Feeling the Burn

If you live in northeast U.S. you know that air conditioning has literally been a life saver during the most recent heat wave.

What you might not know is that the power plants trying to keep up with soaring air conditioning demand were already burning record volumes of natural gas before the latest hot spell.

As of Aug. 4, nine of the 10 highest power burn days ever occurred in July 2016, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

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High demand created an unusual drop of gas inventories the last week of July, the first summertime storage drop in a decade.

Injections into storage have been subpar too, as a result of low gas prices that have idled most drilling rigs, curtailing the longtime boom in shale gas production.

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Natural gas prices remain well below their historical average largely as a result of high storage levels, a souvenir of last year’s cool summer and the mild winter that followed. But the excess over typical storage levels has already been roughly cut in half in recent months. At this point, a cold winter month is all it might take to bring the storage cushion back in line.

So we have current prices too low to curb demand or stimulate supply, held back only by the storage left over from a time when those conditions did not obtain.  Prices should move higher long before storage levels normalize; the market looks forward, whereas storage is a trailing indicator of supply and demand.

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All of which makes us want to speculate that the past week’s dip in natural gas prices will shortly reverse. We will be doing so via the VelocityShares 3x Long Natural Gas ETN (NYSE: UGAZ), which, as the name suggests, triples the daily percentage move in the price of natural gas, up or down.

Although leveraged instruments like UGAZ don’t have an expiration date like stock options, they are just as risky and are similarly subject to time decay. That’s because they’re designed to profit from a sustained trend but are devalued by routine volatility. The longer you hold a leveraged ETN, the likelier it is to underperform the underlying commodity. This is a bet on a near-term rally in natural gas, not on its appreciation in February. Like our other leveraged trade recommendations, they’re suitable only for the most aggressive investors prepared to suffer a total loss.

With all that said, we obviously like the near-term odds, and are adding UGAZ to our leveraged trades portfolio. Buy below $32.60.

 

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