The downtrend in savings has reversed; the US savings rate jumped to 5.7 percent in April, close to the 50- year average of 6.8 percent. But the American consumer isn’t dead. The rate of decline in consumer expenditures has slowed markedly since late 2008; in April inflation-adjusted expenditures shrank just 0.1 percent month-over-month compared to 0.5 to 0.7 percent in late 2008.

Bottom line: Consumer spending is stabilizing at a lower level and will likely begin to grow again later this year. In the future, expect consumer expenditures to grow more in line with personal income.

Some retailers won’t fare well in this more subdued environment. Once-popular stores such as Circuit City, Linens ‘n Things and Mervyn’s have already gone bust, felled by too much debt and over-expansion.

But retailers that sell bargain merchandise continue to benefit handsomely from frugal consumers. Meanwhile, those with strong brand names and conservative balance sheets have the wherewithal to survive the current downturn and position for growth when spending ticks higher late this year.

Retail Winners

Fashion has always been a fickle business, and a teen fashionista’s tastes can be the toughest to gauge.

Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO) has successfully navigated those changing tastes for more than 20 years, offering a wide line of basic fashions that appeal to 14- to 17-year olds and their wallets.

Aeropostale is able to under-price most of its competition despite handling its own design. And by employing its own designers it’s able to recognize and anticipate changing fashions, bring new designs to market more quickly, and control costs through using less expensive materials.

That’s left the company with no debt despite its rapid expansion. Last year Aeropostale opened 72 new stores in the US and 17 in Canada. In the first quarter of 2009 it opened its first international location, in Dubai, and plans to open 20 more stores abroad in coming years. And it’s launching P.S. from Aeropostale, a line of stores geared toward 7- to-12-year olds, in the New York metropolitan area.

During the next year the company is likely to scale back launches of its signature stores in favor of developing its new P.S. brand. That’s not likely to impede growth–its website sales, up 85 percent in 2008, continue to grow.

Keeping track of fickle teen tastes is a challenge, but houseware retailers have struggled mightily since the real estate boom went bust. Linens ‘n Things entered bankruptcy in May 2008, bad news for shareholders but an attractive void for competitors.

Bed, Bath & Beyond (NSDQ: BBBY) has fared much better. With no debt and more than $600 million in cash, the company not only weathered a 2.4 percent decline in same store sales last year, it opened 67 new locations, primarily in markets vacated by troubled competitors.

Another major factor in the company’s success is its product mix; its outlets offer low-cost, low-margin products such as small kitchen appliances as well as higher-cost, higher margin items such as furniture.

In 2009 the company expects to slow expansion to just 50 new stores in the US and Canada. Instead, it will focus on streamlining costs and inventories and consolidating some underperforming locations.

Selling, administrative and general (SG&A) costs–a major profit drain in the retail business–have historically run in the high 20 percent range; this figure rose to 30.5 percent of net sales last year as consumers used coupons and other discounts. Bringing SG&A expenses down by just 1 percent could add as much as $70 million to top-line profits.

The rate of decline in home prices is slowing as the pace of single- home sales improves, which bodes well for future spending. And Bed, Bath & Beyond will be one of the few to emerge from the economic crisis relatively unscathed.

While sales growth will likely continue to moderate over the coming months, Bed, Bath & Beyond could be an excellent play on recovery in both retail spending and the real estate market.

Though a net positive for consumers, falling gasoline prices are a major headwind for BJ’s Wholesale Club (NYSE: BJ). When gas prices are running high, many consumers drive to BJ’s just to take advantage of its discounted prices.

But traffic drops off when fuel prices are low; this year’s sales numbers are skewed in the wake of last year’s record high prices.

The company reported in May that net same-store sales fell 4.7 percent as gasoline sales declined 10.8 percent, but merchandise sales rose by 4 percent.

Fuel prices won’t remain this low for much longer, particularly as summer driving season gets underway. And value-conscious consumers continue to flock to the club; food sales have risen by an average 3 percent per month since the recession began.

The company continues to post attractive sales growth; net sales rose 11.5 percent last year to $9.8 billion. And, unlike many of its competitors, BJ’s hasn’t totally saturated its market with just 182 clubs in 15 states, leaving it plenty of room to grow.

The company is also aggressively cutting SG&A expenses this year, expecting them to come in between 5 and 9 percent.

Benjamin Shepherd is editor of Louis Rukeyser’s Wall Street and Elliott Gue is editor of Personal Finance.