Survival of the Fittest

AmeriGas Partners (NYSE: APU) units have appreciated 26% year-to-date, lowering the annualized yield at 8.6% The propane distributor has offset some of the revenue lost to the past winter’s record warmth with higher margins, as we noted on Feb. 29. It has sufficient surplus coverage to keep the distribution growing 5% annually in almost any climate. Conservative pick APU is the #8 Best Buy below $51.

Capital Products Partners (NASDAQ: CPLP) has been badly hurt by worries that its long-term, well-above-market charters to Hyundai Merchant Marine is at risk, as the troubled Korean shipping line scrambles to refinance heavy debts amid mounting losses. CPLP’s unit price is down 45% year-to-date, pushing the yield up to 31%, and 18% solely from its recently lucrative tanker charters. Despite the apparent long-term value, we’re wary of doubling down on a security with this much downward momentum. Aggressive pick CPLP is downgraded to a Hold.

Delek Logistics Partners (NYSE: DKL) has rebounded 36% since mid-February but remains down 14%year-to-date. The logistics offshoot of second-tier southeastern refiner Delek Holdings (NYSE: DKH) offers a 7.7% yield largely backed by fixed, long-term contracts with its sponsor. It aims to increase the payout 15% annually for the next several years.  Conservative pick DKL is the #6 Best Buy below $40.

Energy Transfer Equity (NYSE: ETE) continues to do everything in its power to dissuade Williams (NYSE: WMB) from completing their pending merger. Following a sweetheart deal for insiders promising them discounted equity in return for lower distributions over the next two years, Energy Transfer recently disclosed plans to dilute by nearly 10% the equity stake it has promised to Williams shareholders. In addition, ETE dramatically lowered its estimate of the deal’s long-term benefits and said it would reduce Williams’ headquarters staff and presence in Oklahoma. It’s become increasingly clear that following through with the deal and its $6 billion cash outlay would likely force ETE to cut the distribution in order to protect the credit rating. That’s why ETE units now yield more than 16%, after declining 49% year-to-date and 80% from June’s record high. The operator of one of the largest U.S. midstream complexes continues to offer plenty of long-term value. There’s lots of near-term risk as well as a result of the soured merger deal and the resulting strain on Energy Transfer’s balance sheet. But we believe the negatives to be largely priced in. Growth pick ETE is the #3 Best Buy below $15.

Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE: EPD) has appreciated 24% since Feb.  11 but remains down 4% year-to-date. Units yield an annualized 6.4% on a well-covered distribution set to continue growing 5% a year. Conservative pick EPD is the #5 Best Buy below $30.

EQT Midstream Partners (NYSE: EQM) has rebounded 10% since mid-February, though it still trails 6% year-to-date. The Marcellus gas gatherer and shipper has been a clear outperformer throughout the MLP bust, and its modest 4% yield reflects 20% annual distribution growth backed by strong cash flow coverage. Its long-term, ship-or-pay transmission contracts are ultimately secured by the financial strength and top-shelf drilling acreage of sponsor EQT (NYSE: EQT) and other nearby drillers. Conservative pick EQM is upgraded to a Buy below $80.

Global Partners (NYSE: GLP) reported quarterly results consistent with its recent 34% cut in the distribution. Crude wholesale margin collapsed from a peak of $45 million in the summer of 2014 to just $6 million in the most recent period, as cheap imported crude increasingly priced the Bakken grades that Global ships out of the U.S. East Coast. As a result, half of the 2,200 rail cars Global has leased at fixed cost for another three or four more years were rusting in storage as of Dec. 31. The partnership also has financial commitments to pipelines and barges associated with this business, so it’s entirely possible for the shrunken profit to turn into swelling losses in the quarters ahead. That risk is tempered by Global’s much steadier and recently expanded gasoline distribution and retail operations. But that stability has come at a cost of higher debt, interest costs and unit count. So while the current 13.8% yield isn’t nothing, it doesn’t seem especially attractive given high near-term risk and limited upside. We got into this MLP for the convenience store Slushies but ended up with a railyard’s worth of useless metal. And that means it’s time to move on. GLP is a Sell from the Growth Portfolio.

Magellan Midstream Partners (NYSE: MMP) reported a 3.5% year-over-year rise in fourth-quarter distributable cash flow to a record, as rising volumes on recently completed crude pipelines in Texas offset weaker refined fuel shipments. The distribution rose 13% in a year’s time, currently yielding 4.6% based  on a unit price that’s back at breakeven year-to-date after a 19% rebound since Feb. 11. The distribution coverage was 1.44x for the fourth quarter and 1.38x for all of 2015. Magellan forecast a 5% decline in distributable cash flow for 2016 but still expects to increase the distribution 10% this year and at least 8% in 2017, which would result in coverage of 1.2x based on its forecasts. Conservative pick MMP is the #4 Best Buy below $80.

PBF Logistics (NYSE: PBFX) reported fourth-quarter distributable cash flow 21% higher than a year earlier, while the unit count rose 11% in a year’s time. The gain, largely attributable to the cash generated by the assets recently purchased from its sponsor, resulted in 1.37x coverage on a distribution increased 24% from a year ago. With the unit price down 8% in 2016 (but up 24% since Feb. 18), the current annualized yield stands at 8.4%. Additional growth should come from continued dropdowns from the sponsor, which has recently acquired two more refineries. Growth pick PBFX is the #7 Best Buy below $28.

Targa Resources (NYSE: TRGP) tempered prior 2016 guidance after delivering fourth-quarter results, forecasting little if any growth in gas plant inlet volumes and backtracking on expectations of 10% dividend growth this year. But the share price has been on a tear all the same, jumping 82% since Feb. 11. The stock is now up nearly 4% for the year, leaving the current annualized yield at 13%. Although the company has a long-term future, this looks like an excellent selling opportunity ahead of further declines in domestic oil and gas production. Growth pick TRGP is a Sell.

 

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