Back in the Saddle Again

Who wouldn’t like to take a couple of summer months off? After topping out on July 12, the 2016 MLP rally did just that, leaving the Alerian MLP Index 8% below that top by Sept. 15. But that downward drift ended abruptly this week, the Alerian recouping more than 4% over the last two days alone as oil prices rebound, natural gas hit an 18-month high and the Federal Reserve opted against a rate hike.

In truth, the equities continued to act well as they pulled back, with very little of the nerve-wracking volatility seen during the worst of the slump last winter. We got another clue last week when the year’s first MLP IPO got off to a very strong start; more on that below.

USA Compression Partners (NYSE: USAC) came back from the beach long before most other MLPs: its units have appreciated 27% since Aug. 2. No double-digit yield can really be considered safe; not now and probably not ever. But we like the risk/reward equation on USAC with domestic energy output steadying and poised to grow again as shale producers step up the pace of drilling. See New Buys for the details. Also, a shout-out to “Rdk” from the last subscriber chat, who asked about USAC. This isn’t our first recommendation based on a reader query and it likely won’t be the last. A community that shares what it learns is smarter than its smartest individual.

What I’ve learned from reviewing the latest quarterly results of every portfolio recommendation in the last six weeks is that the MLP rally is backed by solid fundamentals that will look even better when energy prices are higher. A fair bit of deleveraging has already taken place, cost-cutting is already literally paying dividends and while project backlogs aren’t what they were two years ago they’re still impressively large given today’s much more conservative energy price assumptions.

This month’s Portfolio Update concludes our review of second-quarter results and upgrades to Buy two high-growth MLPs that have fallen out of favor lately. Investors have been rotating into higher yields of late at the expense of many of the less immediately gratifying former high-flyers. But there are few higher-quality or faster-growing income streams out there than what’s on offer from Shell Midstream Partners (NYSE: SHLX), while Sunoco Logistics Partners (NYSE: SXL) is still growing plenty fast while yielding 7%. Their recent weakness is a buying opportunity.

Like its general partner Energy Transfer Equity (NYSE: ETE), Sunoco Logistics has been hurt by the Obama Administration’s suspension of a controversial construction permit required to complete the mostly built Dakota Access crude pipeline. As previously noted, the pipeline is very likely to go through eventually, after a delay that should last months rather than years.

This month’s In Focus considers the political backlash against pipelines and speculates that the delay of the Missouri river crossing by Dakota Access will become considerably less expedient on Election Day. I also discuss the broader and longer-term implications of opposition to new pipes that has intensified amid an energy infrastructure building boom.

Last but not least, Robert Rapier has a detailed review of Noble Midstream Partners (NYSE: NBLX) the IPO that hit the ground running last week after ending a year-long hiatus of initial public offerings by MLPs. A 5.6% yield from the gathering affiliate of a single oil driller isn’t particularly attractive, even though NBLX will likely increase its payout rapidly for the first few years at least. But a 5.6% yield after early indications of a 7.5% one based on the preliminary IPO pricing range is indicative of the hunger out there for yield as well as growth in the midstream sector. I expect new 52-week highs for MLPs by the end of the year.

Portfolio Update

  • USA Compression Partners (NYSE: USAC) added to Aggressive Portfolio. Buy below $22
  • Shell Midstream Partners (NYSE: SHLX) upgraded to a Buy below $33 in Growth Portfolio
  • Sunoco Logistics Partners (NYSE: SXL) upgraded to a Buy below $33 in Growth Portfolio

 

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