Making It Up on Volume

We’ve argued for months that pipeline operators offer some of the most attractive risk-adjusted opportunities for energy investing following the late 2014 sell-off, and the first batch of first-quarter earnings reports has only reinforced that conviction.

Midstream energy shippers located in the right basins, which is to say the ones with the lowest production costs and the highest potential returns for drillers, are not only not seeing any drop-off in business but are in fact reporting growth above expectations.

Take EQT Midstream (NYSE: EQM), which is benefiting from its sponsor EQT’s (NYSE: EQT) decision to keep tapping the choicest acreage in the Marcellus Shale at a hectic pace, using the 37% year-over-year production volume surge to offset a comparable decline in realized gas prices.

With unit costs continuing to decline as a result of discounting by service providers and continuing  drilling innovation, EQT’s first-quarter operating income was off just 12% year-over-year.  Included in that was the 56% surge in midstream segment profits attributable in part to EQM and driven almost entirely by higher gathering and shipping volumes from EQT as well as other gas drillers in the basin.

The gathering system at the core of EQT’s turf that was dropped down to EQM last year pushed that MLP’s first-quarter cash earnings 5% above the prior forecast. The partnership’s first-quarter distribution was up 24% over the prior year, and EQM is now targeting annual growth of 20% through 2017.

Until EQT spins off EQM’s general partnership interests into a separate MLP later this year, EQM will continue to offer the most leverage to growth in Marcellus volumes, which are steadily chocking off the output of gas from less economical wells elsewhere.

EQT Midstream has produced a total return of more than 100% during its 20 months in the Conservative Portfolio, and isn’t done. We’re upgrading it from a Hold to a Buy below $100.  EQM sponsor EQT has traded better of late as well, and remains a Buy below $99 in the Growth Portfolio.

Meanwhile, recent Growth Portfolio addition NuStar Energy (NYSE: NS) continues to benefit from increased crude volumes shipped by its expanded pipeline system in the Eagle Ford, where the best situated drillers continue to ramp up output, taking advantage of declining unit costs and proximity to the Gulf Coast’s large refining hubs.

NuStar now expects Eagle Ford crude shipping profits to increase by some $45 million, or 18%, year-over-year, and $10 million more than it forecast three month ago. Its distribution coverage improved from 1.12x in the fourth quarter of 2014 to 1.25x in the first quarter reported this week, reinforcing our view that distribution growth will resume soon after a four-year pause.

NuStar is up 8% since we recommended it on March 30. Continue buying NS below $70 and its general partner NuStar GP Holdings (NYSE: NSH) below $45.

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