A Welcome Change in Climate

The MLP sector has stalled following first-quarter earnings reports to digest its hefty spring relief gains. But the results were largely positive and well-received, reassuring investors that domestic production volumes, at least on the turf served by most public MLPs, continue to increase.

And while market gains have slowed of late the healing process continues, with capital markets once again receptive to MLP sales of debt and equity.

We have updates on five partnerships, including two favorites demoted from the Best Buys list.   

AmeriGas Partners (NYSE: APU) reported second-quarter declines of 13-14% in its propane distribution volumes and earnings, in line with the second warmest winter on record. It lowered its annual profit forecast by 13% as well, and raised its distribution by just 2.2% year-over-year, roughly half the prior rate. Even so annual coverage will shrink to 1.07x, short of the 1.2x long-term target. AmeriGas could benefit if weather reverts to norm, and even more so if the next winter is unusually cold due to La Nina. But some of its recent margin gains will be at risk should wholesale prices continue to rebound. After a strong May the unit price is down 2%. The annualized yield stands at 8.4%. Conservative pick APU is downgraded to a Hold, but it’s a comfortable hold at this yield level.

Energy Transfer Partners (NYSE: ETP) reported disappointing distribution coverage for the second quarter in a row, earning just 86% of its quarterly payout mostly as a result of a higher unit count, higher repayments owed to its general partner and a reduction in its own receipts from affiliates. “We continue to evaluate our distributions on a quarterly basis and we’ll be prudent as it relates to balancing coverage and liquidity with distributions,” the chief financial officer noted on the earnings conference call. In a May securities filing related to the merger based on the information provided by Energy Transfer, Williams said Energy Transfer Equity is planning to financially aid its MLP affiliates so that they can maintain current distribution levels and investment-grade credit ratings. Based on a first-quarter payout (which was kept level with the prior quarter’s distribution) ETP units currently yield 10.8%. The unit price has doubled from its February low but remains down more than 4o% since late 2014. After exceeding its most recent buy limit, Conservative pick ETP is downgraded to Hold.

Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE: EPD) reported flat EBITDA vs a year earlier in the first quarter, as growth in liquids pipeline volumes offset declines in gas transportation and petrochemical margins as well as last summer’s sale of offshore pipeline interests. The cash flow provided 1.28x coverage on a distribution increased 5.3% year-over-year. Units now yield an annualized 5.6% after rallying 40% from the winter lows, though they remain down 30% since late 2014. On the conference call, management sounded bullish on the medium-term outlook for energy prices and midstream margins, Enterprise continues a rapid buildout of its infrastructure, including two gas processing plants and an ethane export terminal set to come online this year, followed by a big polyethylene plant in 2017. Leverage is reasonable at 4.2x debt/EBITDA.  Conservative pick EPD is the #6 Best Buy below the increased limit of $33.

Magellan Midstream Partners (NYSE: MMP) blamed the 12% drop in its first-quarter distributable cash flow on reduced butane blending margins and the timing of maintenance spending, partially offset by higher crude pipeline profits. It still managed 1.28x coverage on a distribution it expects to increase 10% this year, followed by growth of “at least” 8% in 2017. The yield is back down to 4.3% after a 30% rebound in the unit price from February’s low, which has left it just 16% shy of the 2014 record high. Debt/EBITDA has crept up to 3x and is expected to go higher this year as Magellan puts new fuel and crude pipelines into service, but is expected to remain “well short” of 4x, even as the partnership continues its multi-year stretch of not issuing new equity. Conservative pick MMP is the #5 Best Buy below $80.

PBF Logistics (NYSE: PBFX) reported an 11% increase in in its first-quarter distributable cash flow, providing coverage of 1.29x on a distribution grown 20% in a year’s time. The three-year-old refinery logistics MLP recently passed three key milestones: a successful first secondary offering in March, the retirement of its founder and chairman, refining industry icon Thomas O’Malley in May, and in between the closing of its purchase of four East Coast fuel storage terminals from Plains All American (NYSE: PAA), the partnership’s first third-party acquisition. The terminals will help the partnership diversify away from crude-by-rail operations that have become much less profitable since the crude crash, leaving in doubt the renewal prospects of related contracts with its sponsor that expire in five to seven years. But in the meantime sponsor PBF Energy (NYSE: PBF) has recently acquired two additional refineries, expanding the inventory of assets it can sell to PBF Logistics. Given the refining industry’s recent struggles it’s notable that PBFX increased its quarterly distribution by a penny per unit sequentially, rather than two cents as in the four prior quarters. Still, the current yield is an appealing 7.5% despite the 18% capital gain since the March 31 secondary. Growth pick PBFX, formerly the #7 Best Buy, is downgraded to Hold.

 

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