Big Gains in Pinnacle Foods, SAIA Inc. and PRA Health and a Busy Week Ahead

Last week was a busy one with earnings and trades. We had four critical earnings releases, all related to options positions. As many of you know, options prices are incredibly volatile. I’ve watched my share of profits evaporate or explode overnight.

These wild swings are why I often will book gains in options trades before the event from which I expect relevant news. My years of experience following stocks have shown me (sometimes in painful ways) how difficult it is to pinpoint the timing of an expected miss or beat on earnings.

While I have full confidence in my analysis and the diligence of my research, most companies enjoy quite a bit of wiggle room when it comes to earnings. The difficulty in timing trades is especially true when attempting to time bearish calls.

Sometimes even a positive tone or optimism for the future will overwhelm any selling due to a weak quarter. You will notice that I often choose further out expiration dates for my bearish put plays, and this is the reason.

This is what happened with VF Corp (NYSE: VFC) and Columbia Sportswear (NSDQ: COLM). Both companies reported decent quarters but their outlooks were mixed for the critical fourth quarter, when they generate the bulk of their profits.

I recommend holding on to these puts. They both are well below my recommended entry point but do not expire until mid-January. Knowing how tricky it can be to time a bearish bet on a retailer, I purposely chose these further out expiration dates.

My reaction to moves in our Pinnacle Foods (NSDQ: PF) puts and our SAIA Inc. calls (NSDQ: SAIA) illustrate how both waiting for the event and selling before the event can produce robust gains.

Pinnacle Foods announced a messy quarter. Revenue missed expectations and management’s subdued optimism for the December quarter left some investors unfulfilled. I recommended selling the puts after the earnings announcement, booking a 31% gain.

Despite the fact that SAIA was scheduled to announce earnings on Friday, I recommended selling the call options on Thursday. The trucking stocks trade in a very choppy fashion and earnings results from the group before SAIA had been mixed.

Because I was unsure how the stock would react if SAIA mentioned soft earnings due to hurricane-related service interruptions, I recommended selling the calls on the stock’s jump the day before. Subscribers who waited until Friday to sell the calls would have booked a 75% gain versus the very respectable 51% gain from the prior day but I don’t regret selling early as the gain could have easily slipped away.

You will find I am typically more conservative with options, choosing to book a near-term gain as opposed to waiting and potentially watching that gain disappear.

We have a total of NINE, count ‘em, NINE companies reporting earnings this week. Just one, Steven Madden (NSDQ: SHOO), has an option holding in the portfolio. Details on Steven Madden’s earnings call are below.

Up this week on earnings:

Monday, Oct. 30: Big Five Sporting Goods (NSDQ: BGFV)  

Tuesday, Oct. 31: Steven Madden (NSDQ: SHOO) and Systemax (NYSE: SYX)

Wednesday, Nov. 1: Criteo (NSDQ: CRTO), Mueller Water (NYSE: MWA)

Thursday, Nov. 2: Carbonite (NSDQ: CARB), Chemours (NYSE: CC) and Vulcan (NYSE: VMC)

Friday, Nov. 3: ANI Pharmaceutical (NSDQ: ANIP)

Details regarding some conference calls are below:

Tuesday, Oct. 31: (NSDQ: SHOO) 8:30 AM (EST)

Directions: A live webcast of the conference call will be available online at http://www.stevemadden.com/ under the Investor Relations section and will remain available for 30 days following the live call. A replay will also be available two hours following the call through November 30, 2017, via telephone at 1-844-512-2921 (U.S.) and 1-412-317-6671 (international) by entering the replay pin 8203375

What to Listen For:

International currently accounts for roughly 10% of Steven Madden’s sales but has been growing rapidly. What are the company’s plans to expand outside of the U.S?

How is Steven Madden weathering the wholesale channel? Which stores are doing best? How do early orders for recently acquired winter brand Blondo look?


Around the Portfolio:

PRA Health (NSDQ: PRAH) reported a terrific third quarter last week and raised numbers for the year. Third quarter earnings of $.88 were $.03 better than expected and revenue came in $100 million above estimates of $482 million.

Continued strength in new business sent future bookings up significantly. Large biotech customers continue to look to contract research organizations like PRA Health to outsource trials. The company raised the annual view to $3.31 versus estimates of $3.20.

Stock Talk

Freddie

Freddie

Hi linda, sorry to correcr you, but it seems that you forgot about SYX who will announce earnings tomorrow.

Linda McDonough

Linda McDonough

Indeed, you are correct Freddie!

Thank you for the reminder. Somehow it got lost in my transferring of data from my spreadsheet to the article. I appreciate you letting me know. I’ll update the weekly with that information.
Best,
Linda

Freddie

Freddie

*correct

Sydnee & Howard

SSA

See any reason for the 2.6%+ MWA drop today? It was just upgraded by 2 analysts and the .04 Dividend is in line with the past. Earnings coming out on Nov 1 – so apparently there are some who think the news will be bad?

Linda McDonough

Linda McDonough

I don’t see any reason for the drop outside of a slightly messy day in the market. Mueller is thinly traded and today’s volume is particularly light. I wouldn’t read too much into it. The trading into an event is not always the best indicator of the earnings result.
Best,
Linda

Linda McDonough

Linda McDonough

Hello Subscribers-
A quick note on The Chemours Company, which I believe is a great buy at this level. I’ll have more comments in Monday’s Recap but here are some thoughts as of now:

The Chemours Company (NYSE: CC) reported a good quarter Thursday night with revenue coming in slightly above estimates and earnings of $1.12 well above estimates of $1.04. Yet the stock is down almost 10%.

From the best I can tell, the stock is trading down due to concerns that pricing on the company’s Opteon refrigerant with automotive manufacturers is slightly below open market pricing.

In addition, the company realized higher prices on the old version of refrigerant, a product which is being phased out due to environmental regulations. The bump in these prices is simply due to less availability and is not part of the company’s long-term strategy.

Its focus is on growing Opteon sales and profitability, goals the company is meeting each quarter. I think the worry is overdone and the stock is a great buy here, as the U.S. follows the same regulatory framework that Europe has in eliminating the use of old refrigerants. These need to be replaced by either Chemour’s Opteon product or Honeywell’s (NYSE: HON) version of a “green” refrigerant.

As a reminder, global environmental regulations require that no new R-22 refrigerant (the old refrigerant product) can be manufactured or imported into the US or Canada by January 1, 2020.

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