Pay on the Go

As companies scramble for advantage in the mobile payments market, near-field communication (NFC) could finally be on the verge of going mainstream. NFC enables the wireless sharing of data between two electronic devices, but, unlike Bluetooth, it only works when devices are at a distance of 1.5 inches or less. NFC’s extremely short range makes it ideal for the secure exchange of data, particularly mobile payments. Indeed, Juniper Research forecasts that NFC applications will facilitate $74 billion in transactions by 2015.

AT&T (N YSE: T), Verizon (N YSE: VZ) and T-Mobile have already invested $100 million in a joint venture to create the Isis Mobile Wallet, which allows users to load their existing credit cards and customer loyalty cards into a smartphone-based app for a contactless swipe at points of payment. The consortium has secured the support of the four major payment networks, and its app is slated to launch this summer. Google (NSDQ: GOOG) debuted its Google Wallet app late last year. And Apple (NSDQ: A APL) is rumored to finally include NFC capability on its forthcoming iPhone 5, which could be a key development in spurring consumer interest in this technology.

Although NFC clearly has momentum, there is still debate over what aspect of the mobile payment experience will ultimately drive consumers and retailers toward widespread adoption of this new transaction method. From a consumer perspective, NFC-driven transactions aren’t necessarily faster than simply swiping a credit card. And merchants are concerned about the costs and integration involved in upgrading to point-of-purchase hardware that can accommodate this new contactless technology as well as existing forms of payment.

However, NFC mobile payment systems are less about increasing the efficiency of the payment process, and more about spurring incremental sales by fostering customer loyalty via coupons and promotions. Most payment apps will provide new methods for retailers to narrowly target their marketing to consumers. NFC has already achieved moderate market penetration in Japan and South Korea, which suggests that both consumers and retailers there found value in the technology.

In a crowded market, it’s more prudent to identify the companies whose products will be necessary regardless of which mobile payment system prevails.

Although NXP Semiconductors (NSDQ: NXPI) is well known as the first mover in the NFC chip market, smartphone makers’ emphasis on ever-smaller devices means that fabless semiconductor developer Broadcom Corp (NSDQ: BRCM) is more likely to emerge as a dominant player once NFC goes mainstream. Unlike NXP, whose chips solely have application to NFC, Broadcom specializes in creating combo connectivity chips, which bundle disparate radio technologies, such as Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, Cellular and GPS, onto one chip. Although Broadcom’s latest NFC chip is still a standalone, it’s 40 percent smaller than competitors’ chips and reduces power consumption by 90 percent.

While Broadcom’s earnings declined 14.3 percent from the year-ago period due to lower gross margins and increased investment in research and development, its earnings have grown 19.6 percent annually over the trailing five years. Broadcom has a substantial $4.5 billion in cash on its balance sheet and just $1.2 billion in long-term debt.

VeriFone Systems (N YSE: PAY) has a leading market share in US point-of-sale terminals and is pursuing a systems-agnostic approach by creating terminals that can accommodate all NFC payment methods as well as traditional credit cards. The average terminal replacement cycle is five years, but if retailers feel compelled to embrace NFC, then that could potentially shorten this cycle and boost VeriFone’s revenue over the next couple of years.

Similar to software makers, VeriFone is reorienting its business model to “payment as a service” by offering retailers the ability to update software at their existing terminals and improve a terminal’s ability to provide targeted marketing to consumers via coupons and advertising. Though the company suffered some unprofitable years during the Great Recession, it has since rebounded, with 2011 earnings jumping 184.8 percent from the prior year.

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