The Domestic Demand Side of China

China’s GDP grew a massive 11.9 percent in the first quarter of 2010. A major contributor to that rapid growth was the nation’s huge stimulus program, that was dispersed much more quickly the US version. What’s more, the monies stayed in China, boosting Chinese businesses.

A big chunk of th stimulus was spending on infrastructure improvement. It’s estimated that infrastructure spending in China contributed as much as 3 to 5 percent to this quarter’s GDP growth; and that number is likely to hold through coming quarters.

For the past 22 years, millions of rural Chinese have streamed into the country’s burgeoning cities in search of work and greater opportunity. At the end of 2008, just over 46 percent of China’s population resided in urban areas. It took 120 years for the UK to achieve that level of urbanization; the US took 80 years and Japan took 30 years.

And beyond the percentages, the sheer number of people you’re talking about in China is staggering—46 percent of the population is around 1 billion people. That volume requires an undeniable need for gigantic amounts infrastructure investment.

It’s no surprise then that infrastructure spending in China is expected to reach $35 trillion in the next 20 years. That’s on top of the staggering $586 billion spending plan that China enacted last year to counteract the global financial crisis.

Unfortunately, the securities of many of the key companies involved in those projects are difficult, if not impossible, for US investors to purchase. But this is precisely why the domestic demand economy will bolster China‘s growth for decades to come. It’s also why we’ve found a few great ways to buy into this enduring trend in our subscriber-based service, Global ETF Profits.

INDXX China Infrastructure Index (NYSE: CHXX), recently launched by Emerging Global Shares, allows investors to harness these trends through a single exchange-traded fund (ETF). With access to local exchanges, the fund tracks a diversified basket of Chinese infrastructure outfits.

Real estate management and development names account for 22.7 percent of the portfolio, and the sector that should prove quite profitable over the long term.

More immediately, the central bank’s moves to clamp down on lending should cool real estate prices. Although higher lending rates have made it easier for homebuyers to securing financing, affordability measures indicate that homeownership is well within reach of most households. That should provide broad support for real estate prices even if price growth slows in hot markets.

Railroad stocks also figure prominently in the ETF’s portfolio, with a position in China Railway Group (Hong Kong: 0390) accounting for 4.7 percent of investable assets.

Given the huge distances involved in moving goods, the bulk of China’s freight travels by railroad. And unlike in the US, passenger rail is a major mode of transportation.

China Railway primarily works on the construction side of the business. In that capacity, the company is involved in several major projects, including a $17.6 billion passenger line being constructed across China’s arid northwest, a $24 billion high-speed line that will run from Beijing to Guangzhou in the southeast, and a $22 freight network in Shanxi province.

The ETF is lighter on names related to airports and seaports as well as roads than you might expect. That being said, it’s an excellent way to play China’s ongoing infrastructure build-out.

If you’re interested in buying in, check the fund’s net asset value and use limit orders to purchase shares; trading volume hasn’t picked up yet for this newly launched fund. But it’s currently the best way to play Chinese infrastructure spending.

Infrastructure spending isn’t just a Chinese story though—it’s a global mega-trend as the strong pace of growth and urbanization continues around the world. iShares S&P Global Infrastructure (NYSE: IGF) is a good choice for if you want to play the broader trend.

Benjamin Shepherd is co-editor of Global ETF Profits.

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