Editor’s Note: Effective immediately, Maple Leaf Memo will be known in this space as Canadian Edge Weekly, to better reflect its close association with Canadian Edge.

You may still see the Maple Leaf Memo name floating around the KCI universe; that’ll be the “free” version of what you read, the “above the fold” discussion of themes and issues relevant to investing generally and in Canada particularly. What the free version of MLM doesn’t include–what makes this CE Weekly–is the “below the fold” content: The Roundup. That’s where we provide between-issue updates on Portfolio Holdings, including synopses of quarterly and annual earnings reports, new debt and/or equity issuance, mergers, acquisitions, and any other news or developments that may impact dividends and share prices. We also cover members of the How They Rate coverage universe in The Roundup; it’s often the proving ground where future Portfolio Holdings show their quality.

This change is completely superficial for you–the content you’ve enjoyed under the Maple Leaf Memo banner will stay the same under the name Canadian Edge Weekly.

No sooner had last week’s edition of MLM CE Weekly been published than tensions in Egypt reached a critical point. Users reported widespread Internet and mobile phone service disruptions. Units of “an elite special counterterrorism force” were reportedly deployed in preparation for protest gatherings to take place following Friday prayers. President Hosni Mubarak dismissed his government.

Egyptians–millions of them–were not persuaded by Mr. Mubarak’s sacking of his government and naming of his first vice president (who happens to be a former chief of Egyptian intelligence), nor have they buckled since he declared he wouldn’t stand for re-election. Mr. Mubarak’s time in power is rapidly nearing its end.

These 10 days, if they haven’t quite shaken the world, illustrate how delicate is the political balance in the Middle East-North Africa (MENA), a region of seemingly eternal promise but equally persistent strife that’s yet to come under the controlling influence of any one global power.

What’s happening in Egypt, a relatively moderate influence in a radicalized environment, is positive if you’re a fan of humanity. Unfortunately, if you play your game based on honorable intentions about basic rights of self-determination you’re almost certain to suffer because of one who plays to win. It’s a lesson the Americans and the British endured in the aftermath of World War II. Liberal democracies with international interests are forced constantly to make choices between what’s good for them versus what’s good for local populations. It’s why a guy like Mubarak can basically run a dictatorship for three decades, and get rich doing it.

A destabilized Egypt is a threat to Israel, not directly but because of the choices the Middle East’s lone democracy will have to make as it considers a new Egyptian regime. For more than 30 years, basically the entire Mubarak presidency, Israel has had the comfort of relative peace with Egypt, stitched together beginning in 1979 at Camp David. It could focus on lesser military powers such as Syria and Lebanon and rest easier with its western border secure. Right now the outcome–apart from the fact of Mubarak’s departure, which seems inevitable at this point–is unpredictable. Israel no longer has certainty on the critical southwestern border it shares with Egypt.

We note, at the top, last week’s MLM/CEW because of the point we made then about the Canadian oil sands and how crucial that resource is to North American energy security:

Meanwhile, the world’s supply of easily accessible crude is clearly on the wane. The Canadian oil sands belong to a friendly neighbor with whom we already share in the world’s biggest bilateral trade relationship. A concerted effort to develop alternatives such as nuclear, biomass, solar and wind must be complemented by serious capital investment in oil sands infrastructure if the 21st century American dream of simultaneously reducing greenhouse gas emissions and dependence on hostile countries for energy supplies is to be realized.

Now, the Land of the Pharaohs is not hostile to the US (under the current regime), nor is it rich in oil. But there’s a reason Egypt–the No. 2 military power in the MENA–receives an estimated USD1.3 billion in military aid from the US on an annual basis: It’s an essential outlay to help stabilize a country that’s home to critical energy infrastructure–including the Suez Canal and the Sumed Pipeline–and is a counterweight to more radical nations in the region. The Pentagon has said these funds will continue to flow, despite the current uncertainty.

Predictably, the price of crude has spiked since the tension in Egypt ratcheted up; about a million barrels a day transit the Suez Canal each way, while the 200-mile, Red Sea-to-the-Mediterranean Sumed Pipeline is capable of carrying 2.5 million barrels a day. The Egyptian military has been dispatched to protect it. Although analysts have downplayed the threat to the global energy market the Egyptian uprising represents, the per barrel price for at least one type of crude, Brent, has surpassed USD100. It’s a psychological barrier, yes, but it has to be crossed on the way to levels that will eventually threaten US consumers, for example, who are just now showing signs of life after nearly suffocating under excessive debt.

What’s not as easy to understand as these developments, however, is the reaction, at least this week of investors to what’s going on in Egypt. Market Vectors Egypt Index ETF (NYSE: EGPT), which traded above USD20 in mid-January, scraped USD16 last Friday. It’s bounced up to USD17.90 as of this Thursday’s close. Market Vectors Africa (NYSE: AFK), meanwhile, is showing a similar bounce. As distasteful as it might seem, events in Egypt are now perceived as a buying opportunity, manifestation in the market of the realism that governs geopolitics. If the thought of profiting amid the turmoil makes you uncomfortable, consider, first, Thomas Jefferson’s suggestion that a little revolution every now and then is a good thing, second, that Egyptians may finally be on the cusp of electing (for real) a leader of their choosing, and, third, that Yiannis Mostrous, Elliott Gue and I make a compelling case for allocating assets to Africa in The Rise of the State: Profitable Investing and Geopolitics in the 21st Century, our September 2010 book published by FT Press. And because it can’t be about self interest all the time, here’s an excerpt from the relevant chapter, “Rumble in the Jungle,” in which China, as it seems to in nearly every economic story today, plays a prominent role:

According to the Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic (AICD), among households in sub-Saharan Africa 36 percent are without an improved water source, 73 percent are without improved sanitation, 37 percent are without electricity, and only 5 percent     have a telephone. It comes then as no surprise that China’s developmental approach, coupled with the cancellation of USD1.36 billion of African countries’ debt nearly a decade ago and another USD1.3 billion in 2007, has become such a success. The arrangement isn’t perfect, as the Chinese, new to this game, often encounter political and social problems that they either hadn’t considered in advance or, had they considered, preferred to ignore. Nevertheless, there are more positive things taking place in Africa’s infrastructure development these days than at any time in recent memory. If the present trajectory is maintained and Africa enters a period of legitimate, sustainable growth, China’s positive role here will resonate around the world. Its efforts, however, are already being recognized; more countries are lining up to work with China than are complaining about its ascendency. The World Bank’s pragmatic President Robert Zoellick, in a visit to Beijing in 2009, made it clear that the institution he headed would welcome China’s SWF investment in its asset management company. He also noted that he was hopeful that Chinese companies would start investing in the development of Africa’s manufacturing capacity as well.

There are three main ways through which China is engaged economically with Africa. The first is trade, which reached USD107 billion in 2008. China funneled USD5.5 billion in FDI, the second method, to Africa in 2008. China’s official development assistance (ODA) program with Africa, used mainly to secure resource swaps, accounts for more than two times investment flows. The terms of China’s ODA follow principles established during then-Premier Zhou Enlai’s visit to Africa in the early 1960s: no conditions or demand for privileges can be attached to ODA; China provides ODA in the form of grants, interest-free or low-interest loans; and repayment will be rescheduled if necessary. China’s aid program also includes technical assistance, with an emphasis on agricultural technology and training in Chinese institutions. China’s overall ODA program has focused on social and humanitarian projects, such as establishing hospitals, schools, low-cost housing, sport venues, and library and government buildings, and often is delivered in kind. ODA has also been used for infrastructure construction and agricultural development. Where infrastructure is concerned most Chinese funds are channeled to power-generation projects and railways. According to a study by the World Bank

By the end of 2007, China was providing at least USD3.3 billion toward the construction of 10 major hydropower projects amounting to more than 6,000 megawatts (MW) of installed capacity. If completed, these schemes would increase the total available hydropower generation capacity in sub-Saharan Africa by around 30 percent…

…China has made a major comeback in the rail sector, with financing commitments on the order of USD4 billion for this sector. They include rehabilitation of more than 1,350 kilometers of existing railway lines and the construction of more than 1,600 kilometers of new railroad. To put this in perspective, the entire African railroad network amounts to around 50,000 kilometers.

The hunt for natural resources is the main reason for China’s involvement in Africa, where China was a non-entity 15 years ago. Eighty percent of the more than USD22 billion worth of natural resources that it imports from Africa is oil, while timber and minerals cover the rest.

My colleague and co-author Yiannis Mostrous provides comprehensive coverage of China and other emerging markets and the impact they exert on the global economy in his Global Investment Strategist. It’s a great way to keep up with geopolitical, in a context that’ll help you preserve and build wealth over time.

Yiannis, Elliot and I–along with Roger Conrad, Benjamin Shepherd and Jim Fink–will be discussing The Rise of the State and other issues of the day at the second annual KCI Wealth Summit, an exclusive gathering of high net worth, self-directed investors taking place Apr. 1-2 at The Mandarin Oriental Hotel in Las Vegas.

The Roundup

Canadian Oil Sands Ltd (TSX: COS, OTC: COSWF), reporting for the first time as a converted corporation, offered a positive report based on cautious signs of progress overcoming its biggest problem as the share price lagged in 2010: waning investor confidence in Syncrude’s ability to ever begin to rein in the exorbitant costs of producing synthetic crude from bitumen.

Shares of Canadian Oil Sands, the sole asset of which is a 36.7 percent interest in the Syncrude joint venture, have surged since Jan. 25, the “day of rage” that superseded what was an Egyptian national holiday honoring police officers and set off what may turn out to be a regime-changing uprising in an extremely sensitive part of the world. Generally speaking higher oil prices are good for Canadian Oil Sands. But the key for this company is whether it can establish some operational consistency at its cokers and finally begin to make meaningful progress in its effort to bring down costs and simultaneously approach the promise of 500,0000 barrels per day (bpd) of production by 2020. According to CEO Marcel Coutou, Syncrude averaged “more than 350,000 barrels per day” during November and December of 2010. “Nameplate” capacity is 375,000 bpd.

Operating costs for the year were CAD36.76 per barrel, up from CAD35.29 in 2009. A 24 percent annual CAPEX increase should, over the long term, reduce mining costs, which were the source of the increase maintenance expenditures in 2010.

Cash flow–growth of which is critical for any new projects that will help Syncrude meet its production potential–fell 32 percent to CAD222 million (CAD0.46 per share) from CAD328 million (CAD0.68 per unit) in the fourth quarter of 2009 as expenses rose. Most of these expenses were tied to unexpectedly long turnaround times for repairs.

Cash flow for the year, however, was up 123 percent, as production and realized prices rose in response to a reviving global economy. Oil Sands earned CAD311 million (CAD0.64 per share) in the fourth quarter, up from CAD96 million (CAD0.20 per unit) a year ago. Revenue was up 4.6 percent to CAD936 million.

Syncrude expects to produce 110 million barrels (301,400 bpd) in 2011, which projects to 40.4 million barrels (110,700 bpd) to Canadian Oil Sands. Management forecast CAD927 million for capital costs, CAD622 million for major projects, CAD305 million for scheduled upkeep of existing equipment. That’s more than Bay Street anticipated, but the Egyptian mini-shock, demonstrating as it does the greater relative impact a sudden price rise has for high-cost operators such as Syncrude, seems to have soothed at least some worries; the stock has received one upgrade in the past week, to “market perform,” while overall response to fourth-quarter and full-year 2010 numbers was similarly tepid. The potential for Canadian Oil Sands right now is that it reverts to its prior pattern of trading with the price of oil. Events have pulled it higher in the short term; performance will make it a sound long-term investment. Canadian Oil Sands Ltd is a buy when it comes back to USD28 or below.

Here’s the rundown of estimated (except where indicated) earnings announcement dates for Canadian Edge Portfolio Holdings.

Aggressive Holdings

• Ag Growth International (TSX: AFN, OTC: AGGZF)–Mar. 14
• ARC Resources Ltd (TSX: ARX, OTC: AETUF)–Feb. 9
• Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (TSX: CHE-U, OTC: CGIFF)–Feb. 24
• Daylight Energy Ltd (TSX: DAY, OTC: DAYYF)–Mar. 2
• EnerCare Inc (TSX: ECI, OTC: CSUWF)–Mar. 1
• Enerplus Corp (TSX: ERF, NYSE: ERF)–Feb. 25 (confirmed)
• Newalta Corp (TSX: NAL, OTC: NWLTF)–Mar. 2
• Parkland Fuel Corp (TSX: PKI, OTC: PKIUF)–Mar. 2
• Penn West Petroleum Ltd (TSX: PWT, NYSE: PWE)–Feb. 17
• Perpetual Energy (TSX: PMT, OTC: PMGYF)–Mar. 8 (confirmed)
• Peyto Exploration & Development Corp (TSX: PEY, OTC: PEYUF)–Mar. 9 (confirmed)
• PHX Energy Services Corp (TSX: PHX, OTC: PHXHF)–Mar. 3
• Provident Energy Ltd (TSX: PVE, NYSE: PVX)–Mar. 9 (confirmed)
• Vermillion Energy Inc (TSX: VET, OTC: VEMTF)–Mar. 3
• Yellow Media Inc (TSX: YLO, OTC: YLWPF)–Feb. 10 (confirmed)

Conservative Holdings

• AltaGas Ltd (TSX: ALA, OTC: ATGFF)–Feb. 23, 2011
• Artis REIT (TSX: AX-U, OTC: ARESF)–Mar. 2, 2011 (confirmed)
• Atlantic Power Corp (TSX: ATP, NYSE: AT)–Mar. 29, 2011
• Bird Construction Inc (TSX: BDT, OTC: BIRDF)–Mar. 11, 2011
• Brookfield Renewable Power Fund (TSX: BRC-U, OTC: BRPFF)–Feb. 16 (confirmed)
• Canadian Apartment Properties REIT (TSX: CAR-U, OTC: CDPYF)–Feb. 22 (confirmed)
• Cineplex Inc (TSX: CGX, OTC: CPXGF)–Feb. 10 (confirmed)
• CML Healthcare Inc (TSX: CLC, OTC: CMHIF)–Mar. 4
• Colabor Group (TSX: GCL, OTC: COLFF)–Feb. 24
• Davis + Henderson Income Corp (TSX: DH, OTC: DHIFF)–Mar. 2
• IBI Group Inc (TSX: IBG, OTC: IBIBF)–Mar. 17
• Innergex Renewable Energy (TSX: INE, OTC: INGXF)–Mar. 23 (confirmed)
• Just Energy Group Inc (TSX: JE, OTC: JSTEF)–Feb. 10
• Keyera Corp (TSX: KEY, OTC: KEYUF)–Feb. 18
• Macquarie Power & Infrastructure Corp (TSX: MPT, OTC: MCQPF)–Mar. 10 (confirmed)
• Northern Property REIT (TSX: NPR-U, OTC: NPRUF)–Mar. 9 (confirmed)
• Pembina Pipeline Corp (TSX: PPL, OTC: PBNPF)–Mar. 3, 2011
• RioCan REIT (TSX: REI-U, OTC: RIOCF)–Feb. 28 (confirmed)
• TransForce (TSX: TFI, OTC: TFIFF)–Mar. 2, 2011 (confirmed)