Iced Age

Coverage Changes

We’re dropping Arctic Glacier Income Fund (TSX; AG-U, OTC: AGUNF) from How They Rate coverage this month. The company has now sold all of its operating assets and has stated it will not be able to file financial documents in Canada. There are no additions to coverage at this time.

Advice Changes

Bell Aliant Inc (TSX: BA, OTC: BLIAF)–To Buy @ 28 from Hold. The company’s dividend looks safer with its fiber build-out progressing, the financial backing of parent BCE Inc (TSX: BCE, NYSE: BCE) and competition not materializing.

That’s a far different situation from small communications companies in the US, and the yield is generous as well.

Boston Pizza Royalties Income Fund (TSX: BPF-U, OTC: BPZZF)–To Buy @ 18 from Hold. The stock currently trades well above this level, but the franchise is solid and it would be a value on a dip.

Penn West Petroleum Ltd (TSX: PWT, NYSE: PWE)–To Buy @ 15 from Hold. Recovering oil prices take pressure off cash flow and the distribution and the stock trades at a sharp discount to the value of its assets in the ground.

Progress Energy Resources Corp (TSX: PRQ, OTC: PRQNF)–To SELL from Hold. The company’s takeover by Malaysia’s Petroliam Nasional Berhad, better known as Petronas, has received its last needed regulatory approval and will close imminently.

Selling before close means investors won’t have to wait for the CAD22 per share in cash to show up in their accounts. US investors may also want to avoid complications that may arrive if their brokers are inexperienced in Canadian markets.

ShawCor Ltd (TSX: SCL/A, OTC: SAWLF)–To Buy @ 45 from Hold. The company’s largest shareholder says she will support a sale to the highest bidder.

Superior Plus Corp (TSX: SPB, OTC: SUUIF)–To Hold from Buy @ 8. The stock has picked up a lot of ground since late June and is due for a pause, particularly with Canadian authorities questioning some of its tax pools.

Tuckamore Capital Management Inc (TSX: TX, OTC: NWPIF)–To Hold from SELL. The company has paid off all near-term debt maturities and its operating portfolio has stabilized.

Ratings Changes

There are no changes to Canadian Edge Safety Ratings this month. Look for some next issue as we see third-quarter numbers start to come in.

Safety Ratings

The core of my selection process is the six-point CE Safety Rating System, which awards one point for each of the following. A rating of “6” is the safest:

  • Payout Ratio–A ratio below our proprietary industry baseline.
  • Earnings Visibility–Earnings are predictable enough to forecast a payout ratio below our proprietary industry baseline.
  • Debt-to-Assets Ratio–A ratio below our proprietary industry baseline.
  • Short-Term Debt Ratio–Debt due in next two years is less than 10 percent of market capitalization.
  • Business Stability–Companies that can sustain revenues during recessions are favored over more cyclical ones.
  • Dividend History–No dividend cuts over the preceding five years.
Here’s our in-depth explanation of the proprietary Canadian Edge Safety Rating System.

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