Obama Gets Real, TransCanada Keeps Moving

Now he tells you.

And if it wasn’t quite clear by now his comments to Rolling Stone–still plying its sneering cool, without the talent that established it about half a century ago–the sitting President of the United States is as cynical as any who has occupied or will occupy the Oval Office.

To wit: “I have the utmost respect for scientists. But it’s important to understand that Canada is going to be moving forward with tar sands, regardless of what we do. That’s their national policy, they’re pursuing it. With respect to Keystone, my goal has been to have an honest process, and I have adamantly objected to Congress trying to circumvent a process that was well-established not just under Democratic administrations, but also under Republican administrations.

“The reason that Keystone got so much attention is not because that particular pipeline is a make-or-break issue for climate change, but because those who have looked at the science of climate change are scared and concerned about a general lack of sufficient movement to deal with the problem.”

Note he didn’t endorse or not endorse approval of Keystone XL. Doesn’t matter; it’ll happen as a consequence of the Obama re-elect’s strategy to make their man palatable to the center, to set off his reasonableness against the other guy’s “extremism.”

We’ll hear little more, for example, about how Obamacare has its roots in Massachusetts’ Romneycare, though it’s a true fact. These guys have much more in common than they do in conflict, though it won’t help ratings for MSNBC or Fox News if this gets out. The fight is the thing, not getting constructive about the very serious problems we face.

There are two factions that have–and have had–the president wrong from the get-go. Both more or less accept the “hope” and “change” stuff as an honest effort to turn America into a promised land of progressivism, a dream first stoked way back in 1968.

It’s important to note, however, that the man who then embodied all the aspirations of youth on the grand stage of raw power was himself only a recent convert, albeit by the unbelievably trying circumstances of a brother’s assassination. With all due respect, Bobby Kennedy, focus of the founding myth of today’s Democratic Party, was a hard-core Cold Warrior and hatchet man.

The words he delivered the night Martin Luther King, Jr. was shot deservedly stands out among American political speeches; I bet not even the great O-rator could make an extemporaneous Aeschylus pull. But let’s not forget who ran secret CIA operations abroad on behalf of his brother, or who, earlier, served on the staff of Senator Joe McCarthy, who was godfather to RFK’s first child.

I don’t aim to smear the memory of a man I believe to have been a great leader and a dedicated public servant. I think it is important, however, to appreciate folks of this type in all their glory, in all their shame, as real human beings making difficult decisions, often balanced against very serious personal considerations, while maintaining the public trust.

Mr. Obama is far more cunning realist than he is “Manchurian Candidate,” and Mr. Romney is his perfect foil, the Red Sox, if you will, to the incumbent’s Yankees. In this context differences only matter if you’re blinded by the fury of the internecine battle. The rest of the league’s fans are tired of the manufactured drama, though.

It ain’t easy to be the leader of the free world, certainly not as easy as Chris Matthews, Roger Ailes or the respective chairs of the duopoly we call the Democratic and Republican parties would have you believe. But these folks’ power and profits are perpetuated by this gridlock. And so it won’t go away.

And at the end of the day, this sometimes ugly, often silly and rarely uplifting process will result in a necessary pipeline getting built.

So be it.

Keystone XL: The New Plan

Turning from kabuki to substance, TransCanada Corp (TSX: TRP, NYSE: TRP) submitted a reconfigured plan for Keystone XL to the Nebraska state government on Apr. 18. The new route–which adds about 100 miles to the 1,700 mile pipeline from Alberta to the Gulf of Mexico–will avoid the Sand Hills region of the Cornhusker State as well as the Ogallala aquifer. Approval by Nebraska would smooth the way for ratification by the US State Department.

TransCanada now projects Keystone XL to come on line by 2015, about a year later than originally planned. It will be capable of carrying 830,000 barrels of crude per day from Western Canada to Texas refineries.

Warm winter weather and low natural gas prices combined to throttle TransCanada’s first-quarter earnings, as “comparable” earnings came in at CAD363 million, or CAD0.52 per share, down from CAD423 million, or CAD0.61 per share, and short of consensus expectations of CAD0.54 per share.

Net income attributable to shareholders declined 14.4 percent to CAD352 million (CAD0.50 per share) from CAD411 million (CAD0.59 per share) a year ago. Revenue ticked up 2.7 percent to CAD1.91 billion from CAD1.86 billion in the first quarter of 2011.

Planned maintenance at the Bruce Power nuclear plant in Ontario also impacted earnings. The return to service of two refurbished reactors at Bruce and the contribution from other new assets position TransCanada well for the future. Key to future cash flows, earnings and dividends is TransCanada’s CAD13 billion, three-year capital program, which includes the XL extension to the existing Keystone Pipeline System, which is proceeding, albeit in piecemeal fashion.

TransCanada announced in February that what had previously been the Cushing, Oklahoma, to the US Gulf Coast portion of Keystone XL “has its own independent value” and will be constructed as the stand-alone Gulf Coast Project; this means it isn’t part of the Presidential Permit process. The approximate cost of the 36-inch line is USD2.3 billion.

Subject to regulatory approvals, TransCanada expects the Gulf Coast Project to be in service in mid- to late 2013. As of Mar. 31, 2012, TransCanada has invested USD800 million in the project. Included in the overall USD2.3 billion cost is USD300 million for the 47-mile Houston Lateral pipeline that will transport oil to Houston refineries.

US crude oil production has been growing significantly in Oklahoma, Texas, North Dakota and Montana, but producers don’t have access to enough pipeline capacity to move this production to the Gulf Coast refining market. TransCanada’s Gulf Coast Project will ease this constraint.

TransCanada will pay a CAD0.44 per share dividend on Jul. 31 to shareholders of record as of Jun. 29. The shares will trade ex-dividend as of Jun. 27. The company hasn’t cut its dividend in the 10 years we have on record, including during the period known as the Great Financial Crisis.

The Roundup

Here’s when the Canadian Edge Portfolio will report earnings. Those yet to specify a date are indicated as “estimated,” with dates shown based on prior reporting periods. Click on links to review analysis of numbers already released.

Conservative Holdings

  • AltaGas Ltd (TSX: ALA, OTC: ATGFF)–Apr. 26 Flash Alert
  • Artis REIT (TSX: AX-U, OTC: ARESF)–May 9 (confirmed)
  • Atlantic Power Corp (TSX: ATP, NYSE: AT)–May 7 (confirmed)
  • Bird Construction Inc (TSX: BDT, OTC: BIRDF)–Jun. 1 (estimate)
  • Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners LP (TSX: BEP-U, OTC: BRPUF)–May 7 (tentative)
  • Canadian Apartment Properties REIT (TSX: CAR-U, OTC: CDPYF)–May 9 (confirmed)
  • Cineplex Inc (TSX: CGX, OTC: CPXGF)–May 10 (confirmed)
  • Davis + Henderson Income Corp (TSX: DH, OTC: DHIFF)–May 8 (confirmed)
  • Dundee REIT (TSX: D-U, OTC: DRETF)–May 3 (confirmed)
  • EnerCare Inc (TSX: ECI, OTC: CSUWF)–May 9 (estimate)
  • IBI Group Inc (TSX: IBG, OTC: IBIBF)–May 11 (confirmed)
  • Innergex Renewable Energy Inc (TSX: INE, OTC: INGXF)–May 14 (confirmed)
  • Just Energy Group Inc (TSX: JE, OTC: JUSTF)–May 18 (estimate)
  • Keyera Corp (TSX: KEY, OTC: KEYUF)–May 8 (confirmed)
  • Northern Property REIT (TSX: NPR-U, OTC: NPRUF)–May 9 (confirmed)
  • Pembina Pipeline Corp (TSX: PPL, OTC: PBNPF)–May 3 (confirmed)
  • RioCan REIT (TSX: REI-U, OTC: RIOCF)–May 3 (confirmed)
  • Shaw Communications Inc (TSX: SJR/B, NYSE: SJR)–Apr. 26 Flash Alert
  • Student Transportation Inc (TSX: STB, OTC: STUXF)–May 11 (estimate)
  • TransForce Inc (TSX: TFI, OTC: TFIFF)–Apr. 26 Flash Alert

Aggressive Holdings

  • Acadian Timber Corp (TSX: ADN, OTC: ACAZF)–May 1 (confirmed)
  • Ag Growth International Inc (TSX: AFN, OTC: AGGZF)–May 11 (confirmed)
  • ARC Resources Ltd (TSX: ARX, OTC: AETUF)–May 17 (estimate)
  • Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (TSX: CHE-U, OTC: CGIFF)–May 9 (confirmed)
  • Colabor Group Inc (TSX: GCL, OTC: COLFF)–May 2 (confirmed)
  • Crescent Point Energy Corp (TSX: CPG, OTC: CSCTF)–May 11 (estimate)
  • Extendicare REIT (TSX: EXE-U, OTC: EXETF)–May 8 (confirmed)
  • Newalta Corp (TSX: NAL, OTC: NWLTF)–May 8 (confirmed)
  • Noranda Income Fund (TSX: NIF-U, OTC: NNDIF)–Jun. 14 (estimate)
  • Parkland Fuel Corp (TSX: PKI, OTC: PKIUF)–May 8 (confirmed)
  • PetroBakken Energy Ltd (TSX: PBN, OTC: PBKEF)–May 9 (estimate)
  • Peyto Exploration & Development Corp (TSX: PEY, OTC: PEYUF)–May 11 (estimate)
  • PHX Energy Services Corp (TSX: PHX, OTC: PHXHF)–May 18 (estimate)
  • Vermilion Energy Inc (TSX: VET, OTC: VEMTF)–May 7 (estimate)

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