Still Building

Canada’s surging and Asia’s still steaming ahead. Otherwise, the road to global economic growth remains riddled with potholes.

Construction is always one of the most economically sensitive sectors. In good times, everything from office buildings and industrial facilities to single family homes is in boom mode. Then, in bad times, construction activity slows, often sharply.

The 21 months since the Fall of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, have been such as time. The crash in the homebuilding industry has been the biggest headline grabber to date, with worries about a glut in commercial property and eventual crash a close second.

But even governments haven’t been immune. For example, cash-strapped states have killed or postponed billions in highway projects over the past year, due to the inability to raise funds. And, worried about the possibility of another 2008-style credit freeze, many companies are as unwilling to borrow as fearful investors are to lend.

For the US, one major exception to the infrastructure spending slowdown is the federal government. Only a relatively small percentage of the billions allocated by President Obama have been spent on completed projects thus far. But there’s a lot more to filter through the system during the next few years for everything from new high-speed rail projects and smart grid technology to refurbishing the roads and bridges of federal highways.

Spending Trends

Note: To 2015 in billions of USD.
Source: GSM Association. Pike Research. US Department of Energy.

Two other areas where infrastructure spending has escaped the worst of the downturn thus far are telecommunications and energy. America’s explosion of spending on construction of midstream assets to develop shale oil and gas continues in 2010, and will almost surely accelerate going forward as producers focus capital onshore with the demise of offshore deepwater drilling.

Carbon dioxide regulation legislation appears deadlocked in the US Congress as November elections near. Electric power companies, however, already face a bewildering array of standards in the states and now new rules from the Environmental Protection Agency, which has ruled CO2 emissions from plants as hazardous to human health and therefore within its purview to regulate.

As a result, like their counterparts in almost every other country, US electrics are spending on cutting CO2 emissions. For some, such as Nevada-based NV Energy (NYSE: NVE), the solution is to build or buy renewable energy sources. For others, it’s swapping out older coal-fired plants for new gas-fired capacity. And still others like Duke Energy (NYSE: DUK) have worked to develop economic carbon capture and sequestration for the coal-fired power plants that still provide half of America’s electricity.

During the recession, prophets of doom repeatedly predicted Americans’ love affair with smart phones would cool in the face of rising unemployment and growing economic insecurity. In reality, it only heated up, as demand for connectivity and technology have continued to leap ahead, hand in hand.

AT&T (NYSE: T) and Verizon (NYSE: VZ) remain the biggest spenders on their networks, forking out nearly $20 billion a year each. But they’re far from the only companies investing heavily to keep speed and capacity ahead of the driving need to accommodate ever-more sophisticated smart phone applications. And with ever-more complicated networks comes the need for better cyber security, now a preoccupation of both the private sector and the US military.

The best news is that none of this spending shows any sign of slowing down. In fact, we’re more likely to see it accelerate as the global economy eventually gets back on its feet. That may take a while for sovereign debt-challenged Europe. But it’s already happened in Asia and the part of North America that trades with it most. And as it kicks in, private sector spending is likely to dwarf what we’re seeing now from governments.

Companies geared up to take advantage of infrastructure spending have been a major part of the Portfolio 2020 Model Portfolio since its inception in September 2008. Our picks weren’t immune from the downturn of that year, or the recession that followed. But they remained healthy as businesses, in large part because they were tapped into these key growth areas that survived the recession.

In my view, the odds of a double-dip or “Big W” recession continue to diminish. The crisis of confidence in European government debt is no laughing matter, and in fact is forcing governments to slash budgets at what’s arguably the time they should be spending to boost growth. Unlike the mortgage-backed debt at the root of the 2008 credit crunch, however, sovereign debt is very much a known quantity. That’s a huge difference that pretty much rules out a repeat of 2008.

Should we see a relapse, however, these companies are solid bets to transcend the damage once again, by virtue of dominant positions in emerging 21st century industries. That’s the best possible reason to feel confident holding them in mid-2010, with investor fears at levels rarely seen before.

In fact, coupled with our picks trading at generally lower levels since last month’s Flash Crash, it’s an ideal time to buy them and others with like strengths. That’s what we’ll be doing in the next few weeks, with articles on cyber security, communications and post-BP disaster energy.

When it comes to investing, the way to make real money is to buy good businesses and riding them as long as they deliver growth. That’s a strategy that sometimes requires patience and a strong stomach. But it’s what built the fortunes of men like Warren Buffett, while others with shorter horizons ran in place.

Roger S. Conrad is Chief Investment Strategist of Portfolio 2020.

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