Australian GDP Growth Is 0.6 Percent Quarter over Quarter, 3.1 Percent Year over Year

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported this week that the economy in the Land Down Under expanded at a rate of 0.6 percent during the last three months of 2012 compared to the July-through-September period.

ABS data show that gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 3.1 percent during the 12 months ended Dec. 31, 2012.

The quarter-over-quarter rate of growth was basically in line with expectations of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News Service. Australian GDP grew by 0.7 percent during the third quarter of 2012.

The annual figure of 3.1 percent is basically in line with Australia’s long-term trend rate of growth. And it means that the “Lucky Country” has now posted 21 consecutive years of GDP growth, which is something no other economy in the developed world can match.

Australia grew by 3.6 percent in 2011, beating out Norway’s 3.2 percent expansion to lead major industrialized nations.

The ABS GDP data also illustrate, once again, the importance of resources to the Australian economy. The resources sector employs nearly a tenth of the country’s labor force and accounts for about a fifth of gross domestic product.

During the fourth quarter, despite continuing efforts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to effect through interest rate cuts a rebalancing that better favors domestic manufacturers, exports were the largest contributor to growth in the quarter.

Shipments abroad of coal and iron ore drove a 3.3 percent increase in overall exports, according to the ABS, the second-fastest quarterly increase in almost a decade. Exports added 0.7 percentage points to the overall quarterly growth rate.

A series of cuts by the RBA to its overnight cash rate that’s taken the benchmark from 4.75 percent as of November 2011 to a present level of 3 percent has apparently yet to be felt at home.

Final demand in resource-focused Western Australia and the Northern Territory grew by 14.2 percent and 32.8 percent, respectively in the fourth quarter from a year earlier. By contrast, manufacturing-heavy Victoria saw a 0.1 percent decline and similarly situated Tasmania contracted by 4.6 percent.

Household spending, meanwhile, was up just 0.2 percent quarter over quarter, adding 0.1 point to the overall rate of growth. Australia’s household savings ratio declined to 10.1 percent from 10.3 percent in the third quarter.

Non-dwelling construction slumped 8.9 percent, subtracting 0.8 percentage points from GDP growth. Machinery and equipment fell 3.3 percent, subtracting 0.2 points.

The overall GDP figure was helped by the fact that public spending soared 24.6 percent, adding 1.1 points, on the transfer of an unidentified asset from private industry to state government.

In a statement released following the ABS report, Australian Treasurer Wayne Swan said, “Australia has managed to achieve solid growth in the December quarter at a time when around half of all advanced economies contracted, including five major advanced economies.”

Mr. Swan–a cabinet member in Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s beleaguered government and therefore predisposed to cheerleading, though the facts are on his side–added that “Australia’s around-trend growth rate over the past year is more than four times the OECD average.”

On Tuesday, March 5, ahead of the ABS’ GDP report, the RBA held its overnight cash rate steady at 3 percent. The central bank cut its benchmark to this level, a half-century low and equal to what it was during the depths of the Great Financial Crisis, in December and has signaled its readiness to further reduce it should economic conditions warrant.

This week, however, Governor Glenn Stevens emphasized allowing the impact of the 175 basis points of cuts from November 2011 through December 2012 to make its way into the domestic economy.

In his most recent statement on monetary policy Mr. Stevens noted, “During 2012, there was a significant easing in monetary policy. Though the full impact of this will still take more time to become apparent, there are signs that the easier conditions are having some of the expected effects.”

The RBA, taking note of “stabilization” of conditions around the world, including “moderate” US growth, “robust” growth in China and “considerably reduced” financial strains in Europe, also pointed out that commodity prices “are little changed recently, at reasonably high levels.”

Inflation expectations remain within the RBA’s target band, and the central bank still forecasts growth for 2013–about 2.5 percent–below long-term trend. Taking all this into account, Mr. Stevens still believes “an accommodative stance of monetary policy is appropriate.”

As well, indicating he remains dovish, Mr. Stevens noted, “The inflation outlook, as assessed at present, would afford scope to ease policy further, should that be necessary to support demand.” Nevertheless, the full RBA board found it “prudent” to leave its cash rate at 3 percent.

The RBA, which meets 11 times a year, or once a month except in January, will make its next monetary decision on April 2, 2013.

Earnings Highlights

In The Roundup section of today’s Down Under Digest, which is available only to subscribers to Australian Edge, we report on earnings for the last eight companies in the AE Portfolio to post results during the recently concluded reporting season.

Six of the eight announced dividend increases along with results.

AGL Energy Ltd (ASX: AGK, OTC: AGLNF, ADR: AGLNY), one of Australia’s largest gas and electricity distributors, boosted its fiscal 2013 interim dividend by 6.7 percent. AGL will pay AUD0.30 per share on April 4, 2013, to shareholders of record as of March 12, 2013. AGL shares traded ex-dividend on the Australian Securities Exchange as of March 5.

Natural gas distribution and pipeline company Envestra Ltd (ASX: ENV, OTC: EVSRF) announced a 3.4 percent increase in its interim dividend. Envestra will pay AUD0.03 per share on April 30, 2013, to shareholders of record as of March 22. That compares to an interim dividend of AUD0.029 paid in fiscal 2012.

M2 Telecommunications Group Ltd (ASX: MTU, OTC: MTCZF) also boosted its interim dividend, a 15.3 percent increase from AUD0.086732 for the first half of fiscal 2012 to AUD0.10 per share for the first half of fiscal 2013. Management’s guidance for the full year augurs more payout growth, too.

Solid operating results for Ramsay Health Care Ltd (ASX: RHC, OTC: RMSYF), Australia’s largest owner/operator of private hospitals, drove a 13.7 percent increase in its interim dividend, from AUD0.255 paid for the first half of fiscal 2012 to AUD0.29 for the first half of fiscal 2013. The AUD0.29 per share will be paid March 27, 2013, to shareholders of record on March 8. Ramsay shares traded ex-dividend as of March 4.

Movie theater and hotel operator Amalgamated Holdings Ltd (ASX: AHD, OTC: None) boosted its payout in respect of fiscal 2013 first-half results by 7.1 percent to AUD0.15 per share from AUD0.14 a year ago.

And, despite the fact that it booked a net loss of USD2.99 billion on asset writedowns of USD14.4 billion, Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO, NYSE: RIO) confirmed a final dividend of USD0.9167 per share, up from a final dividend of USD0.842. The full-year dividend of USD1.67 per share is 15 percent higher than 2011.

The Roundup

AGL Energy Ltd (ASX: AGK, OTC: AGLNF, ADR: AGLNY) reported a statutory net profit after tax (NPAT) of AUD364.7 million for the six months ended Dec. 31, 2012, a 211.7 percent increase over the first half of fiscal 2012.

The higher fiscal 2013 first-half number reflects changes in the fair value of electricity derivative contracts and includes operating earnings from the Loy Yang A power plant acquired June 29, 2012.

Revenue for the period was up 37.5 percent to AUD4.97 billion. Underlying profit, which is NPAT adjusted for items and exclusive of non-cash derivatives, of AUD279.4 million was up 20 percent over the prior corresponding period. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) were AUD0.665, a 171.4 percent increase, while underlying EPS ticked up by 4.7 percent to AUD0.51.

AGL’s customer base expanded by 56,700, or 1.6 percent, on strong growth in New South Wales electricity accounts. Management noted increased competition in the New South Wales gas and Victoria electricity markets.

Management declared an interim dividend of AUD0.30 per share, which will be paid April 4, 2013, to shareholders of record as of March 12, 2013. AGL shares traded ex-dividend on the Australian Securities Exchange as of March 5.

The fiscal 2013 interim dividend rate represents a 6.7 percent increase over the fiscal 2012 interim dividend of AUD0.28076 per share. The payout ratio for the current period, based on underlying EPS, was 58.8 percent.

AGL’s gearing ratio–or net debt as a percentage of total capitalization–was up slightly to 26.2 percent from 26.1 percent at the end of fiscal 2012. The company has no major debt maturities until July 2014.

Management reported strong growth on the Merchant side of the business, supported by the contribution from Loy Yang A to the company’s portfolio of generation assets. Owned or controlled assets posted a 100 percent increase in generation during the period. The Macarthur wind farm, meanwhile, contributed 127.7 gigawatt hours of electricity since coming on line Sept. 30, 2012.

Retail earnings before interest and taxation (EBIT) growth of 14.7 percent excludes the impact of carbon and transfer price timing differences. Operating EBIT from the segment was down by 23 percent, though timing differences that took a AUD68 million chunk out of the bottom line will reverse in the second half of fiscal 2013.

Operating cash flow was up by AUD492.4 million to AUD644.8 million due to improved earnings and a working capital benefit from carbon, as payment of 75 percent of the carbon liability related to Australia’s new tax on emissions isn’t required until the second half of the year.

Management reaffirmed previous guidance for full-year underlying NPAT of AUD590 million to AUD640 million and expects “continued growth” in the second half despite its forecast that energy demand will remain “subdued.”

Management noted that the Retail segment’s contribution for fiscal 2013 should surpass fiscal 2012 following the recovery of carbon costs and the reversal of transfer pricing in South Australia in the second half of the current year.

Based on the 6.7 percent dividend increase, AGL Energy is now a buy under USD17.25 on the ASX, which is approximately AUD17.70 based on the prevailing exchange rate, using the symbol AGK and on the US over-the-counter (OTC) market using the symbol AGLNF.

AGL also trades on the US OTC market as an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) under the symbol AGLNY. AGL’s ADR–which represents one ASX-listed ordinary share–is also a buy under USD17.25.

Envestra Ltd (ASX: ENV, OTC: EVSRF) announced a 3.4 percent increase in its interim dividend along with solid fiscal 2013 first-half numbers.

The natural gas distribution and pipeline company will pay AUD0.03 per share on April 30, 2013, to shareholders of record as of March 22. That compares to an interim dividend of AUD0.029 paid in fiscal 2012.

Management reported 45 percent growth in NPAT to AUD59.1 million on total revenue of AUD273.7 million, which was up 12 percent. Cash flow from operations increased by 5 percent to AUD135.7 million. Volume and tariff increases drove numbers higher compared to the first half of fiscal 2012. Envestra added 13,000 new customers during the period.

Management also noted a 4 percent reduction in net finance costs and forecast further borrowing cost savings in the second half of the year.

Envestra boosted capital expenditure by 24 percent to AUD102.2 million, part of a long-term effort to grow its asset base. The company is on track to spend AUD230 million for the full fiscal year. Much of the CAPEX effort during the six months of the year focused on the replacement of 175 kilometers of gas mains.

Management also highlighted capacity enhancements on the Dandenong-to-Crib Point pipeline in Victoria and the commencement of work on a seven-kilometer transmission line in Adelaide.

Cash available for distribution to shareholders was flat at AUD120.3 million. The payout ratio for the period based on distributable cash was 37.9 percent.

The success of Envestra’s continuing effort to strengthen its balance sheet was recognized by S&P in November with an upgrade to the company’s credit outlook to “positive.”

Management reaffirmed full-year profit guidance of “at least” AUD100 million.

The modest increase in the interim dividend merits a modest increase in our buy-under target. Envestra is now a buy on dips below USD0.85 on the ASX using the symbol ENV and on the US OTC market using the symbol EVSRF.

M2 Telecommunications Group Ltd (ASX: MTU, OTC: MTCZF) also boosted its interim dividend, a 15.3 percent increase from AUD0.086732 for the first half of fiscal 2012 to AUD0.10 per share for the first half of fiscal 2013.

Management reported NPAT increased by 47 percent to AUD24.7 million, as the acquisition of Primus Telecom Holdings Ltd, completed in June 2012, continues to transform the company. Revenue for the six months ended Dec. 31, 2012, surged by 65 percent to AUD305.2 million, while EBITDA for the period was up 99 percent to AUD55.1 million. EBITDA margin pushed out to 18 percent from 14.9 percent a year ago.

EPS were up 16 percent to AUD0.157, while underlying EPS grew by 32 percent to AUD0.20.

As of Dec. 31, 2012, M2 had cash on hand of AUD29.6 million, up from AUD16.7 million a year ago. Net debt declined to AUD116.2 million from AUD125.3 million as of June 30, 2012.

Management reiterated guidance for full-year results, with revenue forecast to by AUD610 million to AUD650 million versus AUD393.5 million in fiscal 2012. The midpoint-growth figure is 60 percent. Management expects EBITDA to expand by approximately 88 percent to AUD108 to AUD118 million and EBITDA margin to be 17.9 percent versus 15.3 percent in fiscal 2012.

NPAT and underlying NPAT are forecast to grow by 32 percent and 52 percent, respectively, while EPS and underlying EPS are on track to increase by 13 percent and 24 percent, respectively.

M2 plans capital expenditures in fiscal 2013 equal to 3 percent of revenue, a 131 percent increase over fiscal 2012. Free cash flow is forecast to surge by 53 percent over fiscal 2012 levels to AUD51 million to AUD56 million.

M2 Telecommunications is now a buy on dips below USD4 on the ASX (approximately AUD4.10) using the symbol MTU and on the US OTC market using the symbol MTCZF.

Ramsay Health Care Ltd (ASX: RHC, OTC: RMSUF) reported core net profit after tax from continuing operations (before non-core items) of $148.2 million for the six months ended Dec. 31, 2012, a 12.3 percent increase over the prior corresponding period.

Core EPS were AUD0.691, up 13.7 percent from AUD0.608 a year ago and ahead of guidance management issued in August 2012. These solid results prompted a 13.7 percent increase in the interim dividend, from AUD0.255 paid for the first half of fiscal 2012 to AUD0.29 for the first half of fiscal 2013. The AUD0.29 per share will be paid March 27, 2013, to shareholders of record on March 8. Ramsay shares traded ex-dividend as of March 4.

Australia’s largest private hospital owner/operator recorded a statutory NPAT of AUD138.4 million, a 10.1 percent increase from the first half of fiscal 2012.

Management noted “solid performance” in all divisions, citing the “brownfield” expansion program for particular success. Ramsay continues to add capacity to meet rising health care demand in its markets–Australia, England, France and Indonesia–and spent another AUD91 million during the first half of the year on such efforts.

Private health insurance membership in the key Australia market remains strong, as 46.9 percent of the population has hospital treatment insurance and despite challenges presented by changes to private health care policy in recent years. Demand for health care continues to increase with an aging and expanding population, putting Ramsay in a good position to benefit.

Ramsay’s Australia business posted revenue growth of 7 percent and EBIT growth of 10 percent. Hospital-level EBITDA margins increased 50 basis points from 18.1 percent to 18.6 percent. The Indonesian business also delivered strong operating results for the half-year. In local currency terms–the Indonesian rupiah–revenue grew 11 percent and EBIT grew 46 percent during the period. EBITDA margins rose to 16.3 percent from 14.5 percent.

Ramsay’s UK business performed to expectations with revenue increasing by 1.5 percent to GBP179.4 million. Similarly, EBITDAR rose by 1.5 percent to GBP44.7 million. Although private medical insured (PMI) admissions remain subdued, Ramsay UK hospitals recorded a 9 percent rise in NHS admissions.

NHS admissions now comprise close to 70 percent of total admissions to Ramsay’s UK facilities. UK operating margins before rent (EBITDAR) remain strong at approximately 25 percent. Ramsay Santé also performed to expectations with EBITDAR increasing by 3.4 percent to EUR12.6 million.

Looking forward, management continues to see “positive market dynamics” for its business around the world, highlighted by “an appetite for governments to engage with the private health care sector.”

Ramsay’s ongoing brownfield expansion program puts it in good position to grow along with aging populations in its key markets. Management continues as well to evaluate opportunities in new markets, including emerging ones such as China.

Based on “strong industry fundamentals” as well as the demonstrated success of its growth strategy, management upgraded fiscal 2013 full-year guidance for core NPAT and core EPS growth to 13 percent to 15 percent from a previous forecast of 0 percent to 12 percent growth. Ramsay Health Care is now a buy under USD30 (approximately AUD30.82) on the ASX using the symbol RHC and on the US OTC market using the symbol RMSUF.

Amalgamated Holdings Ltd (ASX: AHD, OTC: None), an Aggressive Holding in the AE Portfolio, continued a theme established by our four Conservative Holdings by announcing its own interim-dividend increase.

The movie theater and hotel operator boosted its payout in respect of fiscal 2013 first-half results by 7.1 percent to AUD0.15 per share from AUD0.14 a year ago.

Amalgamated announced a 4.7 percent increase in normalized profit–or NPAT profit before significant items–to AUD49.5 million. NPAT was AUD47.3 million and included AUD2.2 million (net of income tax) related to pre-opening costs for the flagship QT Sydney Hotel.

Results were driven by a strong second quarter for the cinema exhibition business, which was boosted by several notable releases, including “Skyfall,” the latest installment in the James Bond series, “The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn–Part 2” and “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey.”

Managing Director David Seargeant noted that trading conditions in the hotels and resorts segment “reflected a slight softening in demand,” as both corporate and leisure markets were affected by the continuing economic and political uncertainty. Earnings for the Thredbo resort, despite improved skiing conditions, were hurt by competition in lift-ticket pricing and increased costs, particularly for energy.

Management didn’t provide guidance for the remainder of the fiscal year.

Amalgamated Holdings is now a buy under USD7.50 (approximately AUD7.70 based on the prevailing exchange rate) on the ASX.

Oil Search Ltd (ASX: OSH, OTC: OISHF, ADR: OISHY) reported a 13 percent decline in 2012 NPAT to USD175.8 million from USD202.5 million in 2011 after the company more than doubled spending on exploration and suffered several shutdowns at its oil facilities.

Production for the year was impacted by the shutdown of the Kumul Marine Terminal in Papua New Guinea in late July after an oil sheen was spotted on the surface of the water. The company checked the facility, which has since reopened, but was unable to find the source of the oil leak.

Management said the Kumul shutdown caused deferral of 400,000 barrels of oil equivalent, though overall annual production of 6.38 million barrels of oil equivalent was within its guidance range.

Oil Search spent USD144 million on exploration activities, up from USD60.6 million in 2011.

Its key growth asset–a 29 percent stake in the PNG LNG project in Papua New Guinea, which is designed to produce 6.9 million metric tons of liquefied natural gas a year–is 75 percent complete and on track to produce first cargos for under-contract customers in China, Taiwan and Japan in 2014.

Project operator Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE: XOM) announced a 20 percent increase in costs for PNG LNG, to USD19 billion, in late November 2012 due primarily to foreign exchange fluctuations and torrential rain.

Managing Director Peter Botten noted, “As previously indicated, the capital cost increase is expected to be funded 70 percent by debt and 30 percent by equity. Discussions are currently underway to secure the USD1.5 billion of supplemental debt that is provided for under the existing project finance agreement, to fund the 70% debt component.”

Oil Search expects to produce between 6.2 million and 6.7 million barrels of oil equivalent during 2013. Management forecast capital expenditure of USD1.93 billion to USD2.1 billion, up from USD1.86 billion in 2012.

The company declared a final dividend of USD0.02 per share, in line with the final dividend for 2011. It will be paid April 9, 2013, to shareholders of record as of March 14, 2013. Shares are trading ex-dividend as of March 7.

Oil Search remains a buy under USD8 (approximately AUD8.25) using the symbol OSH on the ASX and the symbol OISHF on the US OTC market.

Oil Search also trades as an ADR on the US OTC market under the symbol OISHY. Oil Search’s ADR is worth 10 ordinary, ASX-listed shares and is a buy under USD80.

Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG, OTC: OGFGF, ADR: OGFGY) reported a worse-than-expected 34 percent drop in first-half NPAT to AUD524 million, as high energy prices for consumers cut into demand.

Management noted that major network upgrades and the introduction of a carbon tax are driving up Australian household electricity bills at a time when lingering global economic uncertainty is making consumers nervous about spending.

Origin also announced plans to cut up to 850 job cuts. Management reduced its full-year fiscal 2013 guidance and now expects underlying profit to decline 10 percent to 15 percent, worse than the 5 percent to 10 percent it announced at the end of 2012.

The new, lower guidance is the result of a price cap imposed by regulators in Queensland just before bad weather triggered a spike in wholesale electricity costs.

Origin’s retail business has been hurt by competition with AE Portfolio Conservative Holding AGL Energy Ltd (ASX: AGK, OTC: AGLNF, ADR: AGLNY). Origin’s customer base in New South Wales, for example, shrank by 4 percent.

Origin also announced a 7 percent cost overrun due to increased drilling costs for the Australia Pacific LNG venture in Queensland. Origin’s partners on AP LNG, which is no tracking to an overall budget of AUD24.7 billion, include ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) and China Petroleum & Chemical Corp, better known as Sinopec (Hong Kong: 386, NYSE: SNP). First cargos of LNG are on track to be delivered in mid-2015.

Management has expressed confidence that there will be no further cost overruns at the project.

Origin shares suffered a steep decline on the ASX in the aftermath of the disappointing earnings announcement but have since recovered most of the lost ground. Since hitting a recent closing low of AUD9.84 on Nov. 16, 2012, on the ASX, in fact, Origin is up 26.5 percent in price-only terms.

Management declared an interim dividend of AUD0.25 per share, in line with the interim dividend for fiscal 2012. It will be paid April 4, 2013, to shareholders of record as of March 4.

Origin Energy remains a buy for aggressive investors only up to USD15 on the ASX using the symbol ORG and on the US OTC market using the symbol OGFGF.

Origin also trades as an ADR on the US OTC market under the symbol OGFGY. Origin Energy’s ADR, which is worth one ordinary, ASX-listed share, is a buy under USD15.

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO, NYSE: RIO) booked a USD2.99 billion statutory net loss for the year ended Dec. 31, 2012, a 151 percent reversal from the USD5.826 billion net profit recorded for 2011. The loss is due to USD14.4 billion in writedowns on its aluminium and coal businesses. Management reported underlying earnings of USD9.3 billion, which reflect record iron ore production and shipments and a second-half recovery in copper volumes.

Lower average market prices in 2012 cut into underlying earnings by USD5.3 billion versus 2011.

Management confirmed a final dividend of USD0.9167 per share, up from a final dividend of USD0.842. The full-year dividend of USD1.67 per share is 15 percent higher than 2011.

New CEO Sam Walsh, who assumed his role after previous CEO Tom Albanese resigned in the wake of the February announcement of the massive writedowns on assets acquired during his watch, said the world’s second-largest iron ore miner would aggressively pursue asset sales after unveiling plans to cut costs by more than USD5 billion by the end of 2014.

Rio will reduce capital expenditures on approved and sustaining projects to about USD13 billion in 2013 and lower exploration and development spending by USD750 million compared to 2012.

Although the headline numbers appear grim, Rio actually beat analysts’ consensus forecast for underlying earnings by a healthy margin. And, noting that “China has achieved a soft landing,” Mr. Walsh said the company expects positive momentum in the fourth quarter of 2012 to be sustained into 2013. Rio expects Chinese GDP growth to once again exceed 8 percent in 2013.

Rio generated strong margins in copper, iron ore and minerals in 2012, but the aluminium and energy businesses suffered deterring market conditions as well as rising costs.

Management expects iron ore and copper volumes to grow as it accelerates its Pilbara iron ore expansion for completion during the third quarter of 2013. Iron ore comprises at least 80 percent of the overall earnings.

The Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold mine in Mongolia is being commissioned with first commercial production scheduled by the end of June 2013. But Mr. Walsh remains concerned about Rio’s investment agreement with the Mongolian government following a recent dispute.

Rio Tinto is a buy under USD75 (approximately on the ASX and the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) using the symbol RIO.

Here’s where to find discussion of earnings for AE Portfolio companies, most of which just reported fiscal 2013 first-half results. Some posted results for 2012, while others report on completely different schedules. We’ve included next reporting dates for those companies. Please consult the Portfolio tables at www.AussieEdge.com for current advice.

Conservative Holdings

Aggressive Holdings

Stock Talk

Add New Comments

You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk OR create an account