Enbridge Bags Spectra to Applause

A year after Energy Transfer (NYSE: ETE) spooked investors with its ill-fated offer to buy Williams (NYSE: WMB) at a lofty premium including $6 billion in cash, two more pipeline giants agreed to tie the knot to a reception that could not be more different.

Spectra Energy’s (NYSE: SE) agreement to sell itself to Enbridge (NYSE: ENB) in a $28 billion all-stock deal won widespread praise, such that the acquirer’s stock rose 5% despite the 11.5% premium it offered Spectra.

That’s understandable given the broad diversification benefits of a deal combining Enbridge’s dominant Canadian crude shipping franchise with Spectra’s valuable U.S. gas transmission system.

160906ESWMLPPenbse1

Not weighing down the combined balance sheet with a cash premium also seems wise, given the combined company’s uncomfortably high leverage. It’d starting out with a pro-forma debt/EBITDA ratio of 6.2 for 2016, though that should drop to 4.3 by 2019, management hopes.

But of course the main reason the Williams merger got panned and failed, while this popular one is likely to succeed is the timing. Energy prices are not plummeting the way they were a year ago, and neither are the share prices of energy infrastructure companies. Credit agencies are no longer looking for reasons to downgrade.

The attractions to Enbridge in diversifying into North American natural gas, just about the world’s lowest-cost energy source, are obvious. Spectra’s reasons to do this deal probably start with its lofty share price, now up 71% year-to-date.

Enbridge is up 30%-year-to-date but still down 18% since April 1, 2015 on crude’s considerably more muddled prospects. Spectra’s management can plausibly hope to be selling high and buying low.

If the deal closes as expected in early 2017 Enbridge plans to increase its dividend, currently yielding 3.8%, by 15% next year. Thereafter, management is projecting annual dividend growth of 10-12% straight through to 2024, despite all the recent reminders about  how little long-term promises are worth during an energy slump.

Given the deal’s relatively small premium and considerable upside, I’m surprised Spectra’s share price didn’t run at least a little more on the possibility, modest but real, of a competing offer. If Spectra were to break the deal it would owe Enbridge a $1 billion termination fee under the terms of the merger agreement.

We are not going to change our Hold rating on this Conservative Portfolio recommendation, as merger arbitrage risk is something prudent investors would do well to avoid. Speculators, on the other hand, should certainly consider taking a flyer on SE here.

The deal is not expected to have an immediate effect on Enbridge Energy Partners (NYSE: EEP) or Enbridge Energy Management (NYSE: EEQ), two Enbridge affiliates we recently recommended. EEP and EEQ remain Growth buys below $30 and $29, respectively.

Nor are there current plans to merge EEP with Spectra’s own affiliated MLP Spectra Energy Partners (NYSE: SEP).  But MLP limited partners tend to get nervous when the sponsor is bought, and SEP’s chronic underperformance this year (after escaping last year’s bear market relatively unscathed) got a little worse following Monday’s 1% decline.

With SEP units now yielding 6% from highly predictable cash flows, with modest leverage and good coverage on a payout growing 7-8% annually, this extended sideways drift has now provided a good entry point and a long-term opportunity. We’re adding SEP to the Conservative Portfolio. Buy below $50.

 

Stock Talk

Add New Comments

You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk OR create an account