Sturm, Ruger & Co.

According to conventional wisdom, Donald Trump’s victory was supposed to suppress gun sales for companies like Sturm, Ruger & Co. (RGR) because the odds of stricter gun control laws should be considerably diminished under an NRA-friendly administration. Sales of firearms were running high in the months leading up to the election, as gun owners stocked up on weapons believed to be at risk of becoming outlawed under a Clinton presidency.

If the Black Friday sales figures are accurate, then it appears gun owners have found a new reason to want those same firearms because gun sales continued to grow at a record pace in the days following Thanksgiving. According to data the FBI released last week, the number of criminal background checks, which is a prerequisite of gun sales, was 14% higher this November compared to the same month last year, and nearly 10% higher than October.

We bought RGR one week after the election, when its share price dropped to its lowest level since the beginning of the year. So far, it has traded in a narrow range despite strong post-election gun sales, but we think that will change once analysts realize there is more at work here than simply a knee-jerk reaction to fears over future legislation. We still have five months left on our target holding period, but I suspect we may be able to close out this trade in February after the next set of quarterly results are released, so hold your fire until then.

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