A Little Good, a Lot of Ugly

It’s time to close the books on 2015, not a moment too soon. Investments recommended by The Energy Strategist last year averaged a loss of 18.7% including distributions while we were recommending them.

It says something about the depth of this energy slump that this was still good enough to beat our benchmarks. The Energy Select SPDR ETF (NYSE: XLE) lost 21% on the same total return basis in 2015, while the smaller-cap SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (NYSE: XOP) shed 35.5%.

The midstream sector we counted on as a safe harbor in a storm proved anything but: the Alerian MLP Index lost 32.6% including its components’ distributions.

In terms of portfolio management, we added the most value by pruning early and often. Some recommendations dropped early on while they were still up year-to-date or down a lot less than they would end up certainly helped our relative performance.

So did the refiners, which as predicted more than a year ago, did end up profiting hugely from discounted crude, their margins swelling as fuel prices fell more slowly. We turned bearish on that sector in September a couple of  months too soon, but it has since justified our skepticism as the crude glut has translated into oversupply of refined products. Tanker investments also provided some solace.

The Conservative portfolio didn’t live up to its name, breeding more losses than the baskets deemed riskier because of its exposure to the midstream processors. Kinder Morgan (NYSE: KMI) paced the second-half collapse, while the refinery pipeline play Delek Logistics (NYSE: DKL) was the lone positive.

Despite those setbacks, we remain bullish on the midstream names given the sector’s relatively steady cash flows, which should limit its downside for the remainder of this bear market.     

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The Growth Portfolio benefited from its outsized exposure to the refiners, with Valero (NYSE: VLO), Tesoro (NYSE: TSO) and HollyFrontier (NYSE: HFC) all returning more than 20% before we showed them the door. Cameron International (NYSE: CAM) bucked the receding tide thanks to the buyout by Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB), and renewable energy project developer First Solar (NYSE: FSLR) was another notable winner.

But these exceptions could not offset the pounding of even the well-financed drillers such as Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN) and Antero Resources (NYSE: AR), as well as the rout of former midstream champs Energy Transfer Equity (NYSE: ETE) and Targa Resources (NYSE: TRGP).

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Refiners, tankers and the odd solar play also did what they could for the Aggressive Portfolio, but not enough to negate the collapses of Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK) and SunEdison (NYSE: SUNE).

Our focus in the new year remains squarely on sidestepping such disasters, while looking out for favorable long-term opportunities amid the mayhem. We continue to believe the midstream space holds more than its share of the latter.

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