, not the least of which is the rapidly approaching approaching presidential election and the increasing likelihood that the Fed may raise interest rates in December. For that reason, volatility is particularly high at the moment. But higher volatility can work in both directions, so if our RPM is correct about KORS then we may be out of this position sooner than expected.

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As Williwm O’Neil prolific author said the only good stocks are the ones going up

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I have executed a position at 46.41. Time to put dog in his kennel and hit the Iron.
Thanks Jim Pearce :^)

Anubis

Alpha_Dog_510

Dog in kennel? Grrr. D.O.G is an acronym for Dedicated Online Gamer. I once worked for a gaming software developer, lost that job years ago when the bubble popped.

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Hah thats funny. I have a step son who does some of that. We need to have some fun as well as make profits..
Have a good day in this case the dog is a petite golden doodle

Anubis

Alpha_Dog_510

KORS @46.91.

Lol black arrow. Enjoy the weekend.

Thank you Jim.

Jacques

Jacques

I signed up yesterday per phone call from Paul Legrady. He said I would be contacted today but was not
I have been a long time subscriber to Personal Finance and thought this would be a good step since
I have positive confidence in this PF newsletter.
I thus called customer service and a very nice lady (she did not who Paul is) said that I was set up and told me how to log on.
I was looking for a personal touch and guide per my talk with Paul.
I took a quick look at the portfolio…and want to ask:
1. do you still recommend entry since positions are below the limit price?
2. CALM is close to the stop loss – thus what action to take if any ?
look forward to your comments and suggestions on how to have confidence that this is a
an added value step forward than just relying on the newsletter suggestions.

Jim Pearce

Jim Pearce

Hi Jacques. With regard to your two questions; (1) yes, all currently ‘Open Trades’ positions are in play, except (2) for CALM, as discussed in this recent ‘Forum’ comment: http://www.investingdaily.com/systematic-wealth/forum/29057/use-of-stop-loss-limits-for-open-portfolio-positions/. Thank you.

Paul Legrady

Jacques, please accept my apology for the delay in starting your subscription. It looks like you got set up the day after I took your order, when I told you it would take place that day. I will be sure to communicate this more clearly to our next members of Systematic Wealth. If I can be helpful in any way moving forward please feel free to reach me at 800-248-6426.

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Greetings Jacques,
I’d say here is something to consider on BMA, it is immune to American politics at this time.
Here is my chart of it. http://schrts.co/E2pXav Just check on the predicted upside I forget at the moment just cam,e in from visiting out of state.
Its definitely not too late to get a position in on KORS, its early in the retail cycle. and still at a good entry point. MACD Just flipped positive on friday which is a technical buy signaland PPO is a bit ahead since mad is a lagging indicator. here is my chart on KORS. http://schrts.co/i69IHW

I have very recently Joined systematic Wealth myself; however based on comments on where calm is at, Id say to stand aside there. We all need to be aware the presidential election year is always a sea anchor on stocks. But I also think we have an excellent leader in Jim Pearce, Jim is ‘Systematic’ so we are in good hands with his years of experience Jacques.

Welcome aboard

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I just wanted to thank all the folks who are buying the Kors clothes and accessories :^).
What a day for Kors! Don’t take my word for it http://schrts.co/i69IHW

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Hi fellow members,
I just wanted to throw a few ideas at you on Technical analysis, the candle system on my chart, and how today can propel us forward.
An idea in technical analysis is that Volume Precedes price. If you check the chart I submitted on 10/19 you can see the volume info in the volume box it was up nearly double from its 200 day moving avg of volume. Like i said Volume precedes price. What I am hinting at is if you are in you have a really good chance of making more gains today. If you are not in consider doing it like NIKE says.

Next I wanted to draw your attention to the width of yesterdays candlestick this particular style makes candles wider if volume is greater. As a guideline I was re -researching the concept of elasticity I took yesterdays open price and subtracted it from the closing price. I factored in my buy area, all I am gonna say now iOS I am expecting a great day on Kors. Also note yesterday it hit the upper Bollinger Band this is an exciting g occurrence!

I think if you are somewhat new to this you can start to understand why Jim Pearce encourages us to take a position in a timely fashion.

Happy Trading to all of you

Jim Pearce

Jim Pearce

Black Arrow – I appreciate you taking the time to educate our readers on technical trading. Even though our RPM does not use any technical indicators in determining buy and sell signals, it is still helpful for those that like to use them. I have created a new forum on Technical Trading and Charts for general educational purposes, so please feel free to post under that topic any general insights, etc. that are not pertinent to a specific holding. Jim

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Thanks Jim, It was my hope you will not be upset if I have a shorter time frame – for example last week I wanted to pay the mortgage from profits in my regular account. By using your fantastic selections I was able to do that! I think you have a tremendous service for your members based on all your years of experience. I am impressed by your background.

I just try to stimulate some ideas on our trades, maybe help a newer trader; all the while I humbly acknowledge you are the leader. And I think your system is so helpful to the members. I also acknowledge I can easily be wrong say on VLO right now it looks as though it may be forming a pennant. But for my purposes it did help me to pay my mortgage along with another stock in the portfolio. Thats really powerful for me when I can make my stocks pay my way in life. And I have you sir to personally thank for that!

DLD

DLD

Thanks to the buyout rumor reported yesterday kors expect some to take profits before the next jump

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Hi DLD,
I did not know there was a buyout rumor yesterday. One thing I noticed a few minutes ago is we are getting strong support from the 50 day moving average. Its already rising from the low of 49.34. If there is a buyout, we will be on the good side of that. What I have learned about buyouts is the holders of the company being bt will be in the enviable position.
Last trade was a buy of 300 shares!

Thanks for the info DLD

DLD

DLD

no problem the report was a buy out for 55.00 a share lets hope there is a counter offer for more i think were in a good spot right now

DLD

DLD

what do you think Jim you get better info than i is the kors buyout for real

Jim Pearce

Jim Pearce

Other than this update from CNBC (http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/19/michael-kors-shares-jump-as-ma-chatter-swirls-around-the-company.html), I have not found any substantiation of this rumor. Keep in mind that a company like KORS is constantly being evaluated as a possible M&A target, so the fact that someone may be considering a buyout offer is not surprising. But as we have seen with many other companies, those rumors do not always translate into an actual deal so only time will tell if this rumor turns out to be legitimate.

Janis Bell

Janis Bell

Hi Jim, I messed up trying to do a stop loss by doing a limit order; the end result was that my bid for this stock wasn’t filled. Because I was without internet for the week, I could not get online with anything but my phone, which isn’t set up to trade yet — now stock is above $49. Question is whether it’s still work buying today at $49.50, or if I should just pass on it. Thanks!

Jim Pearce

Jim Pearce

Hi Janis. KORS is above our buy limit price of $49, so wait to see if it drops below that level to get into it. Sometimes these rumors don’t pan out, in which case it may drop back down to where it was a few days ago.

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Hi Janis I have a suggestion for you that can work. You seem to be able to access the stock talk, on October 19 I sent in a chart which gets current info on KORS. Current price on KORS is 49.51, so follow Jims advice on price.

Even though you may be having some internet issues – like I mentioned recently your broker has knowledgeable people who will put the trade in for you [when price is right] and even go thru the steps with you. At the present time the symbol looks like a hanging man which could mean lower prices tomorrow – so don’t rush in today – listen to Jim. There is also a possibility if the symbol stays as high up against yesterdays tomorrow it could go up again. Today is a time to be patient, we never really know what may happen in the future but if it dropped to say the 50 day moving average or lower that would be a good entry.
Hope that helps a bit

Janis Bell

Janis Bell

Those charts have a lot of data! I’d like to learn how to decipher them. Any suggestions Black Arrow?

Larry Johnson

Larry Johnson

Hi Janis.
If you go to to http://www.stockcharts.com and look at the top row of buttons, the 3rd button from the left is labeled “chartschool”. Click on it and there is a wealth of info on charting and tech analysis….a lot of reading/learning but very helpful in explaining “chartology”…LOL. Charts are great tools, however, no one can totally predict the market 100% of the time.
Hope that link helps ya. Have a good eveing.

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Here is an excellent suggestion to learn more about charts. I don’t think it is a conflict for our service at systematic wealth.

Go here: http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school you can learn a lot about many subjects you are right there is a lot of info on a chart it can help us understand what is going on with holdings. The perhaps most simple type of chart is called point and figure. It is pretty old and still is in use and some entire businesses are built around it. Oh I just released without looking at it Larry has given you the same basic suggestion – well I guess if two of us mention the same source it may be a good idea. :^)

Here are two specific things related to KORS Look up Hatrami which is a two day pattern that needs confirmation. Separately look up Hanging man, if it ids the 2nd you may get another chance at a better entry point for KORS.
Have a good one

Maria R

Maria R

Thank you, Larry and Black Arrow.
I also need to learn about charts.

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Maria,
Do you think of yourself as a visual person? If so then it would be natural to pick up. it takes a bit of time, but for me it is an essential part of the whole process. Personally I like candlesticks best because as we become familiar with them, and make an effort they have predictive qualities which is useful.
I am happy to be of help to those who are interested.
Cheers

Ado Casagrande

Ado Casagrande

i,m new to all of this . that being said i would love to learn more about candelsticks… thanx for all your help

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The chart likes the bullish developments and promises more to come for KORS.
http://schrts.co/IOaPRs

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I had to update the Kors chart it was getting a bit distorted. Here are my main points: note the Hammer shape with the wording a Hammer is a significant candle. I added an approximate % rise from the top of the hammer to the top of fridays candle, 7.5% is very strong. note the converging green dashed lines this is a pennant formation typically a bullish continuation paternalist friday the 28th was a trendline breakout to the upside. Definition of an uptrend is higher highs and higher lows.

Note the blue signal line in the volume box the vertical bar graph is well above it.
Relative strength Indicator is over 50 a perfect uptrend confirmation.
The Moving avg convergence diverge box is strong.
The PPO price percent oscillator gave out a strong buy signal and below that the medium term pop in pink rose above the black long term this is ideal.
When Chaiken moolah flow is green we know large amounts of buying pressure exist.
Monday is often slow, but Nov 1 fund managers are required to put money to work, the money flow in general is strongest the first week of the month.

Abhijit D

Abhijit D

Hi Jim – KORS is heading down. If it goes back to $49 level, would it be a buy?

Jim Pearce

Jim Pearce

Yes. The buyout rumor is interesting, but was not what triggered our buy alert in the first place so our reason for buying KORS up to a price of $49 remains in tact.

Abhijit D

Abhijit D

Thanks Jim. I got into this today at $48.90. Never late than ever 🙂

Larry Johnson

Larry Johnson

Those buyout rumors stoked the flames.
Today, somebody bought the Nov. 18 $55 Call to the tune of 35,000 contracts!!!!
Those expire a week from today and are presently “out-of-the-money”.
Totally insane…..unless someone knows something the rest of us don’t.
LMVH’s Managing Director was nailed for “insider trading” about a week ago…..hmmmm.
Fasten your seat belts everyone, we may be ready to “blast off” on this one next week.

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Hi Larry,
It seemed astounding to me the number of contracts you mentioned!!!

Skippie2000

Skippie2000

This stock has been dropping badly since earnings. Do we really want to continue to hold this stock?

Jim Pearce

Jim Pearce

There is now a name to go along with the buyout rumor (http://www.thefashionlaw.com/home/report-lvmh-in-talks-to-acquire-michael-kors), and apparently somebody with a lot of money believes it based on the huge call options contract made on it (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/huge-call-buying-michael-kors-182820501.html). Even with the recent drop its still trading near our entry price, so I’m willing to wait a little longer to see if anything materializes.

Roger Hill

Roger Hill

Hi Jim,
My KORS170120C40 is down 64% (the break even price is $47.50).
If you’re still bullish I could roll this for another 4 months making my break even price $49.80 by May 19.
What do you think:are you still bullish on KORS?
Thanks.

Jim Pearce

Jim Pearce

Hi Roger. I am taking a hard look at KORS to determine if we will roll it over for another 3 months or let it expire at the end of this week. From a purely analytical perspective it still scores very highly from our RPM, but it is weak technically so I am going to watch it for a couple more days before making a decision. That said, it is up sharply today (+3.6%) on no news, but someone was buying a lot of it today (perhaps an institutional investor, given the size of the volume around 10:45 this morning?).

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