Subtle Changes: An Outlook for 2011

The new year is finally upon us, bringing a host of new and old challenges. As I noted in the December issue, investors will have to be more selective in 2011 as the lingering effects of the financial crisis continue to work through the system.

But 2011 should be a rewarding year for investors. Large-capitalization US companies with strong export businesses should perform well, bolstered by strong foreign demand and improving domestic fundamentals.

And while Nicholas Kaiser, the subject of this month’s feature interview, expects a stronger US dollar, I anticipate the greenback will continue on the downward trajectory it’s followed for the past decade.

Meanwhile, global consumer confidence will improve, providing a major tailwind for US exporters. Dividend-paying companies are particularly attractive now that a tax deal has been struck on Capitol Hill, assuring continued favorable treatment of dividends.

Large-cap value fund T. Rowe Price Equity Income (PRFDX, 800-638-5660) offers an excellent way to profit from an improving business outlook and an attractive income stream.

Brian Rogers, who has helmed the fund since its launch in 1985, is a dyed-in-the-wool value investor who seeks companies that are priced cheaply relative to historical price multiples. He’ll also sometimes buy into blue chips that offer attractive yields, if not the best bargains.

Rogers has an affinity for companies that are experiencing temporary difficulties, as evidenced by his decision to hold on to shares of BP (NYSE: BP) in the days following the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. He also maintained a stake in General Electric (NYSE: GE) throughout the dark days of the financial crisis.

Those bets don’t always pan out, but the strategy works more often than not. The fund ranks in the top quarter of its category on a three-, five- and 10-year basis. A major reason for this track record of success is the downside cushion provided by his dividend-focused value strategy.

The fund is significantly overweight on consumer goods, industrial materials, energy and utilities relative to his benchmark, the S&P 500. All of these sectors should outperform in 2011.

Technology is another sector that should lead the way in 2011, but a paucity of attractive dividends means that Rogers tends to steer clear of the group.

This is a minor quibble. With a 1.9 percent yield and attractive growth prospects, T. Rowe Price Equity Income is well-positioned for 2011.

US equities should do well in 2011; however, expect US-centric fixed-income funds to underperform as investors shift assets out of bond funds to be better positioned for stronger growth in the global economy.

Investors pulled more than $1 billion from bond funds in the second week of December, reflecting increased confidence as the tax treatment of dividends became clearer.

Although US bonds should play some role in a diversified portfolio, the 2011 outlook for emerging-market bonds is particularly positive.

Municipal (muni) bonds should also enjoy a strong year, though the group faces some headwinds–for example, falling property values have hurt tax revenue for a host of municipalities. But demand for munis should increase as the leading edge of the Baby Boomer generation enters retirement. Many municipalities have addressed the worst of their budget issues in the wake of the financial crisis and improved their credit quality.

Investors seeking to gain exposure to municipal bonds this year should consider Northern Tax-Exempt (NOTEX, 800-595-9111) and Marshall Intermediate Tax-Free (MITFX, 800-236-3863).

Northern Tax-Exempt has earned its position on The Rukeyser 100 by ranking in the top of its category for three years, thanks to manager Timothy McGregor’s focus on high-quality municipal bonds.

With almost 75 percent of the fund’s assets invested in bonds rated AA or better, the fund’s biggest risk is its long average duration of 9.3 years. The fund currently yields 3.6 percent.

I don’t expect any movement on interest rates before midyear. Barring a huge spike in inflation, the Federal Reserve will be reluctant to hike rates while the economic recovery remains on thin ice.

However, for those investors who do expect action on interest rates, Marshall Intermediate Tax-Free might be a marginally better offering.

The fund boasts a similar track record of total returns but comes with a shorter average duration of 5.1 years and a 3.5 percent yield.

Finally, commodities and emerging markets will present investors with significant growth potential in 2011.

We’ve made the case for emerging markets repeatedly in past issues and I won’t belabor the point here. One need only peruse previous issues for our favorite emerging-markets picks. However, I’d like to call your attention to US Global Investors Global Resources (PSPFX, 800-873-8637) in the commodities space.

I don’t recommend funds that use futures and other derivatives to gain exposure to commodity prices because these investment vehicles generally aren’t very tax efficient.

These funds also have the propensity to distribute capital gains and can fall prey to a situation known as “contango,” in which the futures price climbs higher than the expected future spot price.

I do like natural-resource equity funds though, and US Global Investors Global Resources offers a nice mix of exposure to both extremely large and small resources companies; these names account for about 20 percent of the fund’s investable assets.

A second round of quantitative easing in the US, coupled with resurgent industrial demand in Asia, particularly in China, will only drive commodity prices higher.

And while a rising tide will lift all boats, small resource firms may fare the best, as they’re strongly leveraged to spot commodity prices.

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