In this issue:

It’s possible, if you’re easily alarmed or frequently excited, to imagine a reasonably plausible series of unfortunate events leading from the U.K. referendum vote in favor of leaving the European Union to the disintegration of the European common market, global trade and Western civilization.

Which would of course mean that the 5% discount slapped on crude on Friday wasn’t nearly enough. Fortunately, we’re not excitable sorts, and see the referendum result for what it is: a protest vote that could be potentially costly for the United Kingdom but not likely to matter much for anyone else even if the exit came to pass, which still seems unlikely.

That doesn’t mean that oil can’t get cheaper in the near-term, because it certainly can. Financial market participants have been caught offside with too much exposure to risk, and the risk-shedding phase that could be upon us tends to push up the dollar and devalue dollar-denominated commodities dependent on economic growth.

But crude is unlikely to trade off the Brexit threat for long. The issue’s connection to global growth and the price of West Texas Intermediate is simply too tenuous, and the exit process so uncertain and drawn out it might never start, never mind end.

While going it alone won 52% of the vote last week, it remains an unpopular cause in Parliament, in the business community and among the country’s best-educated citizens. Those 48% haven’t conceded anything, while some Leave voters were already sounding regretful Friday, between the drubbing of the pound and UK stocks and numerous reports of harassment of foreigners.

If the looming leadership contests in the country’s two traditional parties do eventually produce a prime minister willing to lead talks about leaving the EU, that person will find a Europe willing to continue to trade so long as the UK fulfills most of its current obligations with no further effective say in rules-making. Deserters tend to get a rotten deal, and we doubt the UK will elect a leader willing to go down that road.

The only certainty is that Brexit will remain irrelevant to the price of U.S. natural gas, which will need a stretch of favorable weather to hang on to the recent gains despite record storage volumes, Barring a summer heat wave the path of least resistance may be down until the heating season gets underway. But our examination of the recent trends leaves us convinced that U.S. demand growth will eventually catch up to supply, pushing prices higher.

Nor will the European Union’s membership roster make much of a difference to Energy Transfer Equity (NYSE: ETE), which caught a huge break Friday when a Delaware judge ruled it could abandon the pending merger with Williams (NYSE: WMB) without penalty. We have updated our recommendations for ETE as well as WMB.

We’ve also cooled on one of our Best Buy recommendations following recent gains. First-quarter midstream earnings were solid, and the subsequent gains in oil and gas prices should bolster to sector’s bottom line this summer. But this is a good time to become more selective.

Portfolio Update

• AmeriGas Partners (NYSE: APU) downgraded to Hold in Conservative portfolio
• Energy Transfer Equity (NYSE: ETE) buy limit increased to $19 in Growth portfolio
• Energy Transfer Partners (NYSE: ETP) downgraded to Hold in Conservative portfolio
• Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE: EPD) buy limit increased to $33 in Conservative portfolio
• PBF Logistics (NYSE: PBFX) downgraded to Hold in Growth portfolio
• Williams (NYSE: WMB) downgraded to Hold in Growth portfolio

Commodity Update

Oil and gas prices were setting 11-month highs, with Brent and WTI both above $50/bbl, until they took a tumble following the U.K. referendum vote.

In Other News

• Raymond James expects West Texas Intermediate to trade at $80/bbl by the end of next year

• Shares of Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) plunged after it offered to buy solar power marketer SolarCity (NASDAQ: SCTY)

• OPEC said its members’ oil revenue plunged by $438 billion to a 10-year low in 2015

• Saudi Arabia’s new energy minister Khalid Al-Falih  said oil producers are no longer pumping excessively, but acknowledged that the global inventory overhang still has to be worked off

• Volkswagen has agreed to pay $10.2 billion to settle some U.S. claims stemming from its emissions cheating scandal.