That the Bank of Canada maintained its overnight rate target at 1 percent after its Apr. 17 meeting was not a great surprise. The statement the BoC and Governor Mark Carney released to explain its decision did, however, contain a few compelling points.

And this is to say nothing of the rumpus caused by the increasingly globally significant governor reportedly meeting with the Bank of England’s overseers, who are seeking the successor to Governor Sir Mervyn King.

As for monetary policy, the BoC noted at the outset of its most recent statement that the “profile for the global economy has improved” since its January 2012 Monetary Policy Report (MPR), when the central bank noted a “deterioration” in the global outlook from the previous October. At the time Europe’s sovereign debt crisis had intensified, financial markets were shaky again and investors were fleeing risky assets

In January the BoC expected the recession in Europe to be “deeper and longer” than previously anticipated.

The key factor now, however, is a more rapid return to health for Canada’s southern neighbor: “The profile for US growth is slightly stronger, reflecting the balance of somewhat improved labour markets, financial conditions and confidence on the one hand, and emerging fiscal consolidation and ongoing household deleveraging on the other.”

In the estimation of the BoC emerging market growth will “moderate to a still-robust pace over the projection horizon,” about three months out, or until the next quarterly MPR is released in July.

The BoC took special care to note the potential negative impact of higher energy prices on “the improvement in economic momentum.”

Finally, however, “economic momentum in Canada is slightly firmer than the Bank had expected in January,” as potential threats perceived from abroad in winter have receded. The BoC also pointed out that Canadian household spending is high relative to gross domestic product (GDP), a condition which is trending in the wrong direction as consumers continue to lever up. This, in the BoC’s view, is the biggest domestic risk.

The BoC is calling for GDP growth of 2.4 percent in both 2012 and 2013 and 2.2 percent in 2014. With less “slack” in the economy than previously anticipated and higher gasoline prices, the central bank expects inflation to hover near 2 percent, in the middle of the 1 percent-to-3 percent target range. However the BoC did close by signaling potential rate hikes to come, noting that “some modest withdrawal of the present considerable monetary stimulus may become appropriate.”

If you’re an American investor concerned about a soft US dollar, the prospect of vitamin QE3 and the long-term condition of Uncle Sam’s finances, there few better ways to protect yourself than to own dividend-paying stocks backed by high-quality Canada-based businesses.

The Canadian dollar has rallied hard against the buck since North American equities markets bottomed around Mar. 9, 2009, rising from about USD0.76 to right around parity. The loonie has been buoyed by the fact that the Bank of Canada–after it, too, brought its target down near the effective “zero bound” as the Great Recession took hold of the global economy–has pursued a largely conventional monetary policy.

Public finances are in much better shape, as according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as of December 2011 Canada’s net government debt as a percentage of GDP stood at just 33.3 percent. By contrast, the US ratio stood at 102.9 percent, while the UK was at 82.5 percent.

The combination of Europe not slipping into an abyss, the US picking up steam and continuing slower but still rapid growth in emerging markets is pushing up oil prices. This is good for Canadian producers but could create problems with the recovery if fuel costs take up too much of consumers’ disposable income. As of now, however, Canada remains in a sweet spot of sorts in the mixed-up economy.

From the BoC to the BoE?

BoC Governor Mark Carney, who made his bones as the architect of the Canadian Finance Department’s income trust tax policy in 2006 and is now also the head of the G-20’s Global Financial Stability Board, has been “approached as a potential candidate” to replace Bank of England Governor Sir Mervyn King, according to a report in the Financial Times.

This is yet more evidence of Canada’s higher international profile in the aftermath of the Great Recession. Noted the FT: “Naming a foreigner as governor of the 318-year-old central bank would break with tradition, although Mr. Carney has a British wife, studied at Oxford university, and worked at Goldman Sachs in London early in his career. ‘As a Canadian national he is a subject of the Queen,’ said one supporter. ‘That is important.’”

According to the FT, “Mr. Carney’s potential candidacy has been discussed within an inner circle at the BoE although not formally at any court meetings.”

IMF GDP A-OK

In its spring global economic outlook the IMF forecast the Canadian economy would grow by 2.1 percent in 2012 and 2.2 percent in 2013, which represents an upgrade from January’s forecast of 1.7 percent and 2 percent growth, respectively. Although still moderate by historical standards and slightly lagging the BoC’s projections, the IMF puts Canada–along with the US–in the top tier of the Group of Seven industrial nations.

Global economic growth, still led by China, will be 3.5 percent in 2012 and 4.1 percent in 2013, up from prior estimates of 3.3 percent and 3.9 percent, respectively.

According to the IMF, “In Canada, the recovery is well advanced with room for policy-makers to respond flexibly to changes in the economic outlook, including by allowing full operation of automatic fiscal stabilizers and resorting to stimulus should the recovery threaten to falter.”

The Roundup

Internet, satellite and television company Shaw Communications (TSX: SJR/B, NYSE: SJR), whose fiscal year runs from Sept. 1 to Aug. 31, is the first Canadian Edge Portfolio Holding to report in this second earnings cycle of the trading/calendar year.

Last week the company announced that it now expects free cash flow will be CAD450 million for fiscal 2012, about CAD100 million lower than guidance issued in January because of new costs related to staffing and marketing efforts required to remain competitive in an increasingly hostile environment.

During the three months ended Feb. 29 Shaw posted profit growth of 3.5 percent, as revenue was up 3 percent to CAD1.23 billion. Net income from continuing operations was CAD178 million (CAD0.38 per share).

Revenue from Shaw’s key cable division was CAD804 million, while satellite operations contributed CAD211 million and the media division kicked in CAD242 million. Shaw lost 9,946 cable subscribers, better than the 13,662 it lost a year ago. The company added 46,564 digital subscribers, up from 35,403 in the second quarter of fiscal 2011. Internet subscriber additions grew to 18,681 from 10,772. Shaw Communications remains a buy under USD22.

Here are confirmed and estimated earnings announcement dates for the rest of the CE Portfolio.

Conservative Holdings

• AltaGas Ltd (TSX: ALA, OTC: ATGFF)–Apr. 26 (confirmed)
• Artis REIT (TSX: AX-U, OTC: ARESF)–May 9 (confirmed)
• Atlantic Power Corp (TSX: ATP, NYSE: AT)–May 7 (confirmed)
• Bird Construction Inc (TSX: BDT, OTC: BIRDF)–May 4 (estimate)
• Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners LP (TSX: BEP-U, OTC: BRPUF)–May 7 (confirmed)
• Canadian Apartment Properties REIT (TSX: CAR-U, OTC: CDPYF)–May 9 (confirmed)
• Cineplex Inc (TSX: CGX, OTC: CPXGF)–May 11 (estimate)
• Davis + Henderson Income Corp (TSX: DH, OTC: DHIFF)–May 10 (estimate)
• Dundee REIT (TSX: D-U, OTC: DRETF)–May 11 (estimate)
• EnerCare Inc (TSX: ECI, OTC: CSUWF)–May 9 (estimate)
• IBI Group Inc (TSX: IBG, OTC: IBIBF)–Jun. 1 (estimate)
• Innergex Renewable Energy Inc (TSX: INE, OTC: INGXF)–May 14 (confirmed)
• Just Energy Group Inc (TSX: JE, OTC: JUSTF)–May 18 (estimate)
• Keyera Corp (TSX: KEY, OTC: KEYUF)–May 8 (confirmed)
• Northern Property REIT (TSX: NPR-U, OTC: NPRUF)–May 9 (confirmed)
• Pembina Pipeline Corp (TSX: PPL, OTC: PBNPF)–May 25 (estimate)
• RioCan REIT (TSX: REI-U, OTC: RIOCF)–May 3 (confirmed)
• Student Transportation Inc (TSX: STB, OTC: STUXF)–May 11 (estimate)
• TransForce Inc (TSX: TFI, OTC: TFIFF)–Apr. 26 (confirmed)

Aggressive Holdings

• Acadian Timber Corp (TSX: ADN, OTC: ACAZF)–May 1 (confirmed)
• Ag Growth International Inc (TSX: AFN, OTC: AGGZF)–May 11 (confirmed)
• ARC Resources Ltd (TSX: ARX, OTC: AETUF)–May 17 (estimate)
• Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (TSX: CHE-U, OTC: CGIFF)–May 30 (estimate)
• Colabor Group Inc (TSX: GCL, OTC: COLFF)–May 4 (estimate)
• Crescent Point Energy Corp (TSX: CPG, OTC: CSCTF)–May 11 (estimate)
• Extendicare REIT (TSX: EXE-U, OTC: EXETF)–May 8 (confirmed)
• Newalta Corp (TSX: NAL, OTC: NWLTF)–May 9 (estimate)
• Noranda Income Fund (TSX: NIF-U, OTC: NNDIF)–Jun. 14 (estimate)
• Parkland Fuel Corp (TSX: PKI, OTC: PKIUF)–May 7 (tentative)
• PetroBakken Energy Ltd (TSX: PBN, OTC: PBKEF)–May 9 (estimate)
• Peyto Exploration & Development Corp (TSX: PEY, OTC: PEYUF)–May 11 (estimate)
• PHX Energy Services Corp (TSX: PHX, OTC: PHXHF)–May 18 (estimate)
• Vermilion Energy Inc (TSX: VET, OTC: VEMTF)–May 7 (estimate)