This is it for Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

On May 2 Canadians will go to the polls for the fourth time in seven years, in what’s likely to amount to a big waste of everyone’s time and a lot of people’s money. That Mr. Harper is equally likely to be the biggest beneficiary of an unnecessary election is yet another indication of the complete political incompetence of a leader of the main opposition Liberal Party, this time Michael Ignatieff standing in for Stephane Dion.

What’s the opposite of a “Hail Mary” answered on the American gridiron? Have the Canadians fixed a name to a missed penalty shot on the ice? Would coughing up a majority at this point, let alone losing power, compare, for Mr. Harper, to taking out your own curling stone from the centre of the house on your hammer delivery?

(I choose not to pick on Butler and the Bulldogs’ 12-for-64, 18.8 percent shooting on Monday night, although think about what that says about a competitor, if the premise is that we’re trying to understand his strategy: He goes in hoping that his opponent turns in an historically poor performance in terms of the contest’s most basic skill?)

That’s about how it boils down, at least for Mr. Ignatieff. Recent movement in an overnight tracking poll suggests there will be enough drama to keep headline writers happy for the duration, but the basic contours of this race are well established. Even after a 4.3 percentage point swing at the federal level the Tories are still up, 39.8 percent to 30.2 percent, over the Grits. Applying basic principles of rounding, we see that that’s about 10 points.

If he keeps this pace, sure, he’ll make that up, and more, by May 2. But he won’t.

Canadian Election Math Equals Conservative Majority

According to one Canada-based riding-by-riding analyst the question of Mr. Harper’s majority will be answered in Atlantic Canada and Ontario. Writing for the National Post, Bryan Breguet, proprietor of electoral forecasting website TooClosetoCall.ca, charted the Conservative path to a majority:    

Opinion polls conducted days before the election was triggered (or right after) consistently show the same thing: a big lead for the Conservatives. Moreover, they also show strong numbers for the Tories in two regions where the potential gains are big: Atlantic Canada and of course, Ontario. Translated into seats, these polls give a (narrow) majority to Harper.

Stephen Harper and his advisors know that. This is why they decided to run such a risk-less campaign so far, with no big policy announcement (mostly items from the defeated 2011 budget). Here is how Harper and his party can get a majority: make some gains in Atlantic Canada, especially in Newfoundland and Labrador, where the ABC (Anything But Conservatives) effect seems gone; keep the couple of seats they currently hold in Quebec; increase the lead over the Liberals in Ontario, where they could get as many as 60 seats, a nine-seat gain over 2008 (most of them in the GTA); finally, in the Prairies, Alberta and B.C., they can simply keep what they have. Of course, sweeping Alberta would be nice but it’s more like a bonus.

The current projections place the Conservatives at 155 seats; 140 of them safe (i.e: won by a margin of more than 5-points), and 33 close (of which they are projected to win 15). A good riding-targeting and an efficient machine to get the vote out in those ridings would help them in securing a bigger majority.

There are currently 308 seats in the House of Commons. One hundred fifty-five is exactly what the Tories need to send Mr. Harper back to Ottawa as a majority prime minister. The mountain Mr. Ignatieff has to climb is huge, and he’s choosing a well-worn and cynical route around it.

Canadian Election Blows Budget…

The task for Mr. Harper is to convince Canadians that electing a majority Conservative government is the best way to ensure a sustainable economic recovery. What Mr. Ignatieff will try to do is turn Stephen J. Harper into Richard M. Nixon.

The Mar. 25 no-confidence vote that torpedoed Mr. Harper’s latest (and last?) minority government had nothing to do with the 2011-12 federal budget introduced earlier the same week. All three major opposition parties–the Liberals, joined by the New Democratic Party (NDP) and the Bloc Quebecois–said they’d vote “no” on the package as presented almost immediately after it became public, and the Tories said no amendments would be entertained.

The Friday afternoon motion of non-confidence found that Mr. Harper’s government held Parliament “in contempt” for failing to detail costs of legislation. This is the first blow at what the opposition, collectively, it seems, and with an eye on some sort of coalition should the Conservatives be denied a majority, at Mr. Harper’s and his administration’s ethics. There are accusations of “influence peddling” and rumblings about other “dirty tricks.”

The trouble is, Canadians aren’t particularly interested right now in what the Grits, the NDP and the Bloc are selling. Approximately half see no reason for an election, and that’s before we have a real idea of what it’s going to cost; experience–the 2004 and 2006 parliamentary elections, specifically–suggest north of a quarter of a billion loonies. The costs don’t even get to the issue of whether there’s anything to even contest.

An Ipsos Reid poll conducted between Mar. 21 and Mar. 23 on behalf of Postmedia News and Global National revealed that nearly half of Canadians, or 49 percent, believe that Mr. Harper would make the best Prime Minister of Canada. NDP leader Jack Layton is actually runner-up, ahead of Mr. Ignatieff, with 34 percent. Mr. Ignatieff is in third with 17 percent.

More important is that Canadians believe the most important issue before the public today is “health care and health issues,” which was the unprompted response of 18 percent of those polled. “The economy” was second at 15 percent, while “taxes” (12 percent) and “unemployment/jobs” (8 percent) came up third and fourth, respectively. “Honesty/trust” is the most important issue to 7 percent of Canadians.

The centerpiece of the budget that started the drive to the polls, for the Canadian business community and for foreign investors, is the Conservatives’ plan to cut the corporate tax rate to 15 percent by 2012. It was pretty vanilla package that included a few extra expenditures on plans the Liberals would otherwise love. It’s a reasonable budget during what’s still a tense time for the global economy. It keeps Canada on course for budget balance in a reasonable time frame, and it allows for the fact that the recession’s consequences continue.

The Liberals, for their part, have promised to raise corporate rates. Mr. Ignatieff’s efforts on the trail thus far, which have generated mild, relative success, focus on trust and other abstractions.

Mr. Harper reminds voters about his half-decade track record on the economy, which includes guiding Canada during the worst global downturn in 80 years to a position of renewed significance on the world stage. It’s like they stripped out all the worst elements of Tricky Dick’s character, and left us with Simply Stephen.

The Roundup

The ugliness of Canadian oil sands production is well known. In fact I touched on this issue during a presentation to the Investing Daily Wealth Summit last weekend in Las Vegas. The blight on the land that is open-pit mining–what with tailing ponds, large scars across the land and dead geese–is about all most people know about what goes on in North Central Alberta, around Lake Murray.

Little do most people realize–and this is a fact I, too, failed to report during a presentation that focused on the Canadian oil sands is an increasingly critical global resource–is that open-pit operations, the ugly kind, comprise roughly 20 percent of activity in the region. There’s an alternative, steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD), that’s been used for about a decade. SAGD is the technology that promises to make Canadian oil sands production cleaner, more efficient and scalable to a degree that will allow politicians to honestly discuss things like “energy independence.”

Results from one particular company, MEG Energy Corp (TSX: MEG, OTC: MEGEF) suggest as much. MEG is on track for further reductions of per-barrel production costs for the first quarter of 2011, after posting a 70 percent-plus reduction in fourth quarter of 2010 from year-earlier levels. During a presentation before the Barclay’s Capital High Yield Bond & Syndicated Loan Conference on Mar. 25 MEG management described the company’s particular gifts, including its 800 square miles of 100 percent owned oil sands leases that hold an estimated 1.9 billion barrels of proved plus probable reserves, as well as the relative advantages of SAGD.

SAGD involves drilling from the surface what appear to be familiar horizontal wells, one about 15 feet about another. Steam is run through the upper well, heating the resource; steam and oil drains down to the lower well and is pumped to the surface. A single drill pad housing six pairs of SAGD wells can work an area equal to about 96 football fields; the drill pad takes up about 10 percent to 15 percent of the worked land, but you’ll see nothing else on the surface.

As of Dec. 31, 2010, MEG’s proved plus probable reserves represent an estimated discounted present value of CAD12.1 billion. The more compelling statistic, however, is MEG’s 2.3-to-1 steam-oil ratio. This is in part the result of MEG’s unique use of local water.

The company doesn’t use fresh water in its process, sourcing instead from subsurface aquifers of non-potable water–water that wouldn’t be used for drinking or agriculture. It’s brought to the surface and cleaned for use in MEG’s steam-generation equipment, and it’s constantly recycled.

From both a surface land perspective and a water-use perspective, MEG is efficient.

After refinancing more than CAD1 billion in outstanding loans in late March MEG, a recent addition to How They Rate coverage, has more than CAD2 billion in cash, CAD500 million in available credit lines and estimated cash flow of CAD500 million in 2011 and 2012. Phase 2B of its flagship Christina Lake project will cost about CAD1.4 billion to bring to full stream, leaving considerable room to fund more development.

Still surging to post-IPO highs and offering nothing in the way of a dividend, MEG Energy is a hold. We’ll continue to follow MEG’s innovations in SAGD and its quest for ever-shrinking steam-to-oil ratios.

Here’s up-to-date information on first-quarter reporting dates for Canadian Edge Portfolio Holdings.

Aggressive Holdings

• Acadian Timber Corp (TSX: ADN, OTC: ACAZF)–May 2 (confirmed)
• Ag Growth International (TSX: AFN, OTC: AGGZF)–May 13 (estimate)
• ARC Resources Ltd (TSX: ARX, OTC: AETUF)–May 5 (estimate)
• Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (TSX: CHE-U, OTC: CGIFF)–May 10 (estimate)
• Daylight Energy Ltd (TSX: DAY, OTC: DAYYF)–May 6 (estimate)
• EnerCare Inc (TSX: ECI, OTC: CSUWF)–Apr. 29 (estimate)
• Enerplus Corp (TSX: ERF, NYSE: ERF)–May 13 (confirmed)
• Newalta Corp (TSX: NAL, OTC: NWLTF)–May 10 (estimate)
• Parkland Fuel Corp (TSX: PKI, OTC: PKIUF)–May 16 (estimate)
• Penn West Petroleum Ltd (TSX: PWT, NYSE: PWE)–May 5 (confirmed)
• Perpetual Energy (TSX: PMT, OTC: PMGYF)–May 10 (estimate)
• Peyto Exploration & Development Corp (TSX: PEY, OTC: PEYUF)–May 12 (estimate)
• PHX Energy Services Corp (TSX: PHX, OTC: PHXHF)–May 6 (estimate)
• Provident Energy Ltd (TSX: PVE, NYSE: PVX)–May 13 (estimate)
• Vermillion Energy Inc (TSX: VET, OTC: VEMTF)–May 6 (estimate)
• Yellow Media Inc (TSX: YLO, OTC: YLWPF)–May 5 (tentative)

Conservative Holdings

• AltaGas Ltd (TSX: ALA, OTC: ATGFF)–Apr. 29 (estimate)
• Artis REIT (TSX: AX-U, OTC: ARESF)–May 12 (estimate)
• Atlantic Power Corp (TSX: ATP, NYSE: AT)–May 13 (estimate)
• Bird Construction Inc (TSX: BDT, OTC: BIRDF)–May 10 (estimate)
• Brookfield Renewable Power Fund (TSX: BRC-U, OTC: BRPFF)–May 13 (estimate)
• Canadian Apartment Properties REIT (TSX: CAR-U, OTC: CDPYF)–May 11 (estimate)
• Cineplex Inc (TSX: CGX, OTC: CPXGF)–May 13 (estimate)
• CML Healthcare Inc (TSX: CLC, OTC: CMHIF)–May 5 (estimate)
• Colabor Group (TSX: GCL, OTC: COLFF)–Apr. 28 (estimate)
• Davis + Henderson Income Corp (TSX: DH, OTC: DHIFF)–May 4 (estimate)
• Extendicare REIT (TSX: EXE-U, OTC: EXETF)–May 6 (estimate)
• IBI Group Inc (TSX: IBG, OTC: IBIBF)–May 6 (estimate)
• Innergex Renewable Energy (TSX: INE, OTC: INGXF)–May 10 (estimate)
• Just Energy Group Inc (TSX: JE, OTC: JSTEF)–May 20 (estimate)
• Keyera Corp (TSX: KEY, OTC: KEYUF)–May 10 (confirmed)
• Macquarie Power & Infrastructure Corp (TSX: MPT, OTC: MCQPF)–May 11 (estimate)
• Northern Property REIT (TSX: NPR-U, OTC: NPRUF)–May 11 (estimate)
• Pembina Pipeline Corp (TSX: PPL, OTC: PBNPF)–May 6 (estimate)
• RioCan REIT (TSX: REI-U, OTC: RIOCF)–Apr. 29 (estimate)
• TransForce (TSX: TFI, OTC: TFIFF)–May 17 (confirmed)