Weekly Wrap 9/26/11-9/30/11: Asian Markets Slump

A gauge of China’s manufacturing activity held steady in September, indicating that a sharp slowdown in China’s economic growth is unlikely. The final HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was unchanged at 49.9 in September compared with 49.9 in August. Readings above 50 indicate expansion in manufacturing activity, while readings below 50 indicate contraction. The final reading was higher than the preliminary PMI of 49.4 announced on Sept. 22. Analysts said that the PMI reading suggested that China’s economy will not experience a hard landing.

 

China’s current account surplus–the broadest measure of the country’s trade balance–came in at USD87.8 billion in the first half of the year, down from a previous estimate of USD98.4 billion. The current account surplus accounted for 2.8 percent of gross domestic product in the first half, indicating that China’s dependence on exports for economic growth is beginning to lessen.

 

Hong Kong shares recorded their worst quarter in 10 years as funds sold off mainland banks and property stocks over fears of a slowing Chinese economy. The benchmark Hang Seng index closed 2.3 percent down on Friday at 17,592.4. Friday’s loss capped off a 21.4 percent third-quarter decline for the benchmark. The index lost more than 14 percent in September alone. Friday’s losses for the index may have been triggered by a Credit Suisse report that warned of a correction in the property markets that would trigger problems at the nation’s banks. Credit Suisse estimated that informal lending in the mainland stands at about RMB4 trillion (USD625.2 billion) and could be a “time bomb” for the Chinese economy. The report was released on Wednesday, but Friday was the first opportunity for Hong Kong markets to react; Hong Kong markets were closed on Thursday due to a typhoon.

 

The Shanghai Composite Index closed on Friday at 2,359.2, to end the quarter with a 15 percent loss. Investors sold off consumer- and export-related stocks in response to signs of a slowing global economy.

 

Indian stocks posted their biggest quarterly loss in years in response to rising interest rates and concerns of a global recession. The benchmark BSE index closed the quarter down 12.8 percent. It was the biggest loss for the index since the fourth quarter of 2008, when the benchmark lost 25 percent in the wake of the Lehman Brothers collapse.

 

Moody’s Investors Service said it is unlikely to change its rating outlook for India despite a surprising increase in the country’s borrowing target for the current fiscal year. Moody’s currently has a Baa3 foreign currency rating and a “stable” outlook on India’s debt. India on Thursday announced that it had raised its borrowing target for the fiscal year ending March by USD10.8 billion. Analyst have questioned how the country will meet its fiscal-deficit aim of 4.6 percent of gross domestic product with this new borrowing.

 

South Korea’s industrial production slowed in August as a slowing global economy continues to pressure Asia’s export-oriented economies. Industrial output decreased 1.9 percent month over month in August. However, production was up 4.8 percent on a year-over-year basis. South Korean manufacturer confidence remained at a 21-month low and consumer confidence remained at its lowest level since March. The country’s current-account surplus in August narrowed to USD401.3 million, compared with USD3.77 billion in July.

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