The FOMC a Non-Event 07-29-15

The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concluded its latest policy-setting meeting today. Widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, the FOMC did not disappoint.

Compared to its policy statement from mid-June (the previous FOMC confab), Yellen and company noted that the labor and housing markets have improved, and said that “the underutilization of labor resources has diminished.” The FOMC also said, as it did last month, that the committee will raise rates when it sees some more improvements in the labor market—the word “some” is new this month—and when it is “reasonably confident” that inflation will move back toward its 2 percent medium-term goal.

Based on Fed officials’ recent comments, a hike looks likely this year, but the increase should be quite incremental. As market participants have long anticipated the rate increase, when it finally occurs, there should not be any significant impact on the market, provided the central bank does not surprisingly over-tighten—for example, hike the federal funds rate to 1.5 percent in one fell swoop.

The FOMC will convene again in mid-September. Whether it will act at then will depend on upcoming economic data. The Fed won’t tighten until it judges that the U.S. economy is on sure footing, and raising the short-term rate now will give them room to cut again in the future if necessary. Thus, a rate hike isn’t necessarily a bad thing.

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