We’ve ventured halfway around the world the last couple weeks to bring you a view of what’s happening in Egypt and the Middle East and how it might impact North America. Although Egypt’s connection to the international oil market it tenuous, its vital role in keeping an equally weak regional peace means the events since Jan. 25 in Cairo’s Tahrir Square reverberated around the world.

The uncertainty and fear of what may ensue from an Egyptian revolution played havoc with Asia markets, represented by the Hang Seng Index, which dove as much as 7 percent from a 2011 high established Jan. 19 during the turmoil before rebounding following President Hosni Mubarak’s resignation. Market action in North America has been, if anything, gravity defying, as the S&P 500 achieved the quickest double off a cycle low this week.

The broader consequences of Egypt’s liberation are now rippling through Iran, where “hundreds of thousands” are said to have marched in Tehran. Antigovernment resistance is also on the rise in Libya, Bahrain and Yemen. In the long term the price of oil will be determined by supply and demand. In the short term traders are reacting to provocations such as Iran’s request for two if its naval vessels to transit the Suez Canal en route, potentially, to Syria.

This is reflected in the price of Brent Crude, which has opened up an historically wide spread above West Texas Intermediate, the price most often quoted in the US financial press. If you look at Brent, we already have USD100 oil. Some of the difference is explained by the fact that abundant Canadian oil sands crude is reaching the Cushing, Oklahoma, terminal where the WTI price is set. There’s also an historic glut of crude awaiting transport to processing terminals from Cushing, which is holding down the quoted price.

A strong price for oil is, of course, bullish for the Canadian dollar and assets priced in that currency. The loonie is firmly above parity with its US counterpart, and factors other than the price of oil conspire to keep it on the climb for the near future.

Canada’s fiscal position is better than all of its G-7 peers, it’s the beneficiary of interest-rate differentials, particularly with the US, that stand to widen substantially, perhaps as early as this spring, and it looks good right now for investors looking to cycle out of similarly commodity-exposed currencies such as the New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar.

The Great White North appears to be an oasis amid the political haze rising up from south of its border as well as halfway around the world.

Majority at Last?

Prime Minister Stephen Harper is on the cusp of winning his long-sought majority–provided, that is, that an election can be sprung before the one scheduled for October 2012.

An Ipsos-Reid poll conducted Feb. 8-10 for Canada’s National Post found support for Stephen Harper’s Conservative Party at 39 percent, up five points just since a similar poll at the end of January and a sign the prime minister is closer than ever to his long-coveted majority.

The Liberal Party, led by Michael Ignatieff, is down four points since the last survey to 25 percent, while Jack Layton’s New Democratic Party (NDP) has the support of 18 percent of Canadians, a two-point improvement from the last result. Elizabeth May and the Green Party are stuck on 10 percent. The provincial Bloc Quebecois has 9 percent national support but is losing ground in Quebec.

According to Ipsos Reid the Tories stand at 42 percent in the swing province of Ontario, a six-point improvement since January. Liberal support is down eight points to 32 percent; the NDP is unchanged at 15 percent, while the Greens gained three points to 11 percent.

The Bloc Quebecois is at 37 percent in its home province, while the Tories lead the Liberals, 21 percent to 17 percent, for the crucial runner-up spot. The NDP is at 15 percent in Quebec, the Greens 9 percent. Atlantic Canada supports the Tories by 38 percent to 31 percent for the Liberals, 18 percent for the NDP and 13 percent for the Greens.

The Conservatives are in complete command in western Canada. The Tories are at 39 percent in British Columbia, while the NDP is No. 2 there at 30 percent. The Liberals trail badly at 23 percent, and the Greens sit just below double digits at 9 percent. The Tories are well in front in their spiritual homeland, Alberta, with 65 percent. The Liberals register 16 percent support, the NDP 14 percent and the Greens 6 percent. The Tories are at 43 percent in Saskatchewan/ Manitoba, leading the Liberals (24 percent), the NDP (23 percent) and the Greens (9 percent).

Ipsos Reid’s Darrell Bricker told the National Post that 42 percent is the approximate threshold Harper and the Tories will have to cross before their majority can be realized.

The prime minister has said his government will table a budge in March that least one of the three main opposition parties can support. The Conservatives, with 143 seats in the House of Commons, need only 11 votes, which any of the Liberals, NDP or Bloc Quebecois can supply.

At this point in the game, given the relative weakness of his main opposition, it’s fair to move the question from “when will Mr. Harper command a majority?” to “what’s taking him so long?”

An Assange on His Shoulder?

I think Julian Assange is long oil. It’s one way to explain The UK Guardian’s publication of four secret cables on the topic of Saudi Arabian oil, just as China’s rate hike and Egypt’s eased tension threatened to bring the per barrel price of crude off its seemingly inexorable climb well into triple digits.

Or maybe he works for Mr. Harper, who pressed President Obama on TransCanada Corp’s (TSX: TRP, NYSE: TRP) Keystone XL project during an early February visit to Washington, DC. High-level diplomatic cables that lend support to the theory of “peak oil” can only bolster the case for developing sources of oil located somewhere other than Saudi Arabia.

(And access to data of this sort means it would be only too easy for the prime minister to get information sufficient preserve his power, unique for the head of what remains a minority government.)

The Roundup

Reuters reports today that China, through its “national champions” PetroChina, Sinopec and CNOOC, is stepping up efforts to acquire unconventional energy assets. The report names, among others, Suncor Energy (TSX: SU, NYSE: SU), Cenovus Energy (TSX: CVE, NYSE: CVE), Nexen (TSX: NXY, NYSE: NXY), covered in How They Rate’s Oil and Gas section, and SeaDrill (NYSE: SDRL), recommended by our colleague Elliott Gue in Personal Finance and The Energy Strategist.

The Reuters story, sourcing Wall Street research and analysts, emphasizes the desire of the Chinese to connect with said firms to exploit their knowledge of tight gas and coalbed methane extraction, shale gas, oil sands and deepwater reserves with an eye on developing similar resources found in and near the Middle Kingdom.

It names another CE-covered Oil and Gas name, EnCana (TSX: ECA, NYSE: ECA), which last week announced a USD5.4 billion deal with PetroChina, the largest Chinese investment to date in a foreign natural gas asset.

Suncor reported better-than-forecast fourth-quarter and full-year 2010 results, as margins improved on rising crude prices and the company produced more than anticipated from its oil sands properties. Cash flow from operations, a key measure of an oil-and-gas producer’s ability to fund future growth, nearly doubled to CAD2.14 billion in the quarter from CAD1.13 billion a year ago on increased volumes and higher realized prices.

We rate Suncor Energy a buy up to USD35, but it’s currently trading around USD45, near an all-time high.

Cenovus, which was spun off from EnCana in late 2009 to unlock the value of the oil assets with which it was endowed, highlighted a going-forward factor in its fourth-quarter and full-year results conference call that will likely impact all unconventional producers–oil and gas–in 2011: Competition for services has is driving up costs, in Cenovus’ case an estimated 3 to 5 percent this year.

Cenovus reported today that operating profit fell 17 percent to CAD140 million in the fourth quarter. The company spent CAD706 million on capital investment in the quarter, a 39 percent increase. The company is expanding its Christina Lake and Foster Creek in-situ projects with additional well pads. Oil sands production on the company’s properties will continue to expand “for years.” Management noted as well that efforts to reduce chemical use and production downtime would offset increases in other areas such as labor costs.

 CEO Brian Ferguson said that Cenovus is “seeing a lot of interest” in possibly swapping assets with another oil sands operator, forming a joint venture, farming-out assets or selling properties, Management, according to Mr. Ferguson, wants a deal done this year. Cenovus Energy is a buy up to USD30; it’s trading just below USD37 as of late Friday.

Nexen reported fourth-quarter earnings of CAD220 million (CAD0.42 per share), down from CAD259 million (CAD0.50 per share) from a year ago on reduced production due to downtime at a North Sea project, lower natural gas production in Yemen and the sale of its Canadian heavy oil properties. Cash flow for the quarter was off 34 percent to CAD549 million from CAD836 million.

Annual cash flow of CAD2.1 billion was down from CAD2.2 billion a year ago. Net income for 2010 was CAD1.2 billion, more than double 2009’s CAD536 million. Annual production after royalties was 220,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, a 7 percent increase over 2009. Nexen reduced net debt by CAD1.5 billion, or more than 25 percent, and will pay down another CAD500 million in early February with proceeds from the disposition of its 67 percent stake in chemical company Canexus Income Fund (TSX: CUS-U, OTC: CXUSF).

During 2010 Nexen increased annual after royalties production by 7 percent, after adjusting for the heavy oil sale and added 101 million barrels of oil equivalent of proved reserves from its CAD2.5 billion oil and gas capital investment program. Nexen is trading just above (USD25.50) our buy target of USD25.

Here’s than up-to-date list estimated (except where indicated) earnings announcement intentions for Canadian Edge Portfolio Holdings. We’ll have a Flash Alert early next week detailing what happened during the last three months of 2010 and the full year for those companies that have announced.

Aggressive Holdings

• Ag Growth International (TSX: AFN, OTC: AGGZF)–Mar. 14 (confirmed)
• ARC Resources Ltd (TSX: ARX, OTC: AETUF)–Feb. 10 (announced)
• Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (TSX: CHE-U, OTC: CGIFF)–Feb. 23 (confirmed)
• Daylight Energy Ltd (TSX: DAY, OTC: DAYYF)–Mar. 2
• EnerCare Inc (TSX: ECI, OTC: CSUWF)–Feb. 23 (confirmed)
• Enerplus Corp (TSX: ERF, NYSE: ERF)–Feb. 25 (confirmed)
• Newalta Corp (TSX: NAL, OTC: NWLTF)–Mar. 2
• Parkland Fuel Corp (TSX: PKI, OTC: PKIUF)–Mar. 2
• Penn West Petroleum Ltd (TSX: PWT, NYSE: PWE)–Feb. 18 (announced)
• Perpetual Energy (TSX: PMT, OTC: PMGYF)–Mar. 8 (confirmed)
• Peyto Exploration & Development Corp (TSX: PEY, OTC: PEYUF)–Mar. 9 (confirmed)
• PHX Energy Services Corp (TSX: PHX, OTC: PHXHF)–Mar. 3
• Provident Energy Ltd (TSX: PVE, NYSE: PVX)–Mar. 9 (confirmed)
• Vermillion Energy Inc (TSX: VET, OTC: VEMTF)–Feb. 28 (confirmed)
• Yellow Media Inc (TSX: YLO, OTC: YLWPF)–Feb. 10 (announced)

Conservative Holdings

• AltaGas Ltd (TSX: ALA, OTC: ATGFF)–Feb. 24 (confirmed)
• Artis REIT (TSX: AX-U, OTC: ARESF)–Mar. 2 (confirmed)
• Atlantic Power Corp (TSX: ATP, NYSE: AT)–Mar. 29
• Bird Construction Inc (TSX: BDT, OTC: BIRDF)–Mar. 11
• Brookfield Renewable Power Fund (TSX: BRC-U, OTC: BRPFF)–Feb. 16 (announced)
• Canadian Apartment Properties REIT (TSX: CAR-U, OTC: CDPYF)–Feb. 22 (confirmed)
• Cineplex Inc (TSX: CGX, OTC: CPXGF)–Feb. 10 (announced)
• CML Healthcare Inc (TSX: CLC, OTC: CMHIF)–Mar. 4 (confirmed)
• Colabor Group (TSX: GCL, OTC: COLFF)–Feb. 24
• Davis + Henderson Income Corp (TSX: DH, OTC: DHIFF)–Mar. 8 (confirmed)
• IBI Group Inc (TSX: IBG, OTC: IBIBF)–Mar. 17
• Innergex Renewable Energy (TSX: INE, OTC: INGXF)–Mar. 23 (confirmed)
• Just Energy Group Inc (TSX: JE, OTC: JSTEF)–Feb. 10 (announced)
• Keyera Corp (TSX: KEY, OTC: KEYUF)–Feb. 17 (confirmed)
• Macquarie Power & Infrastructure Corp (TSX: MPT-U, OTC: MCQPF)–Mar. 10 (confirmed)
• Northern Property REIT (TSX: NPR-U, OTC: NPRUF)–Mar. 9 (confirmed)
• Pembina Pipeline Corp (TSX: PPL, OTC: PBNPF)–Mar. 3
• RioCan REIT (TSX: REI-U, OTC: RIOCF)–Feb. 28 (confirmed)
• TransForce (TSX: TFI, OTC: TFIFF)–Mar. 2, 2011 (confirmed)