The Great Power Shift

For years economists have predicted that one day global economic power would reside in developing and emerging markets—a trend that the financial crisis and global recession have hastened.

According to research released by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), in 2000 its member states held a 60 percent share of the global economy in terms of purchasing power. Today, developed nations control just a little more than half. By 2030 developing nations will hold a 57 percent share of the global economy.

The rapid development of China and India has played a major role in this shift, and their voracious appetites for resources continue to funnel gobs of cash to commodity-rich nations such as Brazil and Russia. Emerging economies are also becoming net creditors rather than net debtors.

This shifting power dynamic inspires dread in many developed nations and has spawned innumerable research reports and policy recommendations that encourage protectionist trade policies. But should this shift elicit trepidation?

Although the economic might of developing countries poses challenges to nations struggling with high unemployment, their governments held two-thirds of the world’s foreign currency reserves by the end of 2009. These reserves enabled them to soften the blow of the global recession through trade and investment.

Most emerging and developing economies are expected to expand over the next few years, albeit it at a rate that’s below pre-crisis levels. In terms of gross domestic product, emerging and developing economies should account for most of global growth this year and next, with the developed world contributing only 1 percent of growth in 2012 and beyond.

If this forecast comes to fruition, governments that historically have relied on foreign aid will find themselves free to chart their own economic destiny. Reduced dependence on aid dollars will afford developing countries much more latitude to pursue their own goals and agendas.

Investors should embrace this trend.

According to the OECD, at least 84 developing countries grew their per-capita income at more than twice the average rate in the developed world. These developing countries include more than 20 nations in sub-Saharan Africa, one of the poorest regions in the world. Meanwhile, Latin America showed its strongest income growth since 1960s.

Higher standards of living translates into a growing consumer class in areas of the world once dependent on food aid and spells huge long-term opportunity for both US-based multinational corporations and foreign enterprises.

Emerging and developing markets will generate huge long-term profits for both businesses and investors and should be seen as an opportunity rather than a roadblock. Many US companies have already reached this realization.

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