The Australian Securities Exchange/Standard & Poor’s 200 gapped lower at the open Tuesday morning in Sydney and sold off in the early moments of trading, reacting as did the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq to the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction’s failure to reach a deal on spending and revenue changes that would put the US on course toward fiscal balance.

That’s the standard interpretation. Another view, part of the interpretation here of conditions in global markets, is that this entirely foreseeable failure is simply a convenient excuse for already skittish investors to sell. The big picture includes a long-term and destabilizing shift in the global economic growth profile as well as, now, the attempt to recover from a Great Financial Crisis that’s left much of the developed world with nothing left to do, apparently, but deleverage.

Emerging Asia is upsetting things such as the global supply-demand equation for things such as oil in ways that will have negative consequences for the US in particular, as easy access to cheap fuel has been one of the main variables enabling the post-World War II Pax Americana. And although recent data suggest conditions in the US are indeed much better than advertised, growth is still insufficient to absorb the unemployed, let alone new entrants to the job market. Until this is so, household formation–and home sales–will remain on the down-low.

All together this means a great deal of volatility for markets, as threats real and imagined reverberate across Europe, bounce across the pond, and sometimes get aggravated by unrelated but equally consequential events such as natural disasters.

The Super Committee sideshow includes automatic budget cuts built into the law that created it, and in any case none of those take effect until 2013, or after the 2012 elections. There are policy priorities that might have been included in a deficit reduction “Super Bill” that will either fall victim to continuing partisan warfare or will receive specific attention before expiring, including temporary payroll tax reductions and unemployment benefits extensions as well as the so-called Bush tax cuts.

But by late Monday evening–Tuesday morning Down Under–S&P and Moody’s had re-affirmed their respective ratings on US credit, Australian indexes pointed up and American futures turned green. It’s important to note, too, that an auction of two-year US Treasury notes that went off as rumors of Super Committee failure began to earn confirmation, drew a yield of 0.28 percent on a bid-to-cover ratio of 4.07, up from an average of 3.32 for the previous 10 sales. The yield on the key 10-year US Treasury note is now 1.96 percent. Together these are indications the full faith and credit of the US government is still respected.

Meanwhile, yields on Spain’s bonds crept up toward Italy levels, suggesting that the real problem remains on the Continent.

A Congress that’s challenging even those where members were literally beaten on the floor for sheer absurdity has managed to obscure the fact that data for what remains the most important economy in the world are firming. It’s not enough to call an end to the jaggedness, but we are in a period of upside surprises. 

US initial claims for unemployment fell to their lowest level since April during the week ended Nov. 12 to a seasonally adjusted 388,000. The less volatile four-week average dropped to 396,750, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 400,750. Initial claims have fallen in four of the past five weeks, though they’re still too high to hope for a meaningful decline in the unemployment rate, currently 9 percent, anytime soon.

One of the knock-on effects of low interest rates is that businesses in North America have been able to refinance existing debt and/or secure new sources of capital on the cheap. And these businesses will have cash to deploy once there’s firm evidence of enough demand to support new capacity and maybe make a dent in that unemployment rate.

The Bank of Canada’s (BoC) current forecast is for US GDP growth of 1.25 percent through mid-2012, but, again recent data have been consistently positive. October retail sales surprised to upside, even after taking out gasoline sales, while October housing starts exceeded expectations on a year-over-year basis and multi-family construction permits increased to their highest level since October  2008. The six-month outlooks for both the New York and Philadelphia manufacturing indexes point to optimism.

Although the November reading of 3.6 was down from 8.7 last month, the expectations index for business conditions in Philly over the next six months jumped to 41.9 from 27.2 in October. The current manufacturing outlook in New York was better than expected, and the measure of the outlook six months from now climbed to 39, the highest since June, from 6.7.

Now, because things in the US are beginning to be less ambiguously positive does not mean the end of these days of up-down-all-over-the-place data and jagged global growth.

It’s hard to see how this focus on debt reduction won’t have a negative–perhaps recessionary–impact on growth in Europe. The euro-zone accounts for 15 percent of global GDP. BoC Governor Mark Carney has identified availability of credit to businesses and consumers as European banks repair their balance sheets as the primary determinants of the length and severity of a potential regional recession. Efforts to repair public finances will also result in some contraction. How orderly or disorderly and short or long are these processes will determine whether the US, Australia and the global economy are brought low as well.

China’s biggest export market is the European Union, and overseas sales by Chinese exporters grew at the slowest rate in almost two years last month. Nevertheless, most forecasts call for growth in excess of 8 percent over the next two years.

My colleague Yiannis Mostrous, editor of the Asia-focused Global Investment Strategist, expects 2011 growth “will most likely come in above 9 percent” and 2012 growth of “greater than 8 percent.” Yiannis points out, too, in his Nov. 9 feature article Don’t Bet Against China, that the latest five-year plan governing growth in the Middle Kingdom for the years 2011 to 2015 assumes annual GDP growth of 7 percent, though the key, again, is maintaining sufficient growth to ensure the regime against a popular uprising.

Chinese government officials have been combatting a housing bubble since mid-2010, and property prices as well as living costs in the country’s biggest cities are now moderating. The risk–one that Yiannis advises “will not” happen–is that China’s property market crashes and takes the rest of the economy with it. Any disruption to the Chinese domestic development machine would certainly have negative consequences for Australia, Canada as well as the US.

It’s important to note, however, that the Chinese government can and will loosen credit to keep the economy expanding at a pace sufficient to temper any threats to domestic social order.

Markets will continue to react in violent fashion to the slightest rumors, as battle-weary investors are on hair-trigger alert to preserve their wealth. Remain prepared for further questions about sovereign credit, warnings about a potential reprise of a broader 2008-style credit squeeze and what that entails as far as another recession and how all the chatter will impact those who aren’t committed to a sound plan.

We’ll continue to focus on ours, which is to build a portfolio of high-quality, dividend-paying stocks across sectors, all over the world.

The Roundup

Prime Minister Julia Gillard picked up key support for her mineral resource rent tax (MRRT), which is now before the lower house of Australian Parliament. Three independent members of Parliament, one signing on after gaining a key concession that will lift the profit threshold to AUD75 million from AUD50 million before the new levy takes effect, have now pledged to support the MRRT.

The adjustments will reduce the number of companies covered to about 20 to 30 and reduce the government’s take by about AUD300 million. Eventually the profit threshold will be AUD125 million. Ms. Gillard hopes to take in and redistribute about AUD11.1 billion overall through the MRRT, which her allies suggest will aid schools, hospitals and public transport for Australians at the expense of mining companies.

At the same time, Australian Greens–whose support Ms. Gillard also needs–are now upset because of the extent of the concessions. The government needs the support of the Greens in the Senate for the tax to clear parliament, but they’re seen to be inextricably linked to Ms. Gillard and therefore loath to allow a signature piece of environmental legislation fail.

Public support for the measure–which has the support of the biggest miner on the planet, Australian Edge Portfolio Aggressive Holding BHP Billiton Ltd (ASX: BHP, NYSE: BHP)–is growing. Ms. Gillard said last week that she would lobby her Labor Party to change its stance on exportation of uranium to India, which hasn’t signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Ms. Gillard has said exporting uranium to India represents an economic opportunity too lucrative to pass up. Opponents of the MRRT are saying that her efforts are payback for BHP’s support of the new mining tax. BHP is expected to give the go ahead for its Olympic Dam uranium/copper/gold mine early next year. However Canada and the US have already jumped the gun to satisfy India’s demand; Ms. Gillard’s efforts are unlikely to open any new market demand for BHP. BHP Billiton remains a buy under AUD40 or USD80.

Here’s when each of our current holdings is expected to go ex-dividend the next time. To collect the dividend, investors will have to be stockholders as of the “record date,” which is typically a couple days later. All dates shown are estimated.

Conservative Holdings

• AGL Energy Ltd (ASX: AGL, OTC: AGLNF, ADR: AGLNY)–Mar. 5, 2012
• APA Group (ASX: APA, OTC: APAJF)–Dec. 23, 2011
• Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd (ASX: ANZ, OTC: ANEWF, ADR: ANZBY)–May 10, 2012
• Cardno Ltd (ASX: CDD, OTC: COLDF)–Mar. 7, 2012
• CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL, OTC: CMXHF, ADR: CMXHY)–Feb. 15, 2012
• Envestra Ltd (ASX: ENV, OTC: EVSRF)–Feb. 10, 2012
• Telstra Corp Ltd (ASX: TLS, OTC: TTRAF, ADR: TLSYY)–Feb. 9, 2012

Aggressive Holdings

• BHP Billiton Ltd (ASX: BHP, NYSE: BHP)–Feb. 17, 2012
• GrainCorp Ltd (ASX: GNC, OTC: GRCLF)–Nov. 24, 2011
• Newcrest Mining Ltd (ASX: NCM, OTC: NCMGF, ADR: NCMGY)–Feb. 11, 2012
• New Hope Corp Ltd (ASX: NHC, OTC: NHPEF)–Mar. 20, 2012
• Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG, OTC: OGFGF, ADR: OGFGY)–Feb 24, 2012

Just as they pay dividends semi-annually, so do Australian companies report financials only semi-annually. That makes it doubly important to pay attention when the numbers do come out.

Companies typically announce earnings release dates a few weeks before revealing their numbers and making filings. As a result, the dates shown below are only expected reporting dates, which can vary several days or even weeks. Note that releases are classified as “interim”–which show how a company is doing at the halfway point in its fiscal year–and “final,” which is the fiscal year in full.

The notable exception here is ANZ, which actually does release quarterly earnings data. Approximate reporting dates for the company are Feb. 2, May 2, Aug. 18 and Nov. 2 (full year). Also, Newcrest Mining and Origin Energy issue a quarterly “Sales and Revenue Releases,” in addition to interim results. Newcrest even issues monthly updates.

Conservative Holdings

• AGL Energy Ltd (ASX: AGL, OTC: AGLNF, ADR: AGLNY)–Feb. 23 (interim), Aug. 24 (final)
• APA Group (ASX: APA, OTC: APAJF)–Feb. 22 (interim), Aug. 23 (final)
• Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd (ASX: ANZ, OTC: ANEWF, ADR: ANZBY)–Feb. 2, May 2, Aug. 18, Nov. 2 (final)
• Cardno Ltd (ASX: CDD, OTC: COLDF)–Feb. 15 (interim), Aug. 15 (final)
• CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL, OTC: CMXHF, ADR: CMXHY)–Feb. 16 (interim), Aug. 16 (final)
• Envestra Ltd (ASX: ENV, OTC: EVSRF)–Feb. 23 (interim), Aug. 25 (final)
• Telstra Corp Ltd (ASX: TLS, OTC: TTRAF, ADR: TLSYY)–Feb. 9 (interim), Aug. 10 (final)

Aggressive Holdings

• BHP Billiton Ltd (ASX: BHP, NYSE: BHP)– Feb. 8 (interim), Aug. 24 (final)
• GrainCorp Ltd (ASX: GNC, OTC: GRCLF)– May 26 (interim), Nov. 23 (final)
• Newcrest Mining Ltd (ASX: NCM, OTC: NCMGF, ADR: NCMGY)– Feb. 9 (interim), Apr. 18 (qtr), Jul. 21 (qtr), Aug. 15 (final), Oct. 20 (qtr), monthly sales releases
• New Hope Corp Ltd (ASX: NHC, OTC: NHPEF)– Mar. 22 (interim), Sept. 20 (final)
• Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG, OTC: OGFGF, ADR: OGFGY)– Feb. 22 (interim), Apr. 29, Aug. 22 (final), Nov. 2