Selling Into Strength

Three of our equity positions have passed their target holding periods. I held on to them so they would benefit from the January rally, but it is now time to cut them loose.

H&R Block (HRB)

Back in November, it appeared HRB would soon reach our target price when it briefly crested above $29. However, the fourth quarter correction proved to be too strong of a gravitational force and HRB was pulled down with the overall market despite releasing decent quarterly results in early December.

At this point, HRB has settled into a narrow trading range near $24. That is about what we paid for it five months ago, so the equity half of this trade will be a wash. If you are looking for a reason to hang onto it a bit longer in hopes of netting a gain, the company should be releasing its next set of quarterly results in early March. Of course, those figures will not include H&R Block’s busiest time of the year – tax season – but the report may include guidance for the remainder of the year that pushes HRB higher.

Sell H&R Block.

Hanesbrands (HBI)

At a share price below $12, this trade was inside out when the stock market bottomed out on December 24. Since then, HBI has rallied more than 50% to climb above $18 after reporting stronger than expected Q4 financial results. Turns out, people still buy underwear even when the stock market is getting soiled.

Given HBI’s huge comeback, I do not see the impetus for much more upside in the near future. This week’s news that retail sales in December were much lower than expected will put a damper on the entire sector. Although we will end up realizing only a small profit on this trade, some gain is better than no gain at all.

Sell Hanesbrands.

Invesco (IVZ)

Even with a 20% bounce from IVZ over the past seven weeks, we will still lose money on this trade. We opened this position in August with the belief that a fourth-quarter stock market correction would nudge investors into the type of market-neutral funds that Invesco manages.

I was right about the correction, but wrong about the way investors would react to it. Instead of repositioning money into funds that perform well under adverse conditions, a lot of it was pulled out of the market altogether. I still believe Invesco will report strong operating results once the OppenheimerFunds acquisition closes, but that may not start showing up in the numbers until the second half of this year.

Sell Invesco.

Stock Talk

Pierce I.

Pierce I.

“In all three cases, we sold the corresponding call options for a profit due to their higher volatility”.
According to my records, I lost money on all three of these option trades???

Jim Pearce

Jim Pearce

My mistake, which I will correct. I did close out the HBI trade for a big gain in SW (https://www.investingdaily.com/systematic-wealth/alerts/42517/options-close-alert-hanesbrands-hbi/) and I closed out an option position on HRB in my other trading service, Income Millionaire for a profit but did not do so for SW. My apologies for the error.

Pierce I.

Pierce I.

Thanks Jim. My mistake also on the HBI, I did have a profit on that, but miscoded the performance section of my spreadsheets. My bad. Just lost on the other two.

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