Changes in Midstream

PBF Logistics (NYSE: PBFX) reported flat distributable cash flow in the first half of 2016 from a year earlier and tempered distribution growth for the second quarter in a row to approximately 10% annualized, less than half the prior rate . The rising interest expense and unit count left second-quarter distribution coverage at 1.17x, down from 1.70x a year earlier. The partnership subsequently acquired a 50% stake in a crude pipeline used to supply its sponsor’s recently acquired Torrance, Calif., refinery, issuing more units to cover roughly half of the $175 million price tag. The unit price has changed little in the last month, leaving the annualized yield at 8.5%. Growth pick PBFX is a Hold.

Plains All American Pipeline (NYSE: PAA) reported a 7% year-over-year decline in distributable cash flow for its second quarter and reiterated annual guidance  for more of the same ahead of an industry recovery now expected a year from now. That forecast implies coverage of 1.05x on the reduced distribution unveiled in the July restructuring, and that doesn’t include in-kind distributions to holders of its preferred units, so Plains is still not quite making what it pays.  So it’s contemplating more asset sales and perhaps taking on a strategic outside investor while it waits for new projects to come online and for oil shipping to recover. The unit price is down 9% in the last month amid a pullback in the price of oil, most of the way back down to where it was before the distribution cut in mid-July. November’s reduced payout of 55 cents per unit works out to an annualized yield of 8% at the current price. Growth pick PAA is a Buy below $31.50.

Plains GP Holdings (NYSE: PAGP) is set to become a dividend-paying tracking stock for PAA following the expected closing at the end of November of the deal restructuring its general partner interests. It has gained 15% since the announcement versus less than 3% for PAA, mostly by holding steady over the past month while PAA deflated. Its own reduced distribution works out to an annualized yield of 7.4% at the current share price. PAGP will report its returns of capital (as opposed to dividends for at least the next eight years) on form 1099, which will make it popular with mutual and closed-end funds as well as individual investors seeking income for tax-deferred IRA accounts. Growth pick PAGP is a Buy below $12.   

SemGroup (NYSE: SEMG) reported predictably weak second-quarter results weighed down by competition from rival crude shippers and a gas processing plant outage. Its planned acquisition of the affiliated Rose Rock Midstream (NYSE: RRMS) MLP is set to close on Sept. 30, producing tax and distribution savings for the parent company. Following the all-stock deal, SemGroup plans annual growth of 8% for a dividend currently yielding an annualized 5.4%, while maintaining 1.5x dividend coverage. Those plans will be aided by  the completion early next year of a pipeline system serving two Motiva refineries in Louisiana, even as SemGroup pursues the sale of its Mexican asphalt terminals. The share price is up 3% in the last month and 15% in 2016, but still down 35% over the last year. Growth pick SEMG is a Hold.

Spectra Energy (NYSE: SE) surprised and pleased the market by agreeing to an all-stock $28 billion merger with Canadian crude pipeline giant Enbridge (NYSE: ENB) instead of pursuing an acquisition of its own. As we noted in a recent update, the deal will diversify Spectra’s commodity and geographical exposure while improving dividend coverage, one reason management agreed to exchange its pricey equity for Enbridge’s recently discounted shares at a relatively modest markup. Spectra’s stock was up 51% year-to-date before the deal announcement, and has rallied a further 17% since. At the planned exchange ratio of 0.984 Enbridge shares per Spectra share, each Spectra share should generate $1.82 (U.S.) next year. That prospective 4.3% yield assumes a steady exchange rate for the Canadian dollar and the 15% dividend hike Enbridge plans next year if the deal is concluded. The payout ratio would be 50-60%, well below Spectra’s planned 83% this year. Conservative pick SE remains a Hold.

Spectra Energy Partners (NYSE: SEP) saw a very different market reaction to the Enbridge offer than its sponsor, depreciating 6% since the announcement. Investors are nervous about Enbridge’s commitment to continued growth given its own MLP, along with a tracking stock and a separate Canadian income vehicle. Those concerns seem likely to abate in time, and Enbridge has said it has no immediate plans to consolidate the MLPs. In the meantime, the yield is up to 6.2%; it’s growing 7% annually with ample coverage. Recent Conservative Portfolio addition SEP is a Buy below 50.

Sunoco Logistics Partners (NYSE: SXL) has been discounted 9% since Sept. 8, the day before Dakota Access Pipeline lost its permit to build the controversial segment crossing the Missouri just upriver from a Sioux reservation. Although it’s only a minority investor in the pipeline, SXL would greatly benefit from the additional crude volumes the project would direct toward its terminals. The partnership has suffered from low oil prices and teething pains for its new liquids pipelines, but still earned enough in the first half of the year to full cover a distribution increased 14% over the last 12 months. At the current unit price, the annualized yield is up to 7.1%. Conservative pick SXL is upgraded to a Buy below $33.

TerraForm Power (NASDAQ: TERP) has just launched its widely anticipated search for a buyer either of the entire company or the controlling stake held by bankrupt sponsor SunEdison, after releasing preliminary second-quarter results. These showed a negative number for cash available for distribution as a result of the additional collateral the company had to put up in the wake of SunEdison’s bankruptcy. Excluding that drain, cash available for distribution would have amounted to $55 million, which works out to 39 cents per share and an annualized yield of 11.6% at the current share price. Excluding a further $32 million in principal debt repayments would boost the indicative yield above 18%. Aggressive pick TERP is the #7 Best Buy below $15.

TransCanada (NYSE: TRP) shares are back at a price level they only exceeded briefly in 2013 and again right before the shale bubble burst the following year. In June, the Canadian pipeline giant completed its $14 billion acquisition of Columbia Pipeline Group, diversifying its footprint with a gas transmission line stretching from Louisiana to New York and a distribution system overlapping the Marcellus and Utica shales. Earnings excluding special items have been flat this year versus a year ago, but distributable cash flow excluding Columbia acquisition costs still provided 1.76x coverage for the current 3.7% dividend yield. The company has forecast annual dividend growth of 8-10% through 2020. Growth pick TRP is a Hold.

Stock Talk

Bill Carr

Bill Carr

Question, while not a true energy company, Chicago Bridge and Iron (CBI) is a solid infrastructure company with a ton of business tied to the energy sector. What are your thoughts on CBI?

Igor Greenwald

Igor Greenwald

We recommended it a few years ago with good early results, but then earnings disappointed and by the time we recommended selling it in early 2015 it had turned into a loser for us. Stock’s even lower now and the chart still looks awful for this complicated story with lots of moving parts, complex accounting and capital spending cycle exposure. On the plus side, CBI looks fundamentally cheap. But it could certainly get cheaper and I’m not a fan of this particular stock or the long-term capital spending optimism required to buy it here. Berkshire Hathaway got out earlier this year after a two-year holding period that started well around the same time ours did but ended up even worse.

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