Improving Earnings Means More Spending

The most recent Consumer Confidence Index numbers released by the Conference Board jumped to 57.9 from 52.3, and the improvement is even more pronounced in consumers’ outlook for the next six to 12 months—the long-term index jumped 7 points to 77.4.

These expectations have already translated to consumer behavior; the US Commerce Dept’s March data showed that consumer spending rose 0.6 percent. There are also indications that the painful household deleveraging process may be coming to an end. Spending outpaced income growth by 0.3 percent in the month—a clearly bullish sign in an economy where the consumer accounts for more than 70 percent of activity.

The spending data, however, begs a worrisome question: Is John Q. Public once again financing his lifestyle by tapping credit? That’s a valid concern, as many of the new jobs created in March were related to the 2010 Census or temporary in nature.

But the bulk of the temporary positions were in industries such as health care and manufacturing; there’s a strong likelihood they could become permanent placements.

And the odds of a new consumer credit bubble forming are extremely low; it’s still tough to secure new mortgage financing without good credit, and home equity loans are largely a thing of the past. Any credit lines consumers are tapping were likely secured prior to the crisis.

The US economy still faces headwinds, but the economy has turned a corner; focus on buying quality businesses at good prices. ?

 

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