Strong Numbers

Nothing fancy, just growing dividends backed by the steadiest business in all of energy: fee-for-service pipelines and storage facilities. That’s the hallmark of each of our five MLP Profits Conservative Holdings.

In the two months since MLP Profits’ inception, we’ve already realized some solid gains from our quintet, and three of them have increased distributions as well.

The key for each is simply steady growth of what amount to virtually recession-proof assets, which in turn boosts sales, cash flow and distributions. That’s exactly what they showed in the second quarter of 2009, despite one of the rockiest economic and credit environments in decades.

In last week’s Viewpoint, we highlighted the robust earnings results for three of the five holdings: Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE: EPD), Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (NYSE: KMP) and Sunoco Logistics Partners (NYSE: SXL). Since then, Sunoco announced even more good news with the accretive acquisition of a refined products terminal from RKA Petroleum outside of Detroit.

The terminal has storage capacity of 350,000 barrels and is already connected to Sunoco’s pipeline system. As a result, it offers considerable synergies when the sale closes, probably in mid-October. That should be enough to ensure the extension of the limited partnership’s (LP) string of boosting dividends 17 consecutive quarters. Buy Sunoco Logistics Partners up to 60.

Note that Enterprise Products also looks on track to boost distributions again, despite the temporary outage of a natural gas pipeline in the Gulf of Mexico. The key issue for the LP is winning shareholder and regulatory approvals for its proposed merger with affiliated LP TEPPCO Partners (NYSE: TPP), which still appears to be on track. Enterprise Products Partners remains a buy up to 30 for those yet to take a position.

Finally, Kinder Morgan Energy Partners this week placed all of its 500-mile Midcontinent Express Pipeline—a joint venture with Energy Transfer Partners (NYSE: ETP)–into service for the first time.

Already fully subscribed, the pipeline will begin adding to cash flows immediately, opening the door to another distribution increase later in the year. Kinder Morgan Energy Partners is a solid buy up to 55.

Our other two Conservative Holdings reported earnings this week, and the news was no less positive.

Magellan Midstream Partners (NYSE: MMP) increased its forecast for distributable cash flow, before factoring in the impact of the Longhorn Pipeline acquisition, which may be dilutive initially.

The key was robust second quarter results, keyed by continued strong growth of 15 percent in operating profits from the core fee-based transportation and storage operations. That offset the impact of lower commodity prices on more economically sensitive units.

Distributable cash flow coverage hit 1.2 times the distribution. That’s a solid cushion as the LP attempts to complete the acquisition and absorption of its general partner Magellan Midstream Holdings (NYSE: MGG), and it holds the promise of a distribution increase when that deal is completed later this year.

Looking ahead, management expects the fee-based pipeline and storage business to continue growing, as it completes targeted acquisitions and asset expansion. Throughput at these assets has seen some impact from the recession, with diesel and jet fuel shipments at lower levels than in 2008.

That was offset, however, by gasoline shipments hitting levels in management’s words “not seen since 2006.” The LP also continues to benefit from higher tariff rates.

Over the past 12 months, results have been impacted by the steep fall in commodity prices from summer 2008 levels. Over the next 12 months, however, those operations will be a much smaller portion of overall profitability, even if commodity prices remain depressed. Meanwhile, they could provide windfall cash flows if oil and gas resume upward trajectory.

Either way, the impact on earnings should be positive. Magellan Midstream Partners remains a buy up to 40.

Spectra Energy Partners (NYSE: SEP) boosted its distribution again last week as it announced solid second quarter earnings.

The increase to a quarterly rate of 38 cents a share is the seventh straight since the LP was initially spun off from general partner Spectra Energy (NYSE: SE). And it’s well backed up by the LP’s expectation-beating numbers.

Cash available for distribution rose 61.1 percent to $33.5 million, up from $20.8 million a year earlier. Spectra benefited from the addition of earnings from the $295 million acquisition of the Ozark Pipeline system from the troubled Atlas group.

All other key asset groups also performed well, with tariff increases and asset expansions generally offsetting the impact of the weaker economy on throughput. The 50 percent investment in Hub Market Partners also paid off, as equity earnings rose 35 percent, lifting cash available for distribution from the project by 10.6 percent.

Debt remains at modest levels, thanks to Spectra’s skill at offering equity at good prices. And the LP has been able to roll over short-term credit and refinance at premiums to Treasuries in the 300 basis point area. The total package is a low-risk LP featuring a solid distribution investors can count on to rise steadily going forward.

Backed by powerful parent Spectra Energy, Spectra Energy Partners is a compelling buy for even the most risk averse investors up to 25.

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