A Market Disconnect on Pipelines

A year into a vicious oil and gas slump, energy pipeline and tanker operators reported mounting losses over the last month.

At least that’s what a casual observer would assume from their deeply depressed share prices, which have not improved since the third-quarter numbers came out.

In fact, midstream profits have remained buoyant while those of the downstream crude and fuel shippers have boomed. The combination of resilient revenue and sinking share prices has translated into sharply higher yields. And while many investors are shunning these at the moment, that will change in a hurry once energy prices lift, as they will.

In the meantime, we are getting fairly compensated for the remaining downside risk in this howler of a bear market. Master limited partnerships on the whole increased their third-quarter per-unit distributions nearly 7% year-over-year by one estimate, right in line with the average growth rate over the last decade. The 43 MLPs and companies with predictable payouts recommended by our sister publication MLP Profits (and including all those cited below) raised their distributions by an average of more than 13% over the last year.

The yield on the Alerian MLP Index is up to 8.5%, and it is largely backed by reliable arrangements extremely likely to outlast whatever surprises the markets might spring next year.

Annualized Yields By Index

151130tesmidstreams

Source: Alerian

But don’t take our word for any of this; judge for yourself based on the third-quarter reports and guidance from the midstream and downstream providers we currently recommend.

AmeriGas Partners (NYSE: APU) fell short of its annual profit forecast as margin gains failed to fully offset the loss of 6% of heating degree days across its service territory relative to a normal year, and a 9% falloff relative to 2014. The leading U.S. propane distributor still delivered 1.16x coverage on a distribution currently yielding 9.4%. The payout rose 4.5% this year and should easily maintain that pace in 2016 based on the partnership’s forecast for 9% EBITDA growth in the new fiscal year. The unit price is down 25% from January’s record high and just off the nearly three-year low set Friday. Buy Conservative pick APU below $51.

Capital Products Partners (NASDAQ: CPLP) reported an 13% year-over-year increase in adjusted operating surplus, providing 1.04x coverage on the current annualized yield of 14.9%. The distribution rose 0.8% sequentially, in line with management’s goal of 2-3% annual growth.  The partnership took delivery of another containership toward the quarter’s end, bringing the number of such vessels in its fleet to 9, alongside 20 product tankers, 4 crude tankers and a bulker. Four products tankers were recontracted during the quarter at significantly higher rates, bringing charter coverage to 94% for 2015 and 79% in 2016. CPLP does have one unchartered containership currently in dry dock and is due to take possession of another redelivered containership next month. The CEO acknowledged recent weakness in container trade, but noted that CPLP could fully cover next year’s distribution growth target even if those ships remained idle for the entire year. Six product tankers and two crude Suezmaxes come off charter over the next year and are likely to be rechartered at higher rates. CPLP’s average charter has a remaining term of 6.7 years. The partnership is set to take delivery of another products tanker from its sponsor in January and has the right of first refusal on eight other newbuilds due over the next 18 months. The unit price is down 19% year-to-date and 35% from April’s crest. Aggressive pick CPLP is upgraded to a Buy below $7.

Delek Logistics Partners (NYSE: DKL) reported a 24% year-over-year increase in distributable cash flow, providing 1.46x coverage on a payout recently increased 16% year-over-year. With the unit price up less than 1% year-to-date but down 25% from the July high, the annualized yield is up to 6.4%. With debt leverage still relatively low at 3.1x EBITDA, the partnership is on the hunt for third-party acquisitions even as it pursues two pipeline projects scheduled to be completed late next year. Buy Conservative pick and #6 Best Buy DKL below the reduced limit of $40.

DHT Holdings (NYSE: DHT) earned more in the third quarter than it did for all of last year, as its VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers) fetched a charter rate of nearly $60,000 a day, nearly double the average nine months ago. The dividend rose to 18 cents a share from 15 cents in the immediately prior quarter, while net income plus noncash depreciation and amortization added up to roughly 50 cents a share. With six new fully financed VLCCs due for delivery by the end of the year set to enlarge DHT’s fleet to 24 ships, cash flow is certain to shoot up so long as rates hold up. The company is committed to paying out at least 60% of its net income as dividends, and to using the rest of the current surplus to pay down debt.  With the share price up 2% year-to-date but down 16% from the July peak, the current annualized yield is up to 9.6%. Buy Aggressive pick and #7 Best Buy DHT below $10.

Energy Transfer Equity (NYSE: ETE) reported a 39% increase in adjusted distributable cash flow for the third quarter, providing 1.09x coverage for a payout recently hiked 37% year-over-year. With the unit price down 34% year-to-date and 46% below June’s record, the annualized yield has risen to 6%. On the earnings conference call analysts repeatedly asked whether and how ETE might help its largest affiliate, Energy Transfer Partners (NYSE: ETP), finance a heavy 2016 project slate. CEO Kelcy Warren responded that the general partner would “do whatever is necessary,” likely in the form of incentive distribution rights deferrals as has happened in the past. ETE also disclosed that it’s agreed to a $6.5 billion syndication loan for the pending purchase of Williams (NYSE: WMB). The one-year bank facility, renewable for another year at ETE’s option, carries a maximum interest rate of 5.5%. Energy Transfer’s recent annual analyst day was covered here last week. Buy Growth pick ETE below $27.

Energy Transfer Partners (NYSE: ETP) reported a distributable cash flow shortfall attributed to a tax benefit reversal, the consequences of low commodity prices and some unplanned processing plant outages. These drove third-quarter coverage down to 0.84x, and 0.97x year-to-date. Excluding the presumed one-time effects, coverage would have been “right at the 1x, maybe just a couple of basis points below,” the CFO said on the conference call. Nevertheless, ETP hiked its distribution 8.2% year-over-year, for an 11% annualized yield. The unit price is down 41% year-to-date. On Nov. 16, ETP announced  the sale of its remaining fuel retail assets to the affiliated Sunoco (NYSE: SUN) MLP for $2.2 billion in cash. Proceeds will finance nearly half of the partnership’s $5 billion capital spending slate for 2016, with only a “modest amount” of the remainder to be raised from equity. The transaction is not expected to affect ETP’s cash flow. Buy Conservative pick ETP below the reduced limit of $48.

Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE: EPD) posted flat gross margin and distributable cash flow year-over-year, aided by contributions from $8 billion in acquisitions over the last year and gains in NGL shipping and LPG logistics. Those positives offset the drag from lower NGL prices on gas processing and NGL fractionation. The distribution coverage was 1.25x on a payout raised 5.5% year-over-year. The annualized yield is up to 6% with the unit price down 29% year-to-date, though it’s up 16% from the late September low. Debt swelled 14% over the last year, to 4.1 times EBITDA. The partnership is taking its typically long-term view in pushing ahead with next year’s slate of projects costing as much as $3.5 billion. Buy Conservative pick and #5 Best Buy EPD below the reduced limit of $34.

EQT (NYSE: EQT) reported a 46% drop in adjusted operating cash flow, as the 27% production increase failed to fully offset the 55% slide in the realized price of natural gas for a leading Marcellus driller. The balance sheet remained one of the industry’s strongest, featuring $1.5 billion in cash, net debt at  modest 14% of capitalization and an undrawn, unsecured $1.5 billion credit facility. Preliminary plans call for 2016 production growth of 15-20% at a capital spending cost “a fair bit lower” than in 2015. Meanwhile, encouraging early results from the Utica exploration program hint at returns as good as those in the core Marcellus, leading EQT to halt drilling on less promising terrain. The share price is down 25% year-to-date. Buy Growth pick and #3 Best Buy EQT below the reduced limit of $85.

EQT GP Holdings (NYSE: EQGP) raised its distribution 13% from the second quarter in its first hike since going public in May. A proxy for EQT’s general and limited partner interests in its midstream MLP affiliate EQT Midstream Partners (NYSE: EQM), EQGP is targeting annual distribution growth of at least 40% through 2017 with 1.0x coverage. The current annualized yield is 1.8%, but the quarterly payout should double in just 18 months. The share price is down 31% since the first post-IPO close. Buy Aggressive pick EQGP below the revised limit of $29.

EQT Midstream Partners (NYSE: EQM) posted a 59% year-over-year increase in adjusted EBITDA, boosted by EQT’s rising production volumes as well as a gathering system acquisition from its sponsor. That was enough for a coverage ratio of 1.63x on a distribution raised 22.7% in a year’s time. The partnership is targeting 20% distribution growth in each of the next two years. Fixed reservation fees cover 80% of transmission contracts accounting for 47% of recent revenue. These have a weighted average term of 16 years. The rest of the revenue comes mostly from EQT ship-or-pay gathering commitments with a 10-year term. The debt/EBITDA ratio is below 2, leaving lots of financial flexibility to bankroll a $3 billion organic project backlog. The annualized yield is up to 4% with the unit price down 23% year-to-date. It’s up 13% from September’s low, however. Buy Conservative pick EQM below $100.

EuroNav (NYSE: EURN) reported a 252% year-over-year increase in third-quarter EBITDA as the spot rates earned by its VLCC and Suezmax crude tankers doubled. It added a tanker in September to bring its fleet to 54, with three more fully funded ships on order. Under its policy of paying dividends equal to 80% of net operating income, EuroNav distributed 87 cents a share in 2015 for a trailing yield of 6.7%. The next semiannual dividend based on results from the second half of 2015 will be paid in May. EuroNav earned 46 cents a share in the third quarter. Dividends are subject to a Belgian tax withholding of 25%, though U.S. investors can apply through their broker to reclaim 10%. The share price is up 6% since the January U.S. IPO but down 19% from October’s high. Buy Aggressive pick and #8 Best Buy EURN below $18.

Global Partners (NYSE: GLP) reported a 43% decline in distributable cash flow, as wholesale margins pinched by the coastal refineries’ waning demand for oil trains from the Bakken and rising interest expense more than offset gains from the recently expanded network of affiliated filling stations. The distribution coverage declined to 1.25x, hurt as well by the 24% increase in common units over the last year. The distribution rose 6.9% in a year’s time and a disappointing 0.7% sequentially in recognition of the downturn in the wholesale business. If future increases are similarly modest, annual payout growth could slow from more than 8% recently to 3% or so. With units down 25% year-to-date and 27% over the last month, the annualized yield is up to 11.2%. Meanwhile, as a result of the additional share issuance and incentive distribution rights, the general partner’s share of the profits rose 74% year-over-year. Growth pick GLP is downgraded to Hold.

Kinder Morgan (NYSE: KMI) has been taken to the woodshed since lowering dividend growth expectations for 2016 to a range of 6-10%, from prior guidance of 10% increases for years to come. The midstream giant is still delivering 15% dividend growth this year but coverage slipped to 1.0x in the latest quarter as low crude prices hurt the profitability of enhanced oil recovery via carbon dioxide flooding. Kinder Morgan’s subsequent sale of a convertible offering with a yield near 10% raised $1.6 billion in badly needed growth financing but highlighted the rising cost of capital for the heavily indebted company. Debt is at nearly six times annual EBITDA. The share price is down 47% from April’s peak and 25% since Kinder Morgan reported six weeks ago. Yet EBITDA was down just 1% in a year’s time and perhaps 10% excluding gains from acquisitions and expansions. The annualized yield is up to 8.7%. For more on Kinder Morgan, see a recent Energy Letter portfolio update. Buy Conservative pick KMI below $35.

Magellan Midstream Partners (NYSE: MMP) reported a 25% jump in distributable cash flow on the strength of record refined fuel pipeline volumes and robust demand for its crude pipelines and marine terminals. The distribution coverage was 1.32x on a payout increased 14.2% year-over-year, for a current annualized yield of 4.9%. Magellan modestly raised its annual profit guidance while sticking with plans to increase the distribution 15% this year and at least 10% in 2016. The unit price is down 24% year-to-date but up 14% from the September low. Buy Conservative pick and #4 Best Buy MMP below $90.

MarkWest Energy Partners (NYSE: MWE)  scheduled a unitholder vote on the proposed merger with MPLX (NYSE: MPLX) for Dec. 1, even as a co-founder and owner of a 0.7% stake in the Marcellus midstream leader launched a campaign against the combination. In response to the factual claim by former CEO John Fox that the merged MLP would offer a significantly lower yield and be burdened with onerous incentive distribution rights, MPLX sponsor Marathon Petroleum (NYSE: MPC) raised the cash portion of its offer for the second time in a week on Nov. 17. It now proposes to pay MWE holders $6.20 per unit in cash, up from the $3.37 per unit proposed in July. But while that increases the cash payout to $1.3 billion, the total value of the deal has declined by more the $5 billion in four months as a result of the drop in the MPLX unit price. In addition to the cash, MWE holders have been offered 1.09 MPLX units for each MWE unit. Three institutional investors with a combined stake of more than 15% in MarkWest have already backed the merger, though Marathon wouldn’t have sweetened the pot twice, or even once, if a vote in favor of the deal were certain. We recommended selling a partial stake in Conservative pick MWE in July; hold the remainder.

NuStar Energy (NYSE: NS) reported a 1% increase in distributable cash flow from continuing operations, and 1.05x coverage on a distribution kept level for more than four years. NuStar also offered a disappointing forecast for 2016, projecting flat cash flow barely sufficient to cover distributions at the current level. The main culprit was the decline in crude production in the Eagle Ford, which had been the primary focus of NuStar’s growth hopes. Management indicated pipeline throughput on its Eagle Ford system are down 15% from the peak seen in April, though volumes have been flat for several months and are expected to remain so next year. The Eagle Ford slowdown is also hitting NuStar’s terminal profits at nearby Corpus Christi, Texas, though the partnership continues to develop a port project there. The unit price has dropped 21% since the partnership reported less than a month ago and 31% year-to-date. The annualized yield is up to 10.9%. Buy Growth pick NS below the reduced limit of $46.

NuStar GP Holdings (NYSE: NSH) reported a 2% year-over-year decline in distributable cash flow, leaving NuStar Energy’s (NYSE: NS) general partner with a coverage ratio of 0.97x on its distribution. The annualized yield is up to 8.8%. The unit price is down 28% year-to-date. Buy Growth pick NSH below the reduced limit of $27.

Scorpio Tankers (NYSE: STNG) posted third-quarter net income of $85 million and adjusted EBITDA of $151 million, up from adjusted EBITDA of $25 million a year ago. The daily time charter equivalent rose from $15,000 to nearly $27,000 in a year’s time on a greatly expanded fleet now made up of 79 owned product tankers and 13 chartered-in vessels, with another 12 on order. The quarterly dividend was left at 12.5 cents per share, for a current annualized yield of 5.8%. Management noted some market softening early in the fourth quarter, but expects a winter season somewhere between “OK” and “great” within a longer-term industry uptrend. While Scorpio is prioritizing debt refinancing and share buybacks in the near term, dividend growth is on the longer-term agenda. The quarterly dividend amounted to 19% of the operating cash flow for the latest quarter. The stock is nearly flat year-to-date but down 25% from the July peak.  Buy Aggressive pick STNG below $12.

SemGroup (NYSE: SEMG) reported a 4% decline in third-quarter EBITDA, on a consolidated basis with its sponsored Rose Rock Midstream (NYSE: RRMS) MLP. Canadian gas processing and an equity ownership stake in NGL logistics provider NGL Energy (NYSE: NGL) were the main drags on performance, offset by diminished losses in crude storage. SemGroup’s quarterly dividend of 45 cents a share, paid Nov. 24, has increased 50% in a year’s time, and was backed by coverage of “well over 1.6x,” as described by management. The current annualized yield is at 5.2% after a 49% share price decline year-to-date.  Growth pick SEMG is upgraded to a Buy below $45.

Spectra Energy (NYSE: SE) reported a 10% year-over-year drop in ongoing EBITDA, as gains in the U.S. gas transmission business at the affiliated Spectra Energy Partners (NYSE: SEP) MLP partially offset declines in gas processing in the U.S. as well as Canada. Third-quarter distributable cash flow dipped 6% year-over-year, but in the year-to-date still offered 1.45x coverage on dividends increased 10.4% from a year earlier. Spectra is forecasting 1.2x coverage for the year, followed by 1.0x in 2016-17 as a higher tax rate takes its toll. That would still permit dividend growth of 9% next year and in 2017, based on management forecasts. The annualized yield is up to 5.6% with the share price down 28% year-to-date.  Buy Conservative pick SE below the reduced limit of $32.

Sunoco Logistics Partners (NYSE: SXL) reported an 8% year-over-year rise in distributable cash flow, as a new Permian Basin pipeline and strong terminals traffic more than made up for the disappearance of crude gathering profits. The distribution coverage was down 1.14x on a payout that still rose nearly 20% year-over-year. The annualized yield is up to 6.6%. The unit price is down 33% year-to-date. The CEO is admittedly one of the more bullish midstream executives out there, suggesting that the crude market will start rebalancing as early as the first half of 2016. His capital spending slate for 2016 reflects that optimism, matching this year’s $2.5 billion in investments. Buy Conservative pick SXL below the reduced limit of $36.

Targa Resources (NYSE: TRGP) increased its dividend 24% year-over-year, for an annualized yield of 9.3% at a unit price now down 63% year-to-date. But the big news was its agreement to acquire the affiliated Targa Resources Partners (NYSE: NGLS) MLP in an all-stock deal designed to curtail the combined payouts and extend the company’s tax shield. The merged company would sticking with Targa’s prior plan to increase dividends 15% next year, followed by growth of 7% in 2017 and 10% in 2018, all with a modest surplus of cash flow coverage the standalone NGLS lacked, according to Targa’s new projections. While the reduced distribution yield will certainly pinch investor incomes, it should also allow Targa to retain and reinvest more of its cash flow at a time when equity and debt fundraising has become expensive. Buy Growth pick TRGP below the reduced limit of $50.

Teekay Tankers (NYSE: TNK) reported net income attributable to shareholders of 30 cents a share in the third quarter, up from 3 cents a share a year earlier. Free cash flow nearly quadrupled as charter rates remained way up year-over-year. Product tankers made sequential headway as well, while crude tanker rates pulled back a bit from springtime highs during the seasonally weaker summer period. The CEO offered an upbeat outlook on tanker demand and rates so far in the fourth quarter and into 2016. The quarterly dividend stayed level at 3 cents a share, for an annualized yield of 1.7% at a share price that’s risen 39% year-to-date. The company has prioritized paying down debt. We recommended selling a partial stake in Aggressive pick TNK in July; hold the remainder.

TransCanada (NYSE: TRP) reported an 11% decline in net income per common share, while comparable earnings per share slipped less than 2% after factoring out $38 million in unrealized hedging losses and restructuring costs. Higher spot shipments on the Keystone crude pipelines offset lower power generation profits in Canada. While the third-quarter dividend was up 8%, something got lost in translation from the weaker Canadian dollar to its rallying U.S. namesake, leaving the distribution on NYSE-traded TRP shares down 8% in U.S. dollar terms. The big multinational pipeline and power plants operator is targeting continued annual dividend increases of 8-10% through 2017. The yield on U.S.-traded shares is up to 5% with the share price down 36% year-to-date.  Conservative pick TRP is a Hold.

UBS E-TRACS 2x Monthly Leveraged Long Alerian MLP Index (NYSE: MLPL)  is down 59% year-to-date, though it has also returned 11% of its year-end 2014 price in distributions paid out this year. The issuer of the exchange-traded note, UBS, recently suspended the issuance of new units, fraying the link between the MLPL and the performance of the underlying MLP index. Aggressive pick MLPL is downgraded to Hold; we’ll look to cut our losses and get out some months after the inevitable, if unpredictable, midstream rally finally arrives.

UGI (NYSE: UGI) matched last year’s adjusted net income but fell well short of its annual guidance for diluted earnings per share, as warmer and less extreme weather dinged energy marketing profits as well as the bottom line of the affiliated propane distributor AmeriGas, while the continued expansion of its European propane business drove up expenses. On an adjusted basis excluding mark-to-market derivatives losses, management forecast earnings-per-share growth of 7-14% in the new fiscal year. At the midpoint of that range the payout ratio would be 40% based on the current dividend yielding an annualized 2.6%. UGI, which also operates a Pennsylvania gas utility and manages pipeline expansion projects in the Marcellus basin, aims to increase its dividend by 4% annually. The share price is down 9% year-to-date but has nearly doubled since April of 2012, when it embarked on a rally that produced a record high late last year. Buy Conservative pick and #2 Best Buy UGI below $45.

Williams (NYSE: WMB) reported a 21% jump in third-quarter adjusted EBITDA, benefiting from the completion of new onshore and offshore gas pipelines as well as the restart of the Geismar olefins plant in the past year. The third-quarter dividend was up 14% year over-year despite dividend coverage of 0.91x. That’s expected to improve to 1.01x for the full year. The case for owning Williams as a discounted proxy for its pending acquirer Energy Transfer Equity (NYSE: ETE) was outlined here last month. The unit price is down 19% year-to-date, and the annualized yield is at 7%. Buy Growth pick and #1 Best Buy WMB below $45.

 

Stock Talk

Add New Comments

You must be logged in to post to Stock Talk OR create an account