12 Companies, 10 Days, 4 Flash Alerts

In four Flash Alerts published over the course of 10 days this month my colleague and Canadian Edge Editor Roger Conrad has provided a lengthy preview of what’s shaping up to be another impressive reporting season for the CE Portfolio. Any questions subscribers have about ARC Resources Ltd (TSX: ARX, OTC: AETUF), Cineplex Inc (TSX: CGX, OTC: CPXGF), RioCan REIT (TSX: REI-U, OTC: RIOCF) or any other of the 12 Holdings that have reported as of Thursday, Feb. 23, can be answered somewhere in this initial flurry of Alerts.

As for general impressions from what is a decent cross-section of Canadian industry, it’s clear that the abiding conservatism for which the Great White North is now widely held up as an example seems to inform decision-making all the way down at the individual-company level.

Acadian Timber Corp (TSX: ADN, OTC: ACAZF), for example, which in addition to threats to demand in key markets yet to fully rebound from the damage of 2008-09, including US housing, also suffered through an abnormally wet quarter that hampered production, was able to maintain its dividend because underlying assumptions management adopted more than a year ago have proved less rosy than reality, even as the global economy suffered through a more treacherous patch in what’s become a new normal of jagged and lumpy growth.

Management also reiterated relatively upbeat full-year guidance. Although Acadian’s payout ratio came in above 100 percent, the backing of a strong parent in Brookfield Asset Management (TSX: BAM, NYSE: BAM) and the increasingly likely return to health for some of its key markets suggests the current rate will be maintained. Beating what are right now low expectations could provide a nice lift for Acadian’s share price.

As for mainstay ARC, production was up 8.7 percent year over year and 8 percent quarter over quarter. The average realized price for its natural gas output was off by 10.4 percent, but ARC’s ever-more critical and prescient shift to liquids, along with rising production, helped the company grow funds from operations by 25.4 percent.

And Canada’s dominant movie-theater operator grew cash flow 3.2 percent despite a less-than-stellar playbill, as its imaginative efforts to diversify revenue streams and creative ways to get more of each attendee’s entertainment dollar apart from the box-office admission. Cineplex was able to overcome a 4.2 percent decline in tickets sold because media revenue rose 11.2 percent and its industry-leading efforts to install IMAX and 3D-capable screens support higher ticket prices.

Both ARC and Cineplex maintain flexible balance sheets and should have no problems navigating whatever conditions are present in credit markets in coming quarters. ARC is yielding 4.7 percent at current levels, Cineplex 4.8 percent and the riskier Acadian 7.5 percent.

Pembina Pipeline Corp (TSX: PPL, OTC: PBNPF), meanwhile, affirmed its intention to lift its monthly distribution 3.8 percent once its proposed merger with Provident Energy Ltd (TSX: PVE, NYSE: PVX) closes, which should happen soon after Mar. 29 shareholder votes for both companies.

Pembina’s full-year adjusted cash flow from operating activities was up 15.6 percent from 2010 levels on solid contributions from Midstream & Marketing, Oil Sands Transportation and Gas Services, which offset softer results from Conventional Pipelines. The company continues to add productive assets on efficient terms, building wealth for investors in the process.

It’s currently yielding 5.5 percent, with reliable growth assured by CAD526 million in capital expenditures in 2011 and another CAD550 million on tap for 2012–accounting that doesn’t include the Provident merger.

You may want to use a “buy limit” order to establish your position in Pembina Pipeline; at current levels, as of the close of North American trading Feb. 23, 2012, the stock is priced a bit beyond its CE “buy-under” target. A “buy limit” order is an order to purchase a security at or below a specified price. It allows you to specify the price you’re willing to pay for a stock.

You’re guaranteed to pay your “buy limit” price or better if your order is filled. But there’s no guarantee your specified price will be met.

We’re not traders, however, and should a price rise and stay above a target we’ll either adjust according to the dividend growth that justifies it or else avoid it because the market is simply in love with a story. At any rate, please consult the Canadian Edge Portfolio and How They Rate tables for up-to-date advice.

Long-Term Outperformance Is Simple

The conservatism Canada’s lauded for could well have been called “simplicity” by the same folks who nominated the country for honorary “Third World” status way back in the early 1990s, when the debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio in the Great White North was in the neighborhood of triple digits and “socialism” threatened the breakdown of the whole misbegotten enterprise.

What allowed Canada to turn the corner, the things people are commending to others who now face their own dire straits, is a pretty basic combination: a well-educated and productive citizenry that pays its taxes.

The Roundup

Here are reporting dates for Canadian Edge Portfolio Holdings yet to reveal earnings during the current season. Click on hyperlinks to go directly to analysis for individual companies.

Conservative Holdings

  • AltaGas Ltd (TSX: ALA, OTC: ATGFF)–Mar. 8, 2012 (confirmed)
  • Artis REIT (TSX: AX-U, OTC: ARESF)–Mar. 14, 2012 (confirmed)
  • Atlantic Power Corp (TSX: ATP, NYSE: AT)–Feb. 29, 2012 (confirmed)
  • Bird Construction Inc (TSX: BDT, OTC: BIRDF)–Mar. 2, 2012 (estimate)
  • Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners LP (TSX: BEP-U, OTC: BRPUF)–Feb. 15, 2012, Flash Alert
  • Canadian Apartment Properties REIT (TSX: CAR-U, OTC: CDPYF)–Feb. 28, 2012 (confirmed)
  • Cineplex Inc (TSX: CGX, OTC: CPXGF)–Feb. 9, 2012, Flash Alert
  • Colabor Inc (TSX: GCL, OTC: COLFF)–Mar. 8, 2012 (estimate)
  • Davis + Henderson Income Corp (TSX: DH, OTC: DHIFF)–Mar. 6, 2012 (confirmed)
  • Dundee REIT (TSX: D-U, OTC: DRETF)–Feb. 22, 2012 (confirmed)
  • EnerCare Inc (TSX: ECI, OTC: CSUWF)–Feb. 24, 2012 (confirmed)
  • IBI Group Inc (TSX: IBG, OTC: IBIBF)–Mar. 21, 2012 (estimate)
  • Innergex Renewable Energy Inc (TSX: INE, OTC: INGXF)–Mar. 23, 2012 (estimate)
  • Just Energy Group Inc (TSX: JE, OTC: JUSTF)–Feb. 9, 2012, Flash Alert
  • Keyera Corp (TSX: KEY, OTC: KEYUF)–Feb. 16, 2012, Flash Alert
  • Northern Property REIT (TSX: NPR-U, OTC: NPRUF)–Mar. 13, 2012 (confirmed)
  • Pembina Pipeline Corp (TSX: PPL, OTC: PBNPF)–Feb. 15, 2012, Flash Alert
  • Provident Energy Ltd (TSX: PVE, NYSE: PVX)–Mar. 6, 2012 (confirmed)
  • RioCan REIT (TSX: REI-U, OTC: RIOCF)–Feb. 15, 2012, Flash Alert
  • Shaw Communications (TSX: SJR/B, NYSE: SJR)–Jan. 12, 2012, Flash Alert
  • Student Transportation Inc (TSX: STB, OTC: STUXF)–Feb. 15, 2012, Flash Alert
  • TransForce Inc (TSX: TFI, OTC: TFIFF)–Feb. 29, 2012 (confirmed)

Aggressive Holdings

  • Acadian Timber Corp (TSX: ADN, OTC: ACAZF)–Feb. 7, 2012, Flash Alert
  • Ag Growth International Inc (TSX: AFN, OTC: AGGZF)–Mar. 14, 2012 (estimate)
  • ARC Resources Ltd (TSX: ARX, OTC: AETUF)–Feb. 9, 2012, Flash Alert
  • Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (TSX: CHE-U, OTC: CGIFF)–Feb. 23, 2012 (confirmed)
  • Crescent Point Energy Corp (TSX: CPG, OTC: CSCTF)–Mar. 16, 2012 (estimate)
  • Enerplus Corp (TSX: ERF, NYSE: ERF)–Feb. 24, 2012 (estimate)
  • Extendicare REIT (TSX: EXE-U, OTC: EXETF)–Feb. 29, 2012 (confirmed)
  • Newalta Corp (TSX: NAL, OTC: NWLTF)–Feb. 16, 2012, Flash Alert
  • Noranda Income Fund (TSX: NIF-U, OTC: NNDIF)–Feb. 15, 2012, Flash Alert
  • Parkland Fuel Corp (TSX: PKI, OTC: PKIUF)–Mar. 14, 2012 (estimate)
  • Penn West Petroleum Ltd (TSX: PWT, NYSE: PWE)–Feb. 16, 2012, Flash Alert
  • Peyto Exploration & Development Corp (TSX: PEY, OTC: PEYUF)–Mar. 9, 2012 (estimate)
  • PHX Energy Services Corp (TSX: PHX, OTC: PHXHF)–Mar. 7, 2012 (estimate)
  • Vermilion Energy Inc (TSX: VET, OTC: VEMTF)–Feb. 29, 2012 (estimate)

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