Now more than ever Canada’s resources are critical not only to US economic health but to that of the world. This much is clear after the magnitude 9.0 earthquake and ensuing 50-foot tsunami that crippled northeastern Japan and left a six-reactor nuclear power plant a steaming pile.

The reaction to the threat represented by Fukushima-Daiichi is out of proportion to the realities of nuclear generation compared to other forms of power production, such as burning fossil fuels. There’s a nifty graphic below that explains all this. But that doesn’t mean the little momentum that existed for new North American nuclear construction won’t be stemmed.

The still-present controversy roiling around Fukushima-Daiichi has implications for the larger debate about nuclear power, which, for now, is overwhelming the still larger question of the long-term global energy mix. It’s safe to acclaim “a clean energy future” a goal we all share, similar to how we pursue the “American dream,” and “life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.” But even timeworn phrases, including those enshrined in founding documents, mean different things to different people. The muddle that includes “renewables” and the debate over whether and/or when they’ll replace fossil fuels, as opaque as it is, manages to omit the most important, most difficult question:

How do we get to this “clean energy future”?

I’m going to step out like Indiana Jones in “The Last Crusade” and suggest the Canadian oil sands, as well as other of the Great White North’s copious resources, will play a big role in building the bridge that gets us beyond carbon.

The 2012 Budget and a 2011 Election

For markets, a spring Canadian election will be a waste of time and money. Barring the Canadian equivalent of an October Surprise that involves booze and women and/or boys, there will be no substantive change in policy direction resulting from a premature campaign.

But that’s what the three out-of-power parties are setting up, if their initial responses to the minority Conservative government’s fiscal 2011-12 federal budget are to be taken at face value. Each has rejected the budget and any possibility of negotiating a better package.

According to a Mar. 7 to Mar 9 poll of Canadians by Ipsos Reid for Postmedia News and Global Television, Prime Minister Stephen Harper and his Conservative Party have the support of 40 percent of voters, up a point from a month ago. Michael Ignatieff, leader of the lead opposition, and the Liberal Party are at 27 percent.

Although he’s ignored clear attempts by the Tories to craft a package that would entice him–the 2011-12 budget includes several provisions for pet Liberal funding causes–will Mr. Ignatieff want to flip the switch that gives the juice to Harper’s majority? My base-case scenario right now would include another minority Conservative government. The not unlikely outcome is that Mr. Harper finally achieves his long-sought majority; 40 percent is considered the minimum threshold at the national level but, as is the case in the United States, control boils down to riding-by-riding vote counts. (A Parliamentary “riding” is the American equivalent of a Congressional district.)

The good news for Mr. Ignatieff is that the Grits’ support is up two points from 25 percent a month ago. The really bad news is that the Tories inched up to 43 percent in Ontario, while the Grits held on at 32 percent after falling from 40 percent support from January to February.

People who follow Canadian politics will focus on seat-rich Ontario should Mr. Ignatieff proceed down this road to a spring election. That’s where Mr. Harper can make substantial gains on the relatively insubstantial 11 seats he needs to gain majority control of the House of Commons.

The Canadian dollar and the domestic stock market are leveraged to world growth generally, commodity prices specifically. A spring election won’t influence the long-term behavior of these variables. There may be short-term softening of the loonie, that more than likely, even in the immediate run-up to an election, will be a response to events in the Middle East North Africa region and/or Japan.

In fact relatively tranquil domestic politics–along with a stable financial system and copious natural resources–make Canada one of the world’s best investments.

We’ll have more on the budget–and more on any substantive threat to Mr. Harper’s reign and his plan to further trim the Canadian corporate tax rate to 15 percent–next week. Initial reaction to the plan from economists and the business community has been positive, with consensus support from both for its focus on deficit reduction as well as its targeted initiatives to encourage investment and job growth.

This Is Worth at Least a Thousand (Rational) Words

Without numbers this really is what it purports to combat: an emotional tug inspired by a critical situation. So here’s the data.

The Roundup

Canadian Edge Aggressive Portfolio Holding Yellow Media (TSX: YLO, OTC: YLWPF) is selling Trader Corp, which has about 160 publications and 22 websites that cover cars, general merchandise and employment, to UK-based private equity firm Apex Partners Funds for CAD745 million in cash. Yellow will use proceeds from the sale to reduce debt and for other general corporate needs.

We’ll have more on this deal and what it means for Yellow Media going forward in a Flash Alert next week.

We also received word late Friday that Canada’s minority government has received a vote of no confidence, an act by the three out-of-power parties–which, in aggregate, own a majority of the seats in Parliament–that topples Prime Minster Stephen Harper’s minority Conservative government.

The main opposition Liberals introduced the confidence motion on Friday; it called for the House of Commons to back an historic finding of contempt of parliament against the government. Last Monday a parliamentary committee upheld a recent finding of breach of parliamentary privilege against the government by the speaker of the House for not fully disclosing costs, including the price tag of anti-crime legislation. The New Democratic Party and the Bloc Quebecois joined the Grits to bring down the government by a 156-to-145 vote.

Mr. Harper has set the election, Canada’s fourth in seven years, for May 2. The vote is unlikely to alter the basic shape and course of the Canadian government. As we note above, we’ll have more on these issues next week.

Meanwhile, here are first-quarter 2011 earnings reporting dates for CE Portfolio Holdings.

Aggressive Holdings

• Acadian Timber Corp (TSX: ADN, OTC: ACAZF)–Apr. 28 (estimate)
• Ag Growth International (TSX: AFN, OTC: AGGZF)–May 13 (estimate)
• ARC Resources Ltd (TSX: ARX, OTC: AETUF)–May 5 (estimate)
• Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (TSX: CHE-U, OTC: CGIFF)–May 10 (estimate)
• Daylight Energy Ltd (TSX: DAY, OTC: DAYYF)–Mar. 2
• EnerCare Inc (TSX: ECI, OTC: CSUWF)–Apr. 29 (estimate)
• Enerplus Corp (TSX: ERF, NYSE: ERF)–May 13 (confirmed)
• Newalta Corp (TSX: NAL, OTC: NWLTF)–May 10 (estimate)
• Parkland Fuel Corp (TSX: PKI, OTC: PKIUF)–May 16 (estimate)
• Penn West Petroleum Ltd (TSX: PWT, NYSE: PWE)–May 5 (estimate)
• Perpetual Energy (TSX: PMT, OTC: PMGYF)–May 10 (estimate)
• Peyto Exploration & Development Corp (TSX: PEY, OTC: PEYUF)–May 12 (estimate)
• PHX Energy Services Corp (TSX: PHX, OTC: PHXHF)–May 6 (estimate)
• Provident Energy Ltd (TSX: PVE, NYSE: PVX)–May 13 (estimate)
• Vermillion Energy Inc (TSX: VET, OTC: VEMTF)–May 6 (estimate)
• Yellow Media Inc (TSX: YLO, OTC: YLWPF)–May 5 (tentative)

Conservative Holdings

• AltaGas Ltd (TSX: ALA, OTC: ATGFF)–Apr. 29 (estimate)
• Artis REIT (TSX: AX-U, OTC: ARESF)–May 12 (estimate)
• Atlantic Power Corp (TSX: ATP, NYSE: AT)–May 13 (estimate)
• Bird Construction Inc (TSX: BDT, OTC: BIRDF)–May 10 (estimate)
• Brookfield Renewable Power Fund (TSX: BRC-U, OTC: BRPFF)–May 13 (estimate)
• Canadian Apartment Properties REIT (TSX: CAR-U, OTC: CDPYF)–May 11 (estimate)
• Cineplex Inc (TSX: CGX, OTC: CPXGF)–May 13 (estimate)
• CML Healthcare Inc (TSX: CLC, OTC: CMHIF)–May 5 (estimate)
• Colabor Group (TSX: GCL, OTC: COLFF)–Apr. 28 (estimate)
• Davis + Henderson Income Corp (TSX: DH, OTC: DHIFF)–May. 4 (estimate)
• Extendicare REIT (TSX: EXE-U, OTC: EXETF)–May 6 (estimate)
• IBI Group Inc (TSX: IBG, OTC: IBIBF)–May 6 (estimate)
• Innergex Renewable Energy (TSX: INE, OTC: INGXF)–May 10 (estimate)
• Just Energy Group Inc (TSX: JE, OTC: JSTEF)–May 20 (estimate)
• Keyera Corp (TSX: KEY, OTC: KEYUF)–May 10 (confirmed)
• Macquarie Power & Infrastructure Corp (TSX: MPT, OTC: MCQPF)–May 11 (estimate)
• Northern Property REIT (TSX: NPR-U, OTC: NPRUF)–May 11 (estimate)
• Pembina Pipeline Corp (TSX: PPL, OTC: PBNPF)–May 6 (estimate)
• RioCan REIT (TSX: REI-U, OTC: RIOCF)–Apr. 29 (estimate)
• TransForce (TSX: TFI, OTC: TFIFF)–May 17 (confirmed)