To the Rescue: A Weaker Australian Dollar

Australia’s economy is forging ahead, despite the downturn in commodity prices. While the slump in iron ore, oil and other commodity prices will slow Australia’s growth rate in 2015, there is a silver lining: A weaker Australian dollar (the “aussie”) will benefit a large swath of the country’s non-mining sector. In fact, growth estimates for Australia are hovering around 3% for 2015, not far off from those for the U.S.

1501_ae_if_gr_csl_revenue_mix_Down about 8% in 2014 (to 82 cents per 1 U.S. dollar), the aussie could well drop to 75 cents this year. A weaker currency will increase the sales and revenue of many Australian companies by: making Australian goods less expensive relative to competitors; and increasing the earnings of Australian multinationals, as their U.S. dollars are translated back into aussies.

U.S. investors in Australian stocks and bonds do lose out from a weaker aussie. But we think the long-term benefits of staying invested in the Land Down Under are likely to offset this temporary setback. In the meantime, there are many Australian companies that will benefit from a weaker currency, including those we highlight below.

Positive Exposure

Australian companies with exposure to the U.S. dollar should begin to show improving results, starting with fourth-quarter 2014. Quite a few companies in our “How They Rate” listings are in this group.

To benefit even more from a weaker aussie, we’re adding Brambles Ltd., Incitec Pivot Ltd., Macquarie Group and ResMed Ltd. to our coverage universe.

Fertilizer company Incitec Pivot competes with imported products with pricing that won’t be nearly as attractive, thanks to a lower Australian dollar. At the same time, Incitec’s exports will become less expensive, and those sales will be worth more translated back into Australian dollars.

Brambles is a supply-chain logistics company operating in more than 50 countries. It manages the deployment of the pallets, crates and containers used in international trade. Profit growth of 9% to 12% is expected for fiscal 2015, driven largely by expansion into the U.K. and exposure to accelerating U.S. economic growth.

Collapsing oil and gas prices—on top of a weaker Australian dollar—could drive substantial profit growth at Macquarie Group, as heightened volatility boosts trading income in the investment bank’s energy markets division.

Health care companies with a large amount of foreign earnings, such as CSL, Sonic and ResMed, are also reaping the benefits of a weaker aussie. These are the most conservative Australia-based options for exposure to the U.S. dollar and the U.S. economy.

ResMed makes products to treat sleep disorders, particularly obstructive sleep apnea, and is tapping into a potentially huge global market.

CSL’s  plasma-based vaccines and anti-venoms remain unrivaled globally. The company has generated average earnings-per-share growth of 21% over the past six years, and it’s on track for 16% growth in fiscal 2015 and 2016.

What about Sonic Healthcare Ltd.? This is one our top picks for new money right now. We are adding it to the AE Portfolio under Conservative Holdings. For our take on Sonic, see this month’s Sector Spotlight, on page 1.

IF New coverage table

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