Weekly Wrap 9/12/11-9/16/11: WTO Sees Slowing Global Trade

The World Trade Organization (WTO) said that global trade is slowing faster than expected due to the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and an economic slowdown. The WTO’s head, Pascal Lamy, said that the organization’s forecast for global trade growth would be revised downward, without providing details. The WTO had predicted a 6.5 percent increase in global trade this year, following a 14.5 percent increase in 2010. By comparison, global trade declined by 12 percent in 2009 amid the height of the financial crisis.

Speaking to the European American Press Club in Paris, Lamy also said that Russia might officially join the WTO at the organization’s December ministerial meeting. Russia, which is the largest economy still outside the WTO, initiated a bid to join the organization 18 years ago. Russian officials have recently voiced hopes that the country could join the WTO this year. However, Russia’s bid is now held up by tax breaks that the Russian government has granted to automakers to set up assembly operations–incentives that the EU says violates WTO rules. Russia’s accession to the WTO also faces resistance from Georgia, which has the right to veto Russia’s bid. Russia and Georgia fought a brief war in 2008. Russian officials say that joining the WTO would speed up economic reforms and also help the country win a higher credit rating from ratings agencies.

 

Foreign direct investment (FDI) in China rose 17.7 percent to USD77.6 billion in the January to August period. The country’s FDI growth slowed slightly from 18.1 percent recorded in the same period in 2010. In August, the country drew USD8.4 billion in FDI, a year-over-year increase of 11.1 percent. However, analysts said that China’s strong economic growth still gives the country an economic advantage. Meanwhile continued economic development in China’s interior provinces and second- and third-tier cities continues to attract investment from foreign corporations. Although China’s FDI declined sharply amid the 2008 credit crunch, analysts say that corporations have more cash on the books now for investment in the country.

 

India’s central bank hiked interest rates for the 12th time since March 2010 in a bid to tamp down rising inflation. The Reserve Bank of India boosted the repurchase rate to 8.25 percent from 8 percent, a move that was widely expected by analysts. The interest rate hike indicates that India’s central bank is more concerned with controlling inflation even amid a slowing global economy. India’s inflation came in at about 9.75 percent in August, the highest reading in 13 months. Meanwhile, India’s economy expanded by 7.7 percent in the second quarter, the lowest level of economic growth the country has recorded in 18 months.

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