Out of the Spotlight, Still in the Money

Health care, not global warming, is now the headline debate in Washington, DC. Behind the scenes, however, legislation to regulate carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from power plants, automobiles and factories continues to move forward. And that’s money in the bank for the best-positioned companies.

This week Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA), historically an enemy of nuclear power, again declared that new funding and incentives for nukes would be part of any CO2 control bill. Anything significant would make it very hard for anyone in the electricity industry to oppose. The same holds true of Republican Senators like Lamar Alexander (R-TN), who has repeatedly advocated major incentives for nuclear energy in the US.

As I’ve pointed out here on several occasions, nuclear power is moving ahead quite rapidly abroad. This is particularly true in developing Asia, where it’s seen as a way to meet rapidly growing power needs with minimal air pollution.

In the US wind power has become an extremely successful business. And it almost certainly will be for years to come, due in large part to what are effectively laws in 33 states and the District of Columbia mandating its use.

Nuclear power, in contrast, has been the subject no one really wants to talk about. Real incentives, however, promise to unlock at least as much in the way of potential earnings power. And the list of would-be beneficiaries is short: the handful of owners of existing nuclear plants, since existing sites are the only place new plants can feasibly be built.

The NW3 Portfolio currently features the world’s biggest nuclear power producer, Electricite de France (France: EDF, OTC: ECIFF). EDF dominates French production and has recently expanded its reach elsewhere, particularly Britain, where it bought out British Nuclear.

The company’s main US exposure now is a proposed venture with Constellation Energy Group (NYSE: CEG). Constellation currently owns five plants, mainly in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states.

The venture would divide ownership of those plants on a 50-50 basis between EDF and Constellation with plans to build five more. The plants would operate in unregulated markets, meaning profits would be determined by cost, output and market prices for power.

Unfortunately, the EDF/Constellation deal has thus far been hung up by Maryland regulators, who appear to be angling for rate concessions from Constellation’s utility unit Baltimore G&E. That could delay or even eventually derail this deal, to the extreme detriment of still cash-starved Constellation.

The good news is a successful deal isn’t in EDF’s share price, and the company is doing well elsewhere. If it can get the Constellation venture on track, it would be a significant new source of earnings, particularly with new incentives from Washington.

If not, however, EDF still has substantial opportunities elsewhere, including in developing Asia. Accordingly, Electricite de France is still a buy for growth and income up to USD50.

Carbon capture technology is another, less obvious beneficiary of prospective global warming legislation. Coal burning utilities are being given a grace period under which they’ll have time to meet mandates for cutting CO2 emissions without incurring penalties.

Even under the Waxman-Markey bill that passed the House of Representatives, coal utilities would essentially be given enough carbon credits to offset emissions until 2025. Further, half of the US Senate hails from states where 50 percent or more of electricity comes from burning coal, making it likely the final bill will be even more lenient.

Ultimately, any CO2 bill will make burning coal more expensive. But delaying the inevitable does carry a huge fringe benefit: Time to evolve and develop technology to capture CO2 before it hits the atmosphere, store it and even recycle it as usable fuel. CO2, for example, is already used to increase yields of aging oil and gas wells.

Here, too, we have an NW3 Portfolio bet: France-based engineering powerhouse Alstom (France: ALO, OTC: AOMFF). This week the company announced the successful startup and operation of a new pilot plant to capture CO2, built and operated in alliance with Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW).

The plant uses a proprietary technology developed jointly by the pair that’s designed to capture approximately 1,800 metric tons of CO2 per year. It’s attached to the flue of a coal-fired boiler of a facility owned by Dow in South Charleston, West Virginia, and will operate over a two year text period.

If successfully tested, the technology has the potential to be applied to coal-fired power plants across the country. Throughout the testing period the pair will be able to observe the process over a range of conditions. The goal is to gather the data needed for a large-scale demonstration plant, of which there are several in the state.

Alstom has been developing carbon capture technology for several years, including a successful test project in Wisconsin. This, however, represents its most significant step yet. And not surprisingly, they’ve picked up the support of West Virginia Governor Joe Manchin III, whose goal is to make his state “the leader in revolutionary clean coal technology.”

This project is still a long way from producing revenue. But the company can afford to be patient, given its powerful base of operations that range from building high-speed trains to constructing of a wide range of power plants including wind and nuclear spread over 70 countries.

And it has high ambitions, including already announced plans for 10 CO2 capture demonstration projects in seven countries. Buy Alstom up to USD80.

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