Within a couple of weeks, I will offer up my predictions for 2015 in the energy markets. I don’t think I can hope to match last year’s perfect record, but my thoughts have been crystallizing around a few themes. I want to share them with you before I share them with the rest of the world.

I have (correctly) predicted higher natural gas prices for two years in a row, but last month I began warning that two of the three winter scenarios — mild or normal winter — could cause some real softness in gas prices given the current near-normal inventory levels.

Now that we are seeing a start to winter that is warmer than average, natural gas prices are falling fast.  Since late November, natural gas futures are down a steep 27%. Natural gas dynamics are very different than those for crude, but this sell-off is reminiscent of the crude slump that began in mid-summer. Further, low crude oil prices will lessen the incentive to have rigs drilling for crude oil, and we may swing some back to natural gas.

In fact, according to the Baker Hughes (NYSE: BHI) rig count data, for most of the year about 16-18% of all rigs were drilling for natural gas. In the past month, that number has broken back above 18%. A modest shift, but add in the mild winter conditions so far and the odds favor continued softness in the natural gas markets.

I will give it another week or so before I finalize this, but I am probably predicting lower average gas prices for 2015 — my first such bearish forecast in three years. The only scenario I see giving support to natural gas prices in the short-term is a winter like we saw last year, and that was unusual. I remain a long-term natural gas bull for factors I have covered on many occasions, such as rising LNG exports and utility switching from coal, but there is a risk of sub-$3/MMBtu natural gas by spring without an unusually cold winter.

Second, I don’t believe the current level of oil prices is sustainable. Too much shale production is at risk at these prices, and we are already seeing oil producers across the board cut exploration and production budgets for 2015. Further, low oil prices stimulate demand.

Last year I didn’t feel $100/bbl oil was sustainable, and this year I don’t think sub-$60/bbl oil is sustainable. I still think a likely trading range for oil over the next three to five years has a floor at around $70/bbl. But prices tend to overshoot in both directions, so the current softness may linger into the middle of next year. I have been early on these calls before. I thought we would see oil prices decline in 2013, and I predicted both Brent and WTI would be down. Brent was in fact down, but WTI rose 4% on the year.

Still, I think it will be clear over the next few months that the cure for low prices is underway. Thus, while I don’t think oil prices will go above the 2014 average of a range that spanned a $50/bbl range — I do think they will average more than $60/bbl. I also think that despite comments from Saudi Arabia, pressure from other OPEC members will cause the Saudis to ease off on production. So an average oil price above current levels is a likely 2015 prediction.

There are several predictions that we can derive from this one. I think shale oil production will advance once more because of the projects already completed or well underway, but I think growth is going to slow. I think we will see a decent recovery in oil stocks as crude prices firm up. I also think OPEC will announce a major production cut.

Energy legislation is at least theoretically possible in 2015, but I am not yet ready to go out on a limb on proposals like the Keystone XL Pipeline or the repeal of the crude oil export ban. Republicans may very well pass legislation, but both the presidential veto and the market price for oil pose obstacles to the outcomes such bills seek to promote.

One prediction I made for 2014 was that small biofuel producer KiOR would go bankrupt. There is another small biofuel producer that I think will go bankrupt in 2015, but it’s in somewhat better shape than KiOR was and could easily push its day of reckoning into 2016. So I probably won’t make that prediction.

But I will offer a company-specific prediction. I first offered this in a 2010 article shortly after the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. Historically, companies have a difficult time recovering from a monumental disaster. The corporate brand will be damaged for a very long time. Twenty-five years after the Exxon Valdez oil spill in Prince William Sound, Alaska, I know people who still won’t buy gasoline from ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM).

While that incident didn’t fatally hurt ExxonMobil, there is no question that long-term earnings were hurt. ExxonMobil rivals like Conservative Portfolio holding Chevron (NYSE: CVX) continue to outperform the company. But ExxonMobil stayed the course, withstood the public outrage and the legal fallout, and they are certainly not in danger of extinction today.

But most companies will find that it is better to start fresh under a new name. While it was without a doubt a disaster with a higher immediate human cost, the case of Union Carbide may be instructive. In 1984 an accident at a Union Carbide plant in Bhopal, India immediately killed 2,259 people, but it has been estimated that ultimately more than 15,000 people died as a result of the incident. As a result of this tragedy, Union Carbide’s reputation was destroyed. It continued to function as an independent company for a number of years as the inevitable lawsuits played out, but this former component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average was ultimately swallowed up by Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW).

I see a similar fate for BP (NYSE: BP). It might not happen in 2015, but the company continues to suffer legal setbacks, its total liability is still uncertain, and its reputation in the U.S. is forever damaged. The carefully crafted image – rebranded “Beyond Petroleum” from British Petroleum — now looks comical given two major disasters suffered by BP in the past 10 years. (The other being the 2005 Texas City explosion that killed 15 people and cost BP well over $1 billion in compensation to victims.)

Already BP isn’t the same company that it was in 2010. Bits and pieces continue to be sold off, including that Texas City refinery where the explosion took place in 2005. Its market capitalization has been nearly halved in the past six years. But BP continues to function under the BP name.

So I am leaning toward predicting that BP will not end the year as BP. I believe it will be sold or merged. Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS-A) has been mentioned as a potential suitor. BP and its near $120 billion market cap would be a huge bite to swallow, and the integrated supermajors like Shell, Chevron, and ExxonMobil are the only realistic suitors outside of partially state-owned oil companies like PetroChina or Russia’s Lukoil, which would encounter stiffer political opposition.

It’s possible the BP will survive as ExxonMobil did, but it still has a tough road in front of it.

I will be going out on a limb on this one, as I did with KiOR.

There you have an early look at my thoughts as I try to crystallize them into specific, measurable, and hopefully actionable predictions for 2015.

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