The Right Numbers

We hear you. The last couple weeks have been hair-raising for the markets in general. And several very strong master limited partnerships (MLP) have been even more volatile than the market overall, raising fears that something else must be going wrong.

Now that we’re a few days from the craziness of May 6, however, at least a few things are clear. One is we’re a long way from the dangerous environment that preceded the crash of late 2008/early 2009.

When Lehman Brothers fell in September 2008, all too many investors–from individuals to mega-institutions–were caught betting the wrong way, and with leverage. I challenge anyone to suggest more than a tiny fraction of investors are so exposed today. In fact, the opposite is more likely, i.e. investors own too many bonds and so-called hedges and are using stop-losses far too aggressively in hopes of avoiding another 2008.

As we’ve pointed out, the over-use of stops is almost certainly a major reason why rock-solid MLPs have been so volatile. Stops can be set at any price. But they’re no more than orders to sell if that price is breached, so there’s no guarantee it’s what you’ll get. And if a lot of stops are placed at the same price, breaching that level will bring many sell orders to the market at once, and the price will crash.

We saw that kind of action over and over again on May 6, and every time the MLP in question has rebounded almost fully. The only real losers were those who thought they were playing it safe with stops, and instead were sold out at horrible prices. These were sometimes 20 to 30 percent below where those same MLPs closed later that day. Meanwhile, nothing had changed with the MLPs’ businesses. Dividends were safe as ever, with many just increased in the wake of posting very strong first quarter earnings.

We sincerely hope this giant whipsaw didn’t happen to any MLP Profits readers. But once again, we admonish everyone to stay away from stops when it comes to MLPs. They never make sense when it comes to MLPs backed by strong businesses.

Take the example of Enterprise Products Partners LP (NYSE: EPD). The MLP’s units were extremely volatile on the downside on May 6, despite announcing a deal with producer Anadarko Petroleum Corp (NYSE: APC) that’s accretive to earnings and dividends.

Investors appeared to fear a repeat of late 2008, when Enterprise units hit a low in the upper teens, a drop of roughly 50 percent from pre-crash levels. What they forgot was that simply holding onto the units throughout the downturn would have made investors whole and then some. Meanwhile, the distribution has been increased every quarter for the past six years.

Selling at the top and buying back at the bottom would have yielded an even better result. But even then, investors would have lost a lot of income. Long-time holders would have been liable for substantial taxes.

Finally, given the emotion of the time, it’s highly unlikely anyone’s timing would have been so perfect. And those using stop losses were almost surely sold out at suboptimal prices.

We’re not advocating a blind buy-and-hold policy. MLP Profits is only now approaching its one-year anniversary, but we’ve already taken profits on holdings when prices outran prospects. And while thankfully nothing has come unglued fundamentally, we’ve been quite aggressive with sell recommendations elsewhere in the How They Rate universe.

We’ll throw a dog out of the tent when the need arises. But despite the selloff of the past week, our picks are anything but dogs. Rather, businesses are healthy, pieces are being put in place for future growth, and distributions are rising.

Best of all, this selloff has left many of our favorites trading well below our buy targets. This not only is not the time to sell, or, worse, place ill-advised stop-losses. It’s actually a great time to buy if you haven’t already–a stark contrast to just a couple months ago when many investors were having trouble buying below our targets.

We’ve been reviewing first-quarter earnings of our Conservative, Growth and Aggressive Holdings over the past several weeks. Here are the remainder, with the exception of Teekay LNG Partners LP (NYSE: TGP), which we’ll update next week. Note that Kayne Anderson Energy Total Return Fund (NYSE: KYE) is a closed-end mutual fund and therefore has no earnings report.

Energy Transfer Partners LP (NYSE: ETP) posted distributable cash flow (DCF) that was lower than year-earlier levels, mainly due to timing issues for when income was declared.

DCF coverage of the distribution was solid at 1.6-to-1 for the recent quarter, traditionally a strong one as propane operations (23 percent of annual income) deliver the majority of their cash flow in the winter heating season. That contribution will drop in the summer months as heating needs wane.

Management has also executed in two other areas that will help cash flow the rest of the year. First is the completion of major infrastructure projects, along with substantial progress on others. The other is the dramatic reduction in commodity price risk. All natural gas and other energy volumes in 2010 have now been hedged, as have 85 percent of anticipated 2011 volumes.

During the MLP’s first-quarter conference call CFO Martin Salinas stated that “resuming distribution rate growth to our unitholders is on our horizon as we move closer to completing our large interstate pipeline projects and we begin to receive the incremental distributable contract flow from the fixed fee contracts supporting these pipelines.” That’s a pretty clear statement we’re going to see a higher payout, possibly later this year, which should drive the MLP’s price higher still. Buy Energy Transfer Partners LP up to our target of 48 if you haven’t already.

EV Energy Partners LP (NSDQ: EVEP) came in with adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) that was 3 percent higher than last year but down 7 percent sequentially from the fourth quarter. DCF followed a similar pattern, rising 19 percent year over year but dropping 5 percent sequentially.

Production fell 3 percent year over year and 6 percent sequentially. Management also reduced 2010 cash flow and production guidance, largely on weaker gas prices (68 percent of output) and cut its full-year capital spending projection by 25 percent. The results are steady, given the drop in natural gas prices in the first quarter.

Reading beneath the headline numbers, however, the news is considerably better. First, distribution coverage was solid again at 1.15-to-1. Second, the partnership set the stage for stronger production going forward with the acquisition of assets in Appalachia, a $138 million transaction that was mostly equity financed and therefore minimized use of debt. That’s a very good sign for this MLP’s prospects of boosting distributions going forward, as it continues to do on a quarterly basis.

Profits over the long haul will depend on a recovery in gas prices. But while we’re waiting, EV Energy Partners LP is a solid bet for yield and a buy up to 34.

Genesis Energy LP (NYSE: GEL) posted strong results at its pipeline transport, refinery services and supply and logistics operations. That offset another fairly weak quarter at its industrial gases segment, which continue to be crimped by the weak economy.

Misperceived risk about the company’s focus on the Gulf of Mexico could have led to some additional selling pressure in the units last week. But the company’s drive to diversify and expand its geographic footprint with heavy refined products transportation, blending and storage has reduced the risk of relying on a single region, while expanding the opportunities for growth.

The 2.1 percent boost in the distribution this quarter continues the MLP’s string of increases and is the final leg of an 8.9 percent jump over the past 12 months. Meanwhile, solid DCF coverage of 1.24-to-1 and reliance on fee-generating assets–rather than commodity-sensitive businesses–adds a further layer of stability and promise of dividend growth.

The unit price has been volatile of late, due in part to worries about what a major investor’s plans for its stake. In our view, that’s created a solid buying opportunity to buy steady cash cow assets on the cheap. Buy Genesis Energy LP up to 21.

Inergy LP (NYSE: NRGY) boosted its distribution for the 34th consecutive quarter this month, for a year-over-year increase of 6.1 percent.

The company’s fiscal second quarter–key because of the MLP’s reliance on its propane distribution division–was basically in line with management guidance. Propane revenue tapers off in the summer months. But management continues to have success building its base of midstream energy assets, which saw a 33 percent boost in profits form year earlier levels. Propane gallons sold were up 18 percent over the past 12 months, in part due to weather but also because of management’s success making accretive acquisitions of smaller distributors.

Profit on the retail business was up 16.8 percent, offsetting slightly weaker wholesale business due to the weaker economy. Inergy plans to split its units by 3-to-1 on May 24, a deal that will not trigger any tax consequences for investors but will adjust everyone’s costs basis two-thirds lower.

DCF coverage of the distribution was a strong 2.5-to-1 and 1-to-1 for the last 12 months, a ratio that should improve going forward due to the new midstream assets. Under pressure during the selloff but now mostly recovered, Inergy LP is a solid buy up to 39.

Legacy Reserves LP (NSDQ: LGCY) covered its distribution by a 1.06-to-1 margin with DCF in the first quarter of 2010. The real news from the LP’s report, however, was the 138 percent increase in capital spending from last year’s depressed levels. That’s a clear indication it expects to deliver more output gains (up 6.9 percent sequentially from the fourth quarter), driven in large part by acquisitions.

Sales of oil and gas liquids surged 12 percent in the quarter and now account for a full 85 percent of the product stream. That’s a huge plus going forward, with liquids prices driven by overseas demand while gas remains depressed in North America. And Legacy has limited its risk to gas by hedging 80 percent of output in the first quarter and 73 percent of what it expects to produce the rest of the year.

DCF was reduced by 12.7 percent in the first quarter by the equity issue used to acquire new production. That’s an investment that will pay off in higher DCF going forward, however, even if gas prices stay flat. Buy Legacy Reserves LP up to 25.

Regency Energy Partners LP’s (NSDQ: RGNC) biggest news this week was not earnings, which came in solidly with 1.06-to-1 DCF coverage of the payout. Rather, it was the action of Energy Transfer Equity (NYSE: ETE)–the general partner of Energy Transfer Partners–to buy Regency’s general partner interest. That could conceivably marry these two companies’ emerging empires in key infrastructure serving prolific shale gas growth areas.

As part of the deal, Regency is also buying a 49.9 percent interest in the Midcontinent Express Pipeline, further boosting its midstream assets. This year’s startup of the Haynesville Expansion Project is already adding to profitability, doubling the margins from the transportation business. That was complimented by an 8 percent increase in the LP’s gathering and processing margins, though contract compression margins were flat.

Regency currently plans $180 million in organic capital spending–i.e. excluding potential acquisitions–and could see more with what’s likely to be a more aggressive general partner. Buy Regency Energy Partners LP up to 22.

Targa Resources Partners LP (NSDQ: NGLS) posted flat cash flow in its first quarter, as measured by adjusted EBITDA. DCF coverage of the distribution was again solid at 1.1-to-1, largely on the growing strength of the natural gas liquids business, which is what attracted us to Targa.

Overall profits were slightly crimped by plant turnarounds at the Logistics Assets operation. But these, too, should leaven over the rest of 2010, according to CEO Rene Joyce. Overall DCF was up 22 percent in the quarter, largely on the strength of the asset additions. And the drop-down of more assets in West Texas from parent Targa Resources promises fatter cash flows ahead for the rest of the year.

Targa units have had some ups and downs since we added the LP to the Growth Holdings, but through no fault of its own. Now selling at a very reasonable price and on track for big time gains in NGLs, Targa Resources Partners LP is a strong buy up to 28.

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