Follow the Leader

What a year 2016 proved for Energy Transfer Equity (NYSE: ETE). Its unit price was near 14 at the outset and at 4 less than six weeks later, on worries that its bid for Williams (NYSE: WMB) might prove a fatal overreach amid a vicious energy slump.

By June 30, having weaseled out of the Williams deal at no immediate cost, ETE was back at 14. And the fun was only getting started. Over the next five weeks the price ran up to nearly 19 as the partnership lined up new strategic investors in its Dakota Access Pipeline, adding to that project’s long-term value.

And then the nearly completed pipeline was halted by a burgeoning protest and federal permitting delays, shoving ETE’s price back to 14 by early November. From there, it was a sprint back to 19 into the year-end following the election of Donald Trump, an avowed fan of oil and pipelines.

It’s been a rewarding if queasy rollercoaster ride, with ETE returning  49% in 2016 including distributions. We leveraged our confidence in that outcome with three call option recommendations since late October, and subscribers who followed our advice doubled their money on each occasion (to this point in the one trade that remains open.)

While we’re still refining our Best Buys list for 2017, don’t expect turnover at the top spot occupied by ETE since mid-April, when units fetched $9.

Despite the recovery to this point, there’s simply no name in our portfolios that seems likelier to reel off a quick 20% gain from current levels. There’s been speculation of late about an investment from or asset sale to private equity giant Blackstone (NYSE: BX), possibly involving the postponed Lake Charles LNG export project. Lake Charles progress or a large successful capital raise would certainly be a modest positive, but the real driver for ETE’s unit price will be the accelerating rebound in shale drilling with the attendant volume gains and growth opportunities.

As an extremely well paid manager of a large pool of captive MLP capital, ETE is at its core a call option on industry growth. It paid a disproportionate price for that during the recent collapse, and remains undervalued relative to comparable midstream project sponsors.

Unless something fundamental changes, expect a higher buy limit once ETE exceeds the current one of $22. I believe it’s a matter of when not if, and my best guess as to when is sooner than later.

 

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