Portfolio Update: Earnings Rx for Political Pain

Pass the aspirin. The daily political cacophony emanating from Washington, DC is painful. You need to stay calm and keep your eye on the numbers. First-quarter earnings growth should soothe frayed nerves.

Analysts estimate that so far, the year-over-year blended earnings growth rate for S&P 500 companies has come in at more than 25%. Before the earnings season got underway, the consensus expected lower growth of 18.3%.

The health care (96%) and technology (91%) sectors have the highest percentages of companies reporting earnings above estimates.

In the technology sector, Breakthrough Tech Profits holding Alphabet (NSDQ: GOOG) and Facebook (NSDQ: FB) have reported the largest upside differences between actual earnings per share (EPS) and estimated EPS ($13.33 versus $9.28 and $1.69 vs. $1.35, respectively).

This upward trajectory of earnings means that we have more room to run in technology stocks. Fueling this growth is the massive tax cut bill passed in December.

The tax cuts already are boosting merger and acquisition (M&A) activity in the technology sector. According to the latest figures released this week from Thomson Reuters, worldwide M&A totals $1.7 trillion, up 64% compared to year-to-date 2017. Technology, media and telecom M&A nearly tripled compared to a year ago, with $420.6 billion in deals announced.

Earnings Roundup

Let’s take a look at the latest earnings results of our holdings in the BTP portfolio, along with my updated advice:

  • Amphenol (NYSE: APH)

Amphenol reported adjusted first-quarter EPS of 83 cents compared to 69 cents for the same period a year ago. Revenue for the quarter came in at $1.867 billion compared to $1.560 billion for the same year-ago period.

The company’s board of directors approved a 21% increase in the dividend as well as a new three-year stock repurchase plan. The quarterly dividend will increase from 19 cents to 23 cents per share to be paid on July 10 to holders of record. The repurchase plan is authorized for up to $2 billion of the company’s common stock.

The electronics revolution continues to drive demand for this company’s electrical, electronic and fiber optic products. Electronics is a high-margin business with a broad range of applications across industries.

APH is a buy up to $95. 

  • BioTelemetry (NSDQ: BEAT)

Heart monitoring device maker BioTelemetry reported first-quarter earnings of $6 million, for adjusted EPS of 39 cents, beating consensus expectations of 25 cents.

BEAT posted revenue of $94.5 million in the period, the highest quarterly revenue in the company’s history. Revenue grew 11% on a year-over-year basis and represented the 23rd consecutive quarter of YoY revenue growth.

BioTelemetry is tapped into the booming health care market, which faces tailwinds as far as the eye can see. My calculations show that the company’s earnings growth should reach 9%-10% over the next five years, on an annualized basis.

I’m raising the buy limit on BEAT to $45. 

  • Cognex (NSDQ: CGNX)

The machine vision company’s adjusted EPS of 18 cents was flat year-over-year, but revenue grew 22% YoY to $169.6 million.

For me, here’s the key takeaway: CGNX’s research, development & engineering (RD&E) expenses in the first quarter increased 36% from the same quarter a year ago and 15% from the fourth quarter. The firm is making substantial investments in engineering resources for the development of new products.

CGNX is a buy up to $80.

  • Helmerich & Payne (NYSE: HP)

Helmerich & Payne reported a loss of $11.9 million in its fiscal second quarter. On a per-share basis, the oil and gas well-drilling contractor said it had a loss of 12 cents. Losses, adjusted for one-time gains and costs, were 5 cents per share.

The results met Wall Street expectations. HP’s revenue of $577.5 million in the period exceeded Wall Street’s forecast of $562.3 million.

Helmerich & Payne’s second quarter was tepid, but the firm has set the table for better growth in future quarters. Management expects revenue to spike due to increasing interest from clients in its idle equipment. The company also continues to modernize its rig fleet at a quickening pace. As oil and gas prices rise, HP should reap the benefits.

HP is a buy up to $80.

  • IPG Photonics (NSDQ: IPGP)

The manufacturer of high-powered lasers posted EPS of $1.93, beating analyst expectations of $1.80. Revenue came in at $359.9 million, topping expectations of $347 million.

The average analyst expectation is that IPGP’s YoY earnings growth will come in at 14.90% in the current fiscal year and 12.60% next year. I expect five-year earnings growth to hit at least 12%, on an annualized basis. IPGP dominates a fast-growing niche with advanced proprietary technology, just the sort of position that I like to see.

IPGP is a buy up to $250.

  • Western Digital (NSDQ: WDC)

This stock has been getting a bum rap. First the good news.

Western Digital reported fiscal third-quarter earnings of $61 million, for adjusted EPS of $3.63. The results topped Wall Street expectations of $3.31 in EPS.

The hard drive maker posted revenue of $5.01 billion in the period, exceeding forecasts of $4.94 billion. Revenue in the quarter grew 7.5% on a year-over-year basis. The company’s adjusted earnings reached $1.1 billion, a YoY increase of 10%.

Artificial intelligence, machine learning, and the Internet of Things continue to drive demand for the company’s HDD and NAND flash products.

So why are investors punishing the stock? The day after earnings were announced, WDC shares got clobbered. There’s nothing intrinsically wrong with the firm and its macroeconomic position.

I blame unwarranted pessimism recently expressed by analysts concerning the broader NAND memory space. Prices have been soft in recent months, but this should prove a temporary blip due to a mild capacity glut. Over the long haul, breakthrough technologies will drive robust demand.

Western Digital’s key products include hard disk drives and solid-state drives for a wide variety of products. WDC is positioned in the exploding field of cloud storage, a sweet spot for tech investors. The spread of virtual reality/augmented reality applications and 3D imaging should also drive long-term growth for WDC.

WDC is a compelling value right now. The firm’s forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is only 6.0, compared to 16.9 for the S&P 500. WDC’s direct peer Seagate Technology (NSDQ: STX) sports a much higher forward P/E of 11.2, even though I don’t view STX as competitively stronger than WDC.

Wall Street expects WDC to generate five-year earnings growth of 31%, on an annualized basis. That compares to Seagate’s expected five-year growth of 8.41%.

You’d be hard pressed to find a better bargain right now than Western Digital.

WDC is a buy up to $103.

John Persinos is chief investment strategist of Breakthrough Tech Profits.

 

 

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