Winnebago Is Falling Hard And That’s Good News For Us

Winnebago (NYSE:WGO) has finally started to drop and I expect it will be weaker today due to a downgrade from Outperform to Market Perform by BMO Capital. The brokerage firm lowered the price target by 28% to $29. The firm is worried that Winnebago’s turnaround could be stalling out.

Competitor Thor Industries (NYSE: THO) reported earnings earlier this week.  Data from the company’s written Q and A (it does not host a live investor call) was mixed. Although Thor beat revenue estimates, earnings were only a penny better than expected due to lower product margins.

The company blamed the lower product margins on a continued shift towards lower priced RVs. Its motorized RVs, the category that Winnebago competes in, saw overall profit margins drop from 8.4% last year to 6% this year.

However, this negative trend is somewhat offset by strong demand. Revenue for Class A and Class C motor-homes was strong. Commentary focused on a continued shift, even within the motorized home category, towards lower priced models with less bells and whistles. These stripped-down models produce lower profit margins.

Despite the good numbers, Thor was down 2.5% after the close, an indication that this group is priced to perfection.

In addition, Camping World Holdings (NYSE: CWH) reported earnings late Wednesday. Camping World is an RV dealership so has the most up to date information on consumer demand. It missed analysts’ revenue estimates as consumers opted for lower priced towable RVs. As I’ve noted before Winnebago operates predominantly in the large, higher priced motorized part of the market.

I’m waiting to see how Winnebago trades on the open to determine when to sell these puts, which expire next Thursday. They are hovering in the money right now, as our strike price is $29.

Stock Talk

Moderator - Phil Doty

Phil Doty

WGO did not seem to stay down as we expected any thoughts on next steps?

Linda McDonough

Linda McDonough

This has been a very frustrating position. The whole RV group was falling apart but WGO did not go down enough to squeak out a profit. In retrospect I should have sold these on Monday. We would have taken a loss but not a huge one. I’ll be closing this out today.
Linda

James Willson

James Willson

Linda,
I wanted to let you know that I did very well with my WGO options trades. I was lucky enough to sell 5 $29 Mar 17 PUTS on Tuesday the 14th for only a $25 loss. I also sold 4 $32 Mar 17 PUTS on Tuesday the 14th for a $984 gain. I had asked you a few weeks back if you though I should by more options since the $29 options had dropped. You said yes and I did.

Thank you,
Jim Willson.

John

John

Hi Linda,

Fortunately for me I made my largest purchase to date on WGO. I know the last post you said you were going to close these out today. Will we receive instructions on how to close this out today?

Also on the ANIP I have a $12,000 loss on paper right now and I don’t be leave selling stock because it went down. Any more insight on this particular stock?

Thank you
John

Linda McDonough

Linda McDonough

John,

You should be seeing instructions on the Winnebago calls which will expire worthless tonight unless the stock drops below $29. You can see my commentary on this trade but it has been a very rough one. Unfortunately the nature of options is that their value can fluctuate so rapidly in such a short period of time catching the best exit point is difficult when we get close to expiration.

On the ANIP I still love the stock. The drop on earnings was due to a significant change in the company’s expected tax rate. Due to the country location of company’s subsidiary that owns the new corticotropin drug candidate, taxes were and will be much higher than anticipated. While higher taxes is not a good thing, the company’s revenue and operating metrics look great. I have found that most companies develop tax strategies that lower this rate over time.

I will keep you up to date on any new developments with ANIP.

Best,
Linda

John

John

Thank you Linda for your prompt reply .

John

John

Correction; and that should say unfortunately for me

John

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