Stephen Harper’s Next Test

Lester Pearson, who previously won the Nobel Peace Prize for defusing the 1956 Suez Crisis, was Prime Minister of Canada atop two back-to-back minority governments following elections in 1963 and 1965. He served a total of four years, 258 days, during which time his minority government introduced universal health care, student loans, the Canada Pension Plan and the current Canadian flag.

Though he’s only about 100 days short of eclipsing his overall prime ministry service, likewise covering two minority governments, to suggest Stephen Harper is in a class with Pearson is ridiculous. This isn’t Cal Ripken and Lou Gehrig. And for many Americans the Harper question was settled Oct. 31, 2006, when his finance minister, Jim Flaherty, announced a government plant to tax income trusts, reversing a campaign promise and torching USD35 billion of investor wealth.

At the same time, and even considering the fact that the largest opposition party can’t find a competent leader, discounting, too, the fact that as Americans the view from down here of Canadian politics almost can’t help but be lovely, the guy who owns the record for leading the longest-standing minority government “from return of writs to dissolution” (between elections) is underrated.

Obscured by the emotion that marked the Halloween Massacre was a lifeline in the form of the Tax Fairness Plan’s four-year sunset period–the first sign of what might be described as Harper’s extremely subtle genius. This set the stage for income and royalty trusts to transition into a new class of high-dividend-paying corporations. The market’s hunger for yield continues unabated; the companies we recommend in Canadian Edge still have the assets and the experience to support market-beating payouts for years to come.

Of course we’d rather the tax-advantages never have been removed. (And a part of us will savor Harper’s eventual downfall, whenever it comes.) But we’ll continue to enjoy the high dividends still to be found in Canada.

Harper’s government also did the obvious thing and passed a sensible stimulus package in 2009. This was a true use of Keynesian tools, as Canada’s budget was balanced, and had been for the 10 years leading into the crisis. It was paying down its federal debt. In short, the country had the wherewithal to juice aggregate demand in place of crippled consumers and business without jeopardizing the long-term health of the economy.

That’s not to mention the fact that Canada hasn’t suffered the large-scale wealth deflation brought on by a collapsing real estate market. This is the result of healthy relations–for the governed, the governors and the people–between Canada’s Big Five banks and their regulators, which Harper hasn’t managed to foul up. And, though Canadians, like their developed-world peers, are saddled with too much debt, the employment picture up north is, by some measures, three percentage points better than it is in the US. Whether it’s his doing or not, Canada’s prime minister, like the US president, will be measured on Election Day according to unemployment.

On the international front, Harper, after early missteps, has since improved Canada’s position relative to China and other emerging Asian economies at a critical time for its traditional trading partners. The global demand profiles for crude oil and other key commodities that Canada holds in abundance–such as potash–are shifting eastward. But a 2007 meeting with the Dalai Lama Chinese officials described as “disgusting” and a public remonstration over Tibet in 2008 seem to be fading as symbols of the prime minister’s relations with the Middle Kingdom.

Of course, the situation as he made it couldn’t have gotten much worse. But again, Harper has tacked in recent years, and Canadian businesses such as miner Teck Resources (TSX: TCK.B, NYSE: TCK) and oil and gas producer Penn West Energy Trust (TSX: PWT-U, NYSE: PWE) are enjoying significant infusions of capital from Chinese sources such as sovereign wealth fund (SWF) China Investment Corp (CIC). These investments are unlocking resources that, in Penn West’s case, likely wouldn’t have been developed for years.

Harper’s ability to turn present difficulties into his long-coveted majority government could rest on how he handles the bidding for Potash Corp of Saskatchewan (TSX: POT, NYSE: POT). In fact what the minority government does on this issue could resonate for decades, regardless of whether what happens in Saskatchewan can be made to matter, at an electoral level, in Ontario and Quebec.

Saskatchewan’s goal is to get the highest price for its potash while extending the life of the resource for as long as possible. BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP), whose USD39 billion bid is the only bid on the table, has said it would withdraw from the Canada-based potash marketing cartel Canpotex, which currently includes Potash Corp, The Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS) and Agrium (TSX: AGU, NYSE: AGU). Its plans likely include boosting production, driving down price and boosting volumes.

The Chinese government recently endorsed a possible bid by state-owned entity (SOE) Sinochem (Shanghai: 600500); Sinochem has also approached Singaporean SWF Temasek Holdings about a combined effort. CIC, the most active and influential SWF in the world since the end of the Great Recession, is said to already be involved with Sinochem’s possible bid. The Chinese, who purchase 7 percent of their supply from Potash Corp, are concerned about what BHP’s ownership would mean for prices and access in the future.

The provincial government in Saskatchewan has no formal authority to approve or reject the deal; the decisions will come from Ottawa, though the feelings of the local voters will certainly come into play. Saskatchewan Energy and Resources Minister Bill Boyd has retained the Conference Board of Canada “to conduct an independent analysis” of BHP’s offer.

Harper to this point has been noncommittal, though Industry Minister Tony Clement, in the middle of a five-day trip to the Middle Kingdom, said a foreign takeover bid for Potash Corp would be measured by an existing two-prong test under the Investment Canada Act that weighs the potential deal’s “net benefit” to the country and national security concerns. Clement said additional scrutiny would be given to a bid involving sovereign interests to “ensure they are acting in a way that is consistent with a market-driven economy.”

If Harper seizes the Potash Corp ownership issue as a new opportunity to galvanize the public, that will naturally cause some consternation among private foreign companies that want to partake–rather, own–some of Canada’s natural resource bounty. The risk of offending BHP Billiton is can’t be less than the potential long-term damage that might be done if a rumored bid that includes Sinochem and CIC is rejected. It’s possible that the Chinese are involved only to keep the asset out of BHP’s hands.

The price of Potash Corp stock is directly related to the price of the potash produced from its major mine in Saskatchewan; Potash Corp owns the mine but the people of Saskatchewan own the potash. Potash Corp CEO Bill Doyle clearly wants a bidding war–he could pocket more than USD400 million if a deal goes through at or above BHP’s current USD130 per share bid–as do the shareholders in whose interest he is compelled by fiduciary duty to act.

One of the defining characteristics of Canada vis a vis other resource-blessed countries is that its governments have been able to competently manage the bounty for the benefit of the many. Canada’s economy rises and falls with prices for things like crude oil. Saskatchewan derived USD9.5 billion in royalty and tax revenue from potash in 2009, a piddling compared to the USD44 billion of revenue BHP reported last year or the USD44.4 billion Sinochem generated. But to Saskatchewan’s 1.2 million taxpayers the USD9.5 billion means a lot. From a political perspective, this is a no-brainer for Harper, right in his wheelhouse.

  Popular history–at least outside the Great White North–has a way of treating Canadians this way, understating or outright ignoring their contributions to the larger cause. It’s easy to forget, for example, that Canadians made the furthest progress inland on D-Day, or that from their ranks came the troops that executed the reckless Dieppe Raid in 1942, which lay bare what a combined amphibious assault on The Continent would take. Much less the evidence of baseball’s early origins in Canada, which date to at least 1838.

Of course Harper’s accomplishments are not on these scales. He’s enjoyed the benefits of fiscal discipline exercised by governments in power long before he rose up from Alberta. He’s also enjoyed relatively easy competition, as the Liberals–long considered by many, particularly themselves, Canada’s “natural governing party”–have been unable to muster a leader worthy of entering the ring with him.

But they say 90 percent of life is just showing up. Judging by Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s longevity and record of, at the very least, not screwing it up for Canada, maybe more politicians should try this approach.

The Roundup

Aggressive Holding Provident Energy Trust (TSX: PVE-U, NYSE: PVX) announced that Brent Heagy, formerly chief financial officer (CFO) for Zargon Energy Trust (TSX: ZAR-U, OTC: ZARFF), will join the company as senior vice president, finance, and CFO on Oct. 1. Provident Energy Trust is a buy up to USD8.

Here are tentative third-quarter earnings announcement dates for the Canadian Edge Portfolio Aggressive Holdings:

  • Ag Growth International (TSX: AFN, OTC: AGGZF)–Nov. 12
  • ARC Energy Trust (TSX: AET-U, OTC: AETUF)–Nov. 1 (confirmed)
  • Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (TSX: CHE-U, OTC: CGIFF)–Nov. 11
  • Daylight Energy (TSX: DAY, OTC: DAYYF)–Nov. 4
  • Enerplus Resources Fund (TSX: ERF-U, NYSE: ERF)–Nov. 12
  • Newalta Corp (TSX: NAL, OTC: NWLTF)–Nov. 5
  • Parkland Income Fund (TSX: PKI-U, OTC: PKIUF)–Nov. 5
  • Penn West Energy Trust (TSX: PWT-U, NYSE: PWE)–Nov. 5
  • Perpetual Energy (TSX: PMT, OTC: PMGYF)–Nov. 9
  • Peyto Energy Trust (TSX: PEY-U, OTC: PEYUF)–Nov. 11
  • Provident Energy Trust (TSX: PVE-U, NYSE: PVX)–Nov. 10
  • Trinidad Drilling (TSX: TDG, OTC: TDGCF)–Nov. 4
  • Vermilion Energy Trust (TSX: VET-U, OTC: VETMF)–Nov. 5

Conservative Holdings

Keyera Facilities Income Fund (TSX: KEY-U, OTC: KEYUF) closed a previously announced private placement of CAD155 million of long-term senior unsecured notes to a group of institutional investors in Canada and the US. Proceeds will be used to repay CAD52.5 million of long-term debt that matured in August 2010, reduce short-term bank debt and fund growth capital expenditures and acquisitions. Keyera Facilities Income Fund is a buy up to USD26.

Northern Property REIT (TSX: NPR-U, OTC: NPRUF) is selling 1.8 million units at CAD25.50 per on a bought-deal basis, the proceeds of which will be used to pay down an operating line of credit and for general purposes. Northern Property REIT is a buy up to USD22.

RioCan REIT (TSX: REI-U, OTC: RIOCF) has acquired two retail properties in Hamilton, Ontario, and Gatineau, Quebec, totaling 558,881 square feet, for CAD100.7 million. Each property is anchored by a Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) store. RioCan REIT is a buy up to USD20.

Here are tentative third-quarter earnings announcement dates for the Canadian Edge Portfolio Conservative Holdings:

  • AltaGas Income Trust (TSX: ALA-U, OTC: ATGFF)–Oct. 28 (confirmed)
  • Artis REIT (TSX: AX-U, OTC: ARESF)–Nov. 11
  • Atlantic Power Corp (TSX: ATP, NYSE: AT)–Nov. 10
  • Bell Aliant Regional Communications Income Fund (TSX: BA-U, OTC: BLIAF)–Nov. 10
  • Bird Construction Income Fund (TSX: BDT-U, OTC: BIRDF)–Nov. 9
  • Brookfield Renewable Power Fund (TSX: BRC-U, OTC: BRPFF)–Nov. 3
  • Canadian Apartment Properties REIT (TSX: CAR-U, OTC: CDPYF)–Nov. 12
  • Cineplex Galaxy Income Fund (TSX: CGX-U, OTC: CPXGF)–Nov. 10
  • CML Healthcare Income Fund (TSX: CLC-U, OTC: CMHIF)–Nov. 11
  • Colabor Group (TSX: GCL, OTC: COLFF)–Oct. 7
  • Davis + Henderson Income Fund (TSX: DHF-U, OTC: DHIFF)–Nov. 2
  • IBI Income Fund (TSX: IBG-U, OTC: IBIBF)–Nov. 4
  • Innergex Renewable Energy (TSX: INE, OTC: INGXF)–Nov. 12
  • Just Energy Income Fund (TSX: JE-U, OTC: JUSTF)–Nov. 5
  • Keyera Facilities Income Fund (TSX: KEY-U, OTC: KEYUF)–Nov. 2 (confirmed)
  • Macquarie Power & Infrastructure Income Fund (TSX: MPT-U, OTC: MCQPF)–Nov. 3 (confirmed)
  • Northern Property REIT (TSX: NPR-U, OTC: NPRUF)–Nov. 12
  • Pembina Pipeline Income Fund (TSX: PIF-U, OTC: PMBIF)–Oct. 28
  • RioCan REIT (TSX: REI-U, OTC: RIOCF)–Oct. 26
  • TransForce (TSX: TFI, OTC: TFIFF)–Oct. 29 (confirmed)
  • Yellow Pages Income Fund (TSX: YLO-U, OTC: YLWPF)–Nov. 4

Oil and Gas

Zargon Energy Trust (TSX: ZAR-U, OTC: ZARFF) has completed the tuck-in acquisition of Oakmont Energy Ltd, a private oil and gas company that’s currently producing 110 barrels of crude oil and 1.03 million cubic feet of natural gas per day on lands adjacent to Zargon properties. The purchase price of CAD9.45 million includes 336,000 trust units and the assumption of approximately CAD3.45 million of net debt.

Oakmont has estimated proved and probable reserves of 0.77 million barrels of oil equivalent, which is comprised of 2.5 billion cubic feet of natural gas and 0.34 million barrels of oil and natural gas liquids. Zargon is also acquiring 8,700 net acres of undeveloped land and tax pools of approximately CAD7.6 million. Zargon is paying approximately CAD33,800 per producing barrel of oil equivalent per day and CAD12.27 per proved and probable barrels of oil equivalent. Zargon Energy Trust is a buy up to USD20.

Electric Power

Northland Power Income Fund (TSX: NPI-U, OTC: NPIFF) has arranged for financing for its wholly-owned 260 megawatt North Battleford Energy Center project in Saskatchewan via an international syndicate of 15 banks.

The financing consists of a CAD542 million non-recourse construction loan that will convert to a seven-year amortizing term loan after the start of commercial operations and letter of credit facilities for an additional CAD38 million to support the project’s other obligations. Northland has also negotiated a swap to fix the term loan rate over the entire 20 year duration of the project’s power purchase agreement with SaskPower.

Construction of the natural gas-fired baseload facility began in May 2010; commercial operations are expected to begin in the summer of 2013. Completion of the North Battleford project, the Spy Hill peaking plant and the 100 MW Mont Louis wind farm will boost Northland’s net generating capacity by more than 50 percent to 1,300 MW. Northland Power Income Fund is a buy up to USD14.

Gas/Propane

Arctic Glacier Income Fund’s (TSX: AG-U, OTC: AGUNF) US subsidiary has settled with the Michigan attorney general, without any admission of wrongdoing, all allegations that it violated the state’s antitrust laws. Under terms of the settlement, the subsidiary has agreed to pay USD350,000 in two installments in September and December of 2010. The settlement concludes all investigations, inquiries, claims and proceedings by the Michigan attorney general related to any alleged violations of applicable state and federal antitrust laws. Sell Arctic Glacier Income Fund, which remains entangled in federal and state litigation over its business practices.

Consumers’ Waterheater Income Fund (TSX: CWI-U, OTC: CWIUF) has reached agreement to buy Enbridge Electric Connections, which provides equipment and services related to smart sub-metering and remote measurement of electricity and water use in multi-unit condo and apartment complexes, for approximately CAD23.7 million in cash.

Enbridge Electric has approximately 30,000 billing customers, which Consumers’ management hopes will dovetail with its existing sub-metering business, Stratacon. Enbridge Electric’s customer base is predominantly in the new and retro-fit condominium market segments, while Stratacon’s focus is on the retro-fit rental apartment sector. The fund expects the acquisition to be accretive to earnings in 2011.

Consumers’ Waterheater also announced that CFO R. Stephen Bower has resigned effective immediately to pursue other interests. Chris Cawston will be interim CFO while the fund looks for a permanent replacement. Sell Consumers’ Waterheater Income Fund.

Business Trusts

Sun Gro Horticulture Income Fund’s (TSX: GRO-U, OTC: SGHRF) board of directors has established a special committee to consider options for the fund’s future, including the possible sale of the fund, a merger or other business combination, or a sale of all or a substantial portion of Sun Gro’s assets.

The board has adopted a unitholder rights plan, which is intended to provide unitholders and the board sufficient time to evaluate the merits of any offer or offers that may arise for ownership of the fund. The plan will also prevent an acquirer from gaining control of Sun Gro without paying unitholders an “appropriate control premium.” Hold Sun Gro Horticulture Income Fund.

Information Technology

BCE (TSX: BCE, NYSE: BCE) is buying CTV, Canada’s largest private television broadcaster, for CAD1.3 billion in cash. BCE already owns 15 percent of CTV; it will purchase the other 85 percent from privately held The Woodbridge Company, the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan and Toronto Star owner Torstar Corp (TSX: TS.B, OTC: TORSF).

The total value of the deal, including debt, is CAD3.2 billion. Acquiring full stake will accelerate BCE’s video growth for mobile, online services and satellite TV system while reducing content costs. It will also boost BCE’s fiber-to-the-home deployment in major urban areas. CTV’s assets include TSN, Discovery, MTV, MuchMusic and Bravo.

Wireless competition has gotten a bit intense in recent years; the CTV deal gives BCE a content advantage as it goes head-to-head-to-head with Telus Corp (TSX: T, NYSE: TU and Rogers Communications (TSX: RCI.B, NYSE: RCI). BCE is a buy up to USD30.

Food and Hospitality

North West Company Fund (TSX: NWF-U, OTC: NWTUF) reported fiscal second-quarter (ended July 31) net earnings of CAD19.9 million, a 2.7 decline from a year ago. Diluted earnings per share were CAD0.41, down from CAD0.43. The board approved a quarterly distribution of CAD0.34 to unitholders of record Sept. 30, payable Oct. 15.

Sales decreased 0.3 percent to CAD366.2 million but were up 3 percent excluding the foreign exchange impact; same-store sales rose 2.2 percent. Hold North West Company Fund.

Transports

WestJet Airlines (TSX: WJA, OTC: WJAFF) flew 65,000 more people this August than it did last August, as its load factor reached 82.2 percent. Revenue passenger miles (RPM), or traffic, increased 8.2 percent year over year. Capacity, measured in available seat miles (ASM), grew 11.3 percent. WestJet Airlines is a buy up to USD12.

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