Beat the Dinner Rush

Ever since the Great Recession, dining out has become an infrequent luxury for many Americans. Between household deleveraging and a dismal labor market, many consumers haven’t had the disposable income necessary to regularly patronize their neighborhood restaurants. 

But consumer confidence has rebounded to its highest level in almost year, with the latest Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment rising to 75 in January from its previous reading of 69.9 in December. By comparison, the index had an average reading of 89 in the five-year period that preceded the financial crisis.

Beyond that, Americans’ incomes received a modest 0.5 percent bump in December. While consumer spending grew just 2.2 percent last year, a rising economic tide is likely to lift spending in 2012. 

That will be welcome news for America’s restaurant industry, which has struggled to lure diners back after the recession. But rather than attempting to divine which stocks will outperform in that highly fragmented industry, the best way to play a restaurant recovery is by betting on the company that supplies many of America’s eateries.

Sysco Corp (NYSE: SYY) is a key supplier to the American restaurant industry, controlling a 17 percent share of a market valued at roughly $220 billion. By contrast, its closest competitor, privately held US Foodservice, controls just 8 percent of the market. 

Sysco built its market dominance by offering a wide-ranging product line along with a nation-wide reputation for fast, superior service.

Over the past five years, Sysco produced 5 percent annual revenue growth, while earnings have increased 7.6 percent annually. In its fiscal 2012 first quarter, revenue rose 8.6 percent to $10.6 billion from the year-ago period, while earnings per share jumped 7.8 percent. Food-cost inflation drove a substantial percentage of that revenue 35 growth, as Sysco was able to pass along the bulk of its input costs to customers. Meanwhile, case volume, a measure of product delivered to customers, grew by almost 2 percent on higher purchase volume. 

Sysco’s commitment to wringing maximum efficiency out of its operations has been a major 30 driver of its impressive earnings growth. In a feat reminiscent of UPS’s (NYSE: UPS) famous near elimination of left turns, Sysco has undertaken a multi-year project to route its deliveries more efficiently and shorten supply chains by constructing additional distribution centers. The project will likely cost Sysco several hundred million dollars by its completion, but the company will be well compensated when its investment results in improved inventory control and reduced delivery costs. That, in turn, should translate into higher margins and greater customer loyalty in the future.

Beyond its attractive fundamentals, Sysco pays a solid quarterly dividend, which has increased annually since 1977, with a five-year annualized growth rate of 10.8 percent. Sysco’s current payout ratio of 50.1 percent ensures that there’s plenty of room for that payout to grow in the future. In fact, the analyst consensus is for the company’s revenue to grow by around 8 percent annually over the next five years, while earnings are forecast to grow by around 6 percent annually.

Sysco does face significant challenges, including its ability to pass food-cost inflation along to its customers, but it will certainly get a boost from an improving economic environment. And with Sysco’s extraordinarily lean operations, the majority of any rise in top-line revenue will flow to its bottom line, resulting in higher dividends for its shareholders.

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