Why Criteo Got Clobbered, Gap Grew and More..

Many of you who have been subscribers for a while know that I am a regular yoga practitioner. Just this weekend I spent some time focusing on drishti or yoga gaze. The idea is that the spot to which you are looking impacts the shape and balance of your pose.

The same can be said for a portfolio. If you are a day-trader, your drishti is near, maybe a few days or hours in the future. Super long-term value investors focus their gaze way out to five years on the horizon.

Most analysts who seek growth at a reasonable price (like we do at Profit Catalyst Alert), have a drishti that looks out one to two years to determine the fair value of a stock.

This process got me thinking about how the drishti of our portfolio changes over time. You see, the stock market is a forward-looking animal and its drishti is continually creeping forward. However, there are blocks on the calendar when the market’s outlook jumps in larger steps.

As we turn the bend on third-quarter earnings, analysts and portfolio managers will automatically start looking out to 2019 earnings scenarios. Despite the fact that two more quarters need to be reported for this year, 2017 estimates have already lost some influence on stock prices.

This doesn’t mean that a significant beat or miss for the third or fourth quarter won’t flip a stock around. Instead, it means that longer-term investors will base valuations on growth in 2018 and 2019.

I’ve been working hard at pulling together many new names for us and am eager to share them with you. We’ve had many options trades over the last few weeks as well as some pruning out of old names.

Just last week we sold the Granite (NYSE: GVA) calls for a two-week, 80% gain. Integrated Device Technology (NSDQ: IDTI), a stock I’ve stuck with for almost one year, was sold due to a lack of catalyst and some worrisome trends in its balance sheet.

As soon as I’ve fine-tuned my analysis on some new picks, you’ll be alerted immediately.

 

Around the Portfolio:

Chemours Company (NYSE: CC) received bullish commentary from Citi analyst P.J. Juvekar after meeting with the company. He said Chemours’ Opteon refrigerant story is underappreciated, as the market size for end-market applications will likely be bigger than analysts are estimating.

The analyst adds that CEO Mark Vergnano “seemed quite confident” the company would be able to negotiate successfully with environmental agencies and that the TiO2 (Chemour’s specialized coating product for industrial use) manufacturing cycle is moving in the right direction. He reiterates a Buy rating on Chemours with a $59 price target.

The news that the U.S. administration is looking for ways to remain in the Paris Climate Agreement to ameliorate climate change might give Chemours’ stock a lift. While in practice a change by the U.S. would have little quantifiable impact on Chemours’ earnings, the U.S. supporting such an agreement should be interpreted as a long-term positive.

Criteo (NSDQ: CRTO) dropped as much as 14% last week before a bounce Friday left it down just 4%. The stock got hit for two reasons, and while both add risk to the story, I do not think either is significant enough to sell the stock.

The first reason is that Apple introduced Intelligent Tracking Prevention (ITP) on its newest version of Safari. This news is no surprise. Criteo mentioned it in its most recent 10Q filing and has been discussing the possible ramifications with investors.

Criteo has weathered similar storms before and has succeeded in satisfying both advertising customers and publishers who are eager to earn ad dollars from their websites. Analyst Andy Hargreaves at KeyBanc recommends the stock on the drop noting Criteo has a workaround that he believes will prove effective with direct publisher relationships. The analyst views Criteo’s risk/reward as attractive and keeps an Overweight rating on the name with a $62 price target.

The second reason for the weakness is a bearish report put out by Gotham City Research. The report is free and available online. It purports that Criteo is padding revenue with fake clicks. Shops like Gotham typically short a stock and then present their research via the web.

I’ve read through the detailed report. While the technical footnotes are impressive, I’m not convinced that Criteo is bamboozling its clients. It has a long list of sophisticated clients and retention greater than 90%. There has been little pressure on metrics that would support Gotham’s research.

Just as an FYI, Gotham announced that it has the second part of its report ready to be released later this week so you might see Criteo under more pressure.

I have a call into management, who is likely swamped with investor calls, but will report back if and when I get a reply. Based on the stock jumping Friday, I expect that management has been defending itself with a robust response.

Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) continues to walk higher. Brokerage firm Jefferies upped its Gap target to $39 from $35 and adds it to the firm’s Franchise Pick list The analyst notes his sum-of-the-parts analysis implies 50%-plus upside.

Smart Sand (NSDQ: SND) was finally acting like a champ last week until the Wall Street Journal knocked it down with an article Friday hailing new sand production in Texas. This new source of production is not a new story.

Producers of lower quality, less effective sand have been opening mines that are closer to the Permian Basin in Texas where most fracking occurs. The idea is that the lower transportation costs outweigh the increased volume needed to generate the same returns as the higher quality sand that Smart Sand produces.

Smart Sand’s mines are in Wisconsin, so far from the Permian Basin, but on a Class-1 rail line. The logistics of getting this heavy product from the mine to the usage site are critical.

While I agree that some local sand will fill a small portion of demand, I do not believe it will displace the need for Smart Sand’s product. The company has been working hard to keep up with demand from customers.

Smart Sand almost quadrupled earnings last quarter and is expected to grow earnings 150% in 2018 yet trades with a price to earnings ratio of 7. I think the stock’s current valuation reflects a very worst case scenario.

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