Step by step, stocks continue their ascent with the help of an accommodative Federal Reserve. The blue chip S&P 500 carved out a new milestone this week, closing above the 2000 mark. Likewise, the Nasdaq 100 notched another post-tech bubble high. Other averages, however, while not acting poorly, have so far failed to set new records, but they’re not far off. Trading volume remains exceedingly light, which is to be expected at least through Labor Day.

In the options market, traders expect volatility to remain quite low in the coming 30 days. That’s a contrary indicator, but not a market timing tool on which we’d hang our hat, as at times it can defy expectations for very long periods. Meanwhile, there has been a very large increase in purchases of out-of-the-money put options (as the S&P marches higher), with traders taking out insurance against an outsized decline in share prices. Although it’s also not a perfect market timing tool, extreme readings on this latter indicator like we have today have proven insightful more often than not.

Our indicators presently tell us that this insurance won’t be needed, however. Still, the option activity underscores the nervous state of investors these days, despite the appearance of expected relative calm reflected in the VIX. And we’ll remind you that while our indicators sit in neutral for now and do not foresee much movement in either direction, markets can turn on a dime.

With stocks once more at the upper range of their trading channel, a modest 3 to 5 percent correction here would not surprise us in the least. Such corrections can occur at any time and for no clear reason.

Durable goods orders in July surged 22.6 percent, far beyond the 7.5 percent analysts predicted. We are not too excited about this headline number, however: after stripping out the often volatile transportation orders, the rate of change actually declined a modest 0.8 percent rather than the expected 0.5 percent increase. More encouraging, new building permits issued in July climbed 8.6 percent, an improvement over June’s 8.1 percent increase. Also, August consumer confidence came in at 92.4, well above the expected reading of 89 and last month’s 90.9. It was also the highest reading since before the Great Recession.