Weekly Wrap 8/22/11-8/26/11: China’s Banks Post Robust Profits

China’s five largest banks–Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), China Construction Bank, Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China and Bank of Communications–posted record first-half profits as robust economic growth fueled the sector. ICBC’s net profit rose 29 percent to a record USD17 billion; the combined profits of China’s five largest banks came in at USD57 billion, driven by fee-generating businesses such as credit cards and wealth management products. China’s banking sector has come under scrutiny for high levels of exposure to local-government debt used for infrastructure projects. Loans to local governments are estimated to be as much as RMB14.38 trillion (USD2.25 trillion), equivalent to one-third of all outstanding loans in the country as of the end of 2010.  China’s policymakers have also sought to tamp down rising inflation and runaway loan growth by raising interest rates and introducing more stringent capital requirements. Consequently, shares of China’s “big four” lenders have declined by an average of 18 percent this year, compared to a 28 percent average decline for the five largest US banks. Many analysts believe that China’s robust economic growth–expected to come in at about 9 percent this year–will stave off a crisis in the Chinese banking sector.

 

India’s central bank wrote in its annual report that inflation remained high–despite moderating prices for commodities and oil–and could hurt the country’s economic growth. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) warned against viewing high inflation as the “new normal” as this could push up long-term inflationary expectations. The RBI has raised interest rates 11 times since March 2010 but inflation remains stubbornly high. The country’s headline inflation stood at 9.22 percent in July. As of the week of Aug. 13, the food price index rose 9.8 percent and the fuel price index rose 13.13 percent. Indian government officials have said that inflation may ease in the October to December period, although the headline inflation figure would likely hover at 9 to 10 percent until December. RBI officials said that slowing growth in the developed world could reduce India’s projections for economic growth, but that inflation was a greater short-term concern.

 

Shipments of coffee from Vietnam in August may have fallen 49 percent to 40,000 metric tons, compared to 78,000 tons the previous year and 53,000 tons in July. The preliminary figures from the General Statistics Office attributed the decline to thinned stocks after strong sales earlier in the year. High prices for coffee caused Vietnamese farmers to sell 90 percent of the latest crop by May. Vietnam is the second-largest coffee exporter after Brazil, and the world’s largest exporter of robusta beans used to make instant coffee drinks. Rice shipments for August may also come in at 600,000 tons, compared to 615,000 tons the previous year and 652,000 tons in July. Rice exports in the first eight months of the year may have risen 6.5 percent year over year to 5.31 million tons. Vietnam is the second-largest exporter of rice. Rubber shipments in August may have declined by 18 percent year over year to 85,000 tons. Exports in the first eight months of the year may have risen 5.6 percent year over year to 454,000 tons.

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