With the major US stock indexes posting some of their strongest first-quarter gains in more than a decade, stocks have been coming up aces lately. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more than 8 percent in the first quarter, the S&P 500 pushed 12 percent higher, and the Nasdaq Composite Index jumped 19 percent.

But the good times are unlikely to keep rolling. Over the past two years, the market’s pattern has been to move significantly higher at the outset of the year, only to subsequently weaken into a mid-year correction. While Europe was the primary catalyst for last year’s pullback, this year a correction could originate from either foreign or domestic sources.

For one thing, the Federal Reserve appears to be stepping back from its role as the market’s enabler. The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting in March revealed that the Fed feels a bit more sanguine about the state of the economy and has even begun to develop some concerns about inflation. The Fed’s somewhat optimistic outlook disappointed investors who were hoping for a third round of quantitative easing. While the minutes don’t reflect a Fed totally opposed to pursuing more stimulative measures should the need arise, they do show the Fed feels more restrained.

Energy prices also remain elevated, with crude oil still trading above $100 per barrel in the US and Brent crude—the European oil benchmark— trading at around $120 per barrel. As a result, the national average price for gasoline as of this writing is $3.94 per gallon. Much of the spike can be attributed to worries over a new conflict in the Middle East with Iran at its nexus. While there doesn’t seem to be imminent danger of these tensions boiling over, tougher European sanctions take effect in July, creating a potential flashpoint at the height of the summer driving season. There’s nothing like gasoline at $4 per gallon to sap consumer confidence. Since we have the Fed to thank for much of the market’s gains over the past three years, a dip could be in the offing if the Fed withholds further stimulus. Add high gasoline prices to the mix and the market has a recipe for a correction.